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「Probability Table」：修訂間差異
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|80% | |80% | ||
|'''The 80/20 Rule:''' in a trend, 80% of reversal attempt fails; in a TR, 80% of BO attempt fails.<ref>https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/price-action-fundamentals/video-13a-always-in/</ref> | | | ||
* '''The 80/20 Rule:''' in a trend, 80% of reversal attempt fails; in a TR, 80% of BO attempt fails.<ref>https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/price-action-fundamentals/video-13a-always-in/</ref> | |||
* when big gap down, 85% chance of PB in 1st two hours. | |||
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|70% | |70% | ||
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*if bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of Triangle<ref>[[Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High|''Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High'']]</ref>. | *if bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of Triangle<ref>[[Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High|''Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High'']]</ref>. | ||
*70% outside down days closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only 20% closes above middle point<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/''</ref>. | *70% outside down days closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only 20% closes above middle point<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/''</ref>. | ||
*when big gap down, 70% chance of swing down after 10am. | |||
*''if yesterday was climactic, there is 75% chance of trading range for a few hours today''<ref>discord from brad wolff on 7-20-2022</ref>''.'' | |||
* when big gap down, 75% chance trending trading range day. | |||
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|60% | |60% | ||
| 行 53： | 行 55： | ||
*60% chance a climactic sell off for 15-20 bars on the open evolves into TR<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/''</ref>. | *60% chance a climactic sell off for 15-20 bars on the open evolves into TR<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/''</ref>. | ||
*60% of trending TRs reverse and test into early TR<ref>BTC 45A</ref>. This means traders sell the high of prior TR and scale in higher can make money. | *60% of trending TRs reverse and test into early TR<ref>BTC 45A</ref>. This means traders sell the high of prior TR and scale in higher can make money. | ||
*when big gap down, 60% chance of swing down in 1st hour. | |||
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|50% | |50% | ||
| 行 66： | 行 69： | ||
|An '''average''' MTR setup has about a 30% chance of a small loss, and a 30% chance of a small profit<ref>[[CHAPTER 3 Major Trend Reversal]]</ref>. | |An '''average''' MTR setup has about a 30% chance of a small loss, and a 30% chance of a small profit<ref>[[CHAPTER 3 Major Trend Reversal]]</ref>. | ||
Major bull surprise usually only have 30% chance of a bear trend<ref>https://www.papals.live/index.php?title=20221102&venotify=created</ref>. | Major bull surprise usually only have 30% chance of a bear trend<ref>https://www.papals.live/index.php?title=20221102&venotify=created</ref>. | ||
when big gap down, only '''35%''' chance gap will close today. | |||
|- | |- | ||
|20% | |20% | ||
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* ''only 20% of time the first bar leads to H or L of the day''<ref>''Brad wolf, discord chat, 7-22-2022''</ref> | *''only 20% of time the first bar leads to H or L of the day''<ref>''Brad wolf, discord chat, 7-22-2022''</ref> | ||
* '''The 80/20 Rule:''' in a trend, 20% of reversal succeed; in a TR, 20% of BO succeed. | *'''The 80/20 Rule:''' in a trend, 20% of reversal succeed; in a TR, 20% of BO succeed. | ||
* 25% of the time after a buy climax day, you get an hour or two rally the next day<ref>''PriceActionRoles mentioned this on 8-1-2022: This specific open is explained in BTC Brooks Course Chapter 48A-B-C-D-E-F (6 videos. video 5 and 6)''</ref>. | |||
|- | |- | ||
|10% | |10% | ||
|10% of time, market is in breakout, price moves fast to find new TR<ref>BTC 02C.</ref>. | |10% of time, market is in breakout, price moves fast to find new TR<ref>BTC 02C.</ref>. | ||
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