Probability Table

来自BPAX Lab

Probability Table

Probability Table
Probability Items
90%
  • 90% bars on the chart are within trading range[1].
  • In a strong bull trend day (more than 50 bars above MA), 99.5% of the time there are at least 3 bars with L below EMA.
  • No matter how strong the trend is, 99.5% of the day it gets to EMA sometime during the day.
  • No matter how strong the trend is, 99.5% of the day there is at least one bar closes below the EMA. Example of the 0.5%: 20221122.
  • 90% of the time the BO phase is followed by a PB, and then a channel(aka SC) or TR, only 10% of the chance the bull BO reverses, usually as a parabolic wedge top. [2]
  • There is 90% chance of at least one swing trade everyday that starts with a good signal bar, typically goes 40% of recent average day's range[3], has two or more legs, has a reward at least twice the risk, and lasts at least 1-2 hours.
80%
  • The 80/20 Rule: in a trend, 80% of reversal attempt fails; in a TR, 80% of BO attempt fails.[4]
  • when big gap down, 85% chance of PB in 1st two hours.
  • 80% of the time when pullback to EMA comes after 40 or more bars below the EMA, there will be a selloff that will test the low, however only in 20% of the time the SPBRT sells off to far below the old low with the day closing on the low. Example 20221206.
70%
  • if a bar is exceptionally bigger than other bars(i.e. surprise bar), 70% chance of MM, especially when it has ok FT (at least doji).[5][6]
    • after 2 or more consecutive big bull bars closing on their highs, and with little overlap, there is 70% chance of at least a MM up[7].
  • probability of success of 70 percent or better (reward has to be at least half as big as risk just to break even):
    • Scalps, but since most traders cannot consistently pick trades with a 70 percent chance of success, they should trade a scalp only if the reward is at least as large as the risk. For example, if you believe that a two-point stop is needed in the Emini, take the trade only if at least a two-point reward is reasonable[8].
  • if bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of Triangle[9].
  • 70% outside down days closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only 20% closes above middle point[10].
  • when big gap down, 70% chance of swing down after 10am.
  • if yesterday was climactic, there is 75% chance of trading range for a few hours today[11].
  • when big gap down, 75% chance trending trading range day.
  • 75% chance the BO above a Bull Channel fails within the next 5 bars.
60%
  • Probability of success of 60 percent or better (reward has to be at least as big as risk to break even)[12]:
    • Buying a high 2 pullback to the moving average in a bull trend.
    • Selling a low 2 pullback to the moving average in a bear trend.
    • Buying a wedge bull flag pullback in a bull trend.
    • Selling a wedge bear flag pullback in a bear trend.
    • Buying a breakout pullback from a breakout of a bull flag in a bull trend.
    • Selling a breakout pullback from a breakout of a bear flag in a bear trend.
    • Buying a high 1 pullback in a strong bull spike in a bull trend, but not after a buy climax.
    • Selling a low 1 pullback in a strong bear spike in a bear trend, but not after a sell climax.
    • Shorting at the top of a trading range, especially if it is a second entry.
    • Buying at the bottom of a trading range, especially if it is a second entry.
    • Trend reversals:
      • After a strong break of the trend line, look for a reversal after a test of the trend's extreme where there is a good reversal signal bar. Traders are looking to buy a higher low or a lower low at a bottom, or to short a higher high or a lower high at a top.[13]
      • Strong final flag reversal.
      • Buying a third or fourth push down in a bear stairs pattern for a test of the low of the prior push down.
      • Selling a third or fourth push up in a bull stairs pattern for a test of the high of the prior push up.
    • Entering using limit orders; this requires more experience reading charts, because the trader is entering in a market that is going in the opposite direction to the trade. However, experienced traders can reliably use limit or market orders with these setups:
      • Buying a bull spike in a strong bull breakout at the market or at the close of the bar, or on a limit order at or below the low of the prior bar[14] (entering in spikes requires a wider stop and the spike happens quickly, so this combination is difficult for many traders).
      • Selling a bear spike in a strong bear breakout at the market or at the close of the bar, or on a limit order at or above the high of the prior bar (entering in spikes requires a wider stop and the spike happens quickly, so this combination is difficult for many traders).
      • Buying a bear breakout at around a measured move, if the breakout is not too strong—for example, if the range is about four points tall in the Emini, buying on a limit order at four points below the range, risking four points, and expecting a test of the breakout point. Only very experienced traders should consider this.
      • Selling a bull breakout at around a measured move, if the breakout is not too strong—for example, if the range is about four points tall in the Emini, selling on a limit order at four points above the range, risking four points, and expecting a test of the breakout point. Only very experienced traders should consider this.
      • Buying at or below a low 1 or 2 weak signal bar on a limit order in a possible new bull trend after a strong reversal or at the bottom of a trading range.
      • Shorting at or above a high 1 or 2 weak signal bar on a limit order in a possible new bear trend after a strong reversal or at the top of a trading range.
      • Buying at or below the prior bar on a limit order in a quiet bull flag at the moving average.
      • Shorting at or above the prior bar on a limit order in a quiet bear flag at the moving average.
      • Buying below a bull bar that breaks above a bull flag, anticipating a breakout pullback.
      • Selling above a bear bar that breaks below a bear flag, anticipating a breakout pullback.
  • 60% chance a climactic sell off for 15-20 bars on the open evolves into TR[15].
  • 60% of trending TRs reverse and test into early TR[16]. This means traders sell the high of prior TR and scale in higher can make money.
  • when big gap down, 60% chance of swing down in 1st hour.
50%
  • 50% of strong moves on the open reverse.[17]
  • FOMC breakout has 50% chance of reversing, like a breakout on the open[18].
  • when yesterday was a buy climax, there is a 50% chance of follow through buying in next day starting from 1st hour[19]. Vice versa.
  • when there are 2 big bear bars late in the bear trend, 50% chance the selloff has ended(which means the probability is not high enough for a scalp) and 50% chance of one more small leg down. See example in Category:SX.
  • when market is in BOM, there is 50% chance successful breakout up or down, and then about a measured move based on the height of trading range. Also there is 50% chance 1st breakout up or down will reverse.
40%
  • An average MTR setup has about a 40% chance of leading to a profitable swing[20].
30%
  • An average MTR setup has about a 30% chance of a small loss, and a 30% chance of a small profit[21].
  • Major bull surprise usually only have 30% chance of a bear trend[22]. Vice versa[23].
  • when big gap down, only 35% chance gap will close today.
20%
  • only 20% of time the first bar leads to H or L of the day[24]
  • The 80/20 Rule: in a trend, 20% of reversal succeed; in a TR, 20% of BO succeed.
  • 25% of the time after a buy climax day, you get an hour or two rally the next day[25].
  • when there are 2 big bear bars late in the bear trend, only 20% chance of MG because of the extreme selling. See example in Category:SX.
  • 80% of the time when pullback to EMA comes after 40 or more bars below the EMA, there will be a selloff that will test the low, however only in 20% of the time the SPBRT sells off to far below the old low with the day closing on the low.
10% 10% of time, market is in breakout, price moves fast to find new TR[26].
  1. BTC 02C.
  2. 49A
  3. 20230329
  4. https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/price-action-fundamentals/video-13a-always-in/
  5. Category:Exceptionally Big Bar
  6. Always in Short
  7. 49A
  8. TR book, chapter 25
  9. Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High
  10. https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/
  11. discord from brad wolff on 7-20-2022
  12. TR book, chapter 25
  13. note that the 60% probability here is based on 1:1 RR as mentioned at the beginning, if 2:1 RR i.e. a swing, the probability will be around only 40%: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/price-action/10-best-price-action-trading-patterns/#1-major-trend-reversals
  14. if the market falls to the low of the prior bar, is this still a reliable strong bull spike? 7-25-2022, paul
  15. https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/
  16. BTC 45A
  17. Always in Short
  18. https://www.papals.live/index.php?title=20221102&venotify=created
  19. Encyclopedia:Yesterday Was Buy Climax
  20. CHAPTER 3 Major Trend Reversal
  21. CHAPTER 3 Major Trend Reversal
  22. https://www.papals.live/index.php?title=20221102&venotify=created
  23. See 20221129, major bear surprise so 30% chance of bull trend reversal.
  24. Brad wolf, discord chat, 7-22-2022
  25. PriceActionRoles mentioned this on 8-1-2022: This specific open is explained in BTC Brooks Course Chapter 48A-B-C-D-E-F (6 videos. video 5 and 6)
  26. BTC 02C.