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「Probability Table」：修訂間差異
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*if a bar is exceptionally bigger than other bars, 70% chance at least MM, especially when it has ok FT (at least doji).<ref>[[:Category:Exceptionally Big Bar|Category:Exceptionally Big Bar]]</ref><ref>[[Always in Short]]</ref> | *if a bar is exceptionally bigger than other bars, 70% chance at least MM, especially when it has ok FT (at least doji).<ref>[[:Category:Exceptionally Big Bar|Category:Exceptionally Big Bar]]</ref><ref>[[Always in Short]]</ref> | ||
* | *probability of success of 70 percent or better (reward has to be '''at least half as big as risk''' just to break even): | ||
**Scalps, but since most traders cannot consistently pick trades with a 70 percent chance of success, they should trade a scalp only if the reward is at least as large as the risk. '''For example, if you believe that a two-point stop is needed in the Emini, take the trade only if at least a two-point reward is reasonable'''<ref>TR book, chapter 25</ref>. | **Scalps, but since most traders cannot consistently pick trades with a 70 percent chance of success, they should trade a scalp only if the reward is at least as large as the risk. '''For example, if you believe that a two-point stop is needed in the Emini, take the trade only if at least a two-point reward is reasonable'''<ref>TR book, chapter 25</ref>. | ||
* | *if bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of Triangle<ref>[[Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High|''Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High'']]</ref>. | ||
*70% outside down days closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only 20% closes above middle point<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/''</ref>. | *70% outside down days closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only 20% closes above middle point<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/''</ref>. | ||
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