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阿布答疑:突破,持仓还是离场?:修订间差异

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''Video duration: 6min 02sec''</blockquote>
''Video duration: 6min 02sec''</blockquote>


= Scalp or swing? =
= 刮头皮还是波段? Scalp or swing? =
[[文件:Ask-al-78-trading-breakouts-1.jpg|677x677px]]
[[文件:Ask-al-78-trading-breakouts-1.jpg|677x677px]]


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 对于波段交易,取决于波段程度和目标的远近,您必须允许回调,而且您必须假设会有回调。只要您的假设还未证实无效的,只要市场(以牛市为例)每次回调都保持在最近的突破低位之上。
 对于波段交易,取决于波段程度和目标的远近,您必须允许回调,而且您必须假设会有回调。只要您的假设还未证实无效的,只要市场(以牛市为例)每次回调都保持在最近的突破低位之上。


= Reversal signal =
= 反转信号 Reversal signal =


Sometimes you'll get a reversal signal before the market falls below a low.  So let's say you're long up here [B44/45], your stop is down here [below B38]. But let's say you decided to short below 57 or below 64, taking a chance for a Major Trend Reversal, that's okay.  So, you can get out even though it's still Always In Long.  But the Always In Long bulls strictly speaking, until they see a strong reversal down, they stay long as long as it's staying above the bottom of their last leg up.
Sometimes you'll get a reversal signal before the market falls below a low.  So let's say you're long up here [B44/45], your stop is down here [below B38]. But let's say you decided to short below 57 or below 64, taking a chance for a Major Trend Reversal, that's okay.  So, you can get out even though it's still Always In Long.  But the Always In Long bulls strictly speaking, until they see a strong reversal down, they stay long as long as it's staying above the bottom of their last leg up.
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</blockquote>
</blockquote>


= Always review context =
= 每次都要先形势 Always review context =
[[文件:Ask-al-78-trading-breakouts-2.jpg|600x600像素]]
[[文件:Ask-al-78-trading-breakouts-2.jpg|600x600像素]]


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 当61的突破正在进行时,我们要如何拿它来与28或38比较? 首先,形势有点不同。 在这里(61),我们有个wedge bull flag(WBLF),而且这时候已经是太平洋时间晚上11:30(北京时间凌晨2点半),一般在这时间我们都会看到趋势恢复或趋势逆转。 然后,当61正在形成时,它上涨得非常快,我尝试用了一个限价单来购买两个tick的回调。 但是,与其回调,它反而上升了三或四个tick,我正在想“哦,那糟糕了。我会失去入场的时机。” 于是我就只好以市价单立刻入场,然后希望市场会继续上升。
 当61的突破正在进行时,我们要如何拿它来与28或38比较? 首先,形势有点不同。 在这里(61),我们有个wedge bull flag(WBLF),而且这时候已经是太平洋时间晚上11:30(北京时间凌晨2点半),一般在这时间我们都会看到趋势恢复或趋势逆转。 然后,当61正在形成时,它上涨得非常快,我尝试用了一个限价单来购买两个tick的回调。 但是,与其回调,它反而上升了三或四个tick,我正在想“哦,那糟糕了。我会失去入场的时机。” 于是我就只好以市价单立刻入场,然后希望市场会继续上升。


= Decide quickly =
= 快速做决策 Decide quickly =
It’s like when you are a kid, you’re jumping off a high board for the first time. You stand up there and you hesitate and then you say, “I’m just going to do it.” So you bring your arms in tight and your knees up to your chest. Your cheeks are puffed up, you pinched your nose, your eyes are squeezed really hard, and you just jump and hope for the best. So when things are doing that, when they’re going up really quickly, you just don’t know. You have to decide quickly.
It’s like when you are a kid, you’re jumping off a high board for the first time. You stand up there and you hesitate and then you say, “I’m just going to do it.” So you bring your arms in tight and your knees up to your chest. Your cheeks are puffed up, you pinched your nose, your eyes are squeezed really hard, and you just jump and hope for the best. So when things are doing that, when they’re going up really quickly, you just don’t know. You have to decide quickly.


I knew that I wanted to buy and I usually try to buy with a limit order. And I probably did buy on a limit order on 28 or 27 or 37. Because that’s what I typically do. But here [36/49/57], I thought that we had a wedge and a micro double bottom like we’d go to the bottom and that we had the potential to get up to the 60-minute moving average for the high of the day so I thought there was a potential for a breakout.
I knew that I wanted to buy and I usually try to buy with a limit order. And I probably did buy on a limit order on 28 or 27 or 37. Because that’s what I typically do. But here [36/49/57], I thought that we had a wedge and a micro double bottom like we’d go to the bottom and that we had the potential to get up to the 60-minute moving average for the high of the day so I thought there was a potential for a breakout.


 就像当你还是个孩子,第一次在泳池跳下高台时那样,你站在那里犹豫不决,然后你说:“我只需鼓起勇气做就行了。”你把手臂紧贴在身体两侧,将膝盖抬到胸前,你的脸颊鼓起来,捏住鼻子,紧闭双眼,然后你就跳下去,希望一切顺利。所以当事情发展得很快时,而你根本不知道该怎么做,你必须快速决
 就像当你还是个孩子,第一次在泳池跳下高台时那样,你站在那里犹豫不决,然后你说:“我只需鼓起勇气做就行了。”你把手臂紧贴在身体两侧,将膝盖抬到胸前,你的脸颊鼓起来,捏住鼻子,紧闭双眼,然后你就跳下去,希望一切顺利。所以当事情发展得很快时,而你根本不知道该怎么做,你必须快速


 我知道我想入场,我通常会尝试用限价单购买。我可能在28或27或37时以限价单购买,因为那是我通常会做的事情。但是在这里[36/49/57],我认为我们有wedge(W)和micro double bottom(MDB)在底部形成支撑,而且我们有可能测试60分钟移动平均线,所以我认为这个突破并不是假突破。
 我知道我想入场,我通常会尝试用限价单购买。我可能在28或27或37时以限价单购买,因为那是我通常会做的事情。但是在这里[36/49/57],我认为我们有wedge(W)和micro double bottom(MDB)在底部形成支撑,而且我们有可能测试60分钟移动平均线,所以我认为这个突破并不是假突破。


= Look for trend resumption or reversal =
= 留意趋势恢复或趋势反转的迹象 Look for trend resumption or reversal =
And it’s really easy to get lulled into indifference when you’re in a sideways market for 2 hours like that. But around 11, 11:30, 12, I always start to pay a lot more attention. And I look for trend resumption or trend reversal. So, for me, you’re saying how do I know 28 and 38 are not going to be strongly bullish. Well, first of all, 28 — tight bear channel – it’s probably a minor reversal. And 38, right now, it’s a second leg up in a trading range day, and it’s just not all that big so I’m not too certain about that.
And it’s really easy to get lulled into indifference when you’re in a sideways market for 2 hours like that. But around 11, 11:30, 12, I always start to pay a lot more attention. And I look for trend resumption or trend reversal. So, for me, you’re saying how do I know 28 and 38 are not going to be strongly bullish. Well, first of all, 28 — tight bear channel – it’s probably a minor reversal. And 38, right now, it’s a second leg up in a trading range day, and it’s just not all that big so I’m not too certain about that.


Here, we’ve got a wedge higher low and a very big bull-bar, the biggest bull-bar of the day, and we’re breaking out of what I think is a wedge bull flag or a triangle. And I tried to buy and could not buy the way I typically buy. So it’s probably something atypical about what’s going on. The character of the market might change.
Here, we’ve got a wedge higher low and a very big bull-bar, the biggest bull-bar of the day, and we’re breaking out of what I think is a wedge bull flag or a triangle. And I tried to buy and could not buy the way I typically buy. So it’s probably something atypical about what’s going on. The character of the market might change.


 当你一直在想这样处于交易区的市场中连续交易了2个小时,你很容易对于市场的波动变得冷漠。但是大约在太平洋时间11点、11点半或12点左右(北京时间凌晨2点至3点之间),我总是开始更加 关注 市场 ,寻找 趋势恢复或趋势反转的迹象。因此,你想知道28和38会不会强烈看涨:首先,28是处于tight bear channel(TBRCH),所以这可能只是次要反转;而38是交易区间日的第二个上涨,而且它的涨幅并不是很大,所以我对与会不会强烈看涨并不太确定。
 当你一直在想这样处于交易区的市场中连续交易了2个小时,你很容易对于市场的波动变得冷漠。但是大约在太平洋时间11点、11点半或12点左右(北京时间凌晨2点至3点之间),我总是开始更加 留意 市场 任何 趋势恢复或趋势反转的迹象。因此,你想知道28和38会不会强烈看涨:首先,28是处于tight bear channel(TBRCH),所以这可能只是次要反转;而38是交易区间日的第二个上涨,而且它的涨幅并不是很大,所以我对与会不会强烈看涨并不太确定。


 在61,我们有 wedge higher low 和一个非常大的阳线,甚至是当天最大的阳线,我们还正突破 wedge bull flag 或 triangle(TRI)的区间。另外,我试图做多但无法以我平常的方式入场,所以市场的性质可能将会发生变化。<blockquote>Question 3. You mentioned that you missed the buy on the close of 61. What told you that it was a breakout while still in a sideways trading range?
 在61,我们有 wedge higher low 和一个非常大的阳线,甚至是当天最大的阳线,我们还正突破 wedge bull flag 或 triangle(TRI)的区间。另外,我试图做多但无法以我平常的方式入场,所以市场的性质可能将会发生变化。<blockquote>Question 3. You mentioned that you missed the buy on the close of 61. What told you that it was a breakout while still in a sideways trading range?
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 问题3. 你提到错过了61的尾盘买入机会。在当时仍处于交易区间,是什么让你认为这是一个突破?</blockquote>
 问题3. 你提到错过了61的尾盘买入机会。在当时仍处于交易区间,是什么让你认为这是一个突破?</blockquote>


= Limit order bars =
= 限价单K线 Limit order bars =
[[文件:Ask-al-78-trading-breakouts-3.jpg|600x600像素]]
[[文件:Ask-al-78-trading-breakouts-3.jpg|600x600像素]]


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 这里有两点你需要注意:57是一个很大的反转阴线,你常听我谈论这些K线会吸引空头在这K线的上方挂限价单,那些空头都是刮头皮交易员。如果形势不错,就像在这里我们正处在多头趋势中,而且在移动平均线上,我认为大多数的时候你在58上方的位置做多会盈利,但你需要一个宽松的止损。另一个选择是,不是在58以上买入,而是在50%回调处挂限价单。然后,在61我们有了一个第二次入场的机会,这K线在移动平均线上收盘接近高点。对我来说,这比在58以上买入有更高的概率。
 这里有两点你需要注意:57是一个很大的反转阴线,你常听我谈论这些K线会吸引空头在这K线的上方挂限价单,那些空头都是刮头皮交易员。如果形势不错,就像在这里我们正处在多头趋势中,而且在移动平均线上,我认为大多数的时候你在58上方的位置做多会盈利,但你需要一个宽松的止损。另一个选择是,不是在58以上买入,而是在50%回调处挂限价单。然后,在61我们有了一个第二次入场的机会,这K线在移动平均线上收盘接近高点。对我来说,这比在58以上买入有更高的概率。


= The right thing to do =
= 做正确的事 The right thing to do =
And [second thing] I talk, sometimes have stuff I have to do on the phone, doctor’s appointments, and contractors, who knows what. And my mother sometimes calls. She’s always amusing to me.
And [second thing] I talk, sometimes have stuff I have to do on the phone, doctor’s appointments, and contractors, who knows what. And my mother sometimes calls. She’s always amusing to me.


What happens is, she’ll call and she’d say “Al. Did you call?” And I know what she’s saying – she’s saying that she’s lonely. And she may be faking it. I don’t know, maybe half the time she says that nobody called, and she just wants to talk to me. So I say “Oh? No Ma, but I can talk.” So whenever she calls, I always take the call. I always speak with her a couple of times a week. And that results in me — it costs me money. But it’s still the right thing to do so I do it.
What happens is, she’ll call and she’d say “Al. Did you call?” And I know what she’s saying – she’s saying that she’s lonely. And she may be faking it. I don’t know, maybe half the time she says that nobody called, and she just wants to talk to me. So I say “Oh? No Ma, but I can talk.” So whenever she calls, I always take the call. I always speak with her a couple of times a week. And that results in me — it costs me money. But it’s still the right thing to do so I do it.


 我有时必须在电话上处理事务,如医生预约和与承包商洽谈等。我母亲有时也会打电话来,她总是逗我开心,她会打电话来问我“Al,你打电话了吗?”。我知道她的意思是她很孤独,有时她可能是在假装,这我无法确定,也许有一半的时间她会说没有人打电话,她只想和我聊天。所以我会说 “哦?妈,没有,但我可以和你聊天。”所以,每当她打电话来,我总是会接听,而且我每周都会和她交谈几次。虽然这花费 一些 钱,但仍然是正确的事情,所以我这么做。
 我有时必须在电话上处理事务,如医生预约和与承包商洽谈等。我母亲有时也会打电话来,她总是逗我开心,她会打电话来问我“Al,你打电话了吗?”。我知道她的意思是她很孤独,有时她可能是在假装,这我无法确定,也许有一半的时间她会说没有人打电话,她只想和我聊天。所以我会说 “哦?妈,没有,但我可以和你聊天。”所以,每当她打电话来,我总是会接听,而且我每周都会和她交谈几次。虽然这 样在电话聊天会 花费我 不少 钱,但 仍然是正确的事情,所以我这么做 。交易也是如此,你必须做正确的事情
[[分类:Al Brooks Articles]]
[[分类:Al Brooks Articles]]
[[分类:翻译中]]
[[分类:翻译中]]
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