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阿布答疑：突破，持仓还是离场？：修订间差异
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Okay, so he’s saying when you get a breakout like 61 right here and he’s comparing it to 28 or 38. Now first of all, context is a little bit different. Here we get a wedge bull flag, we’re getting late in the day, 11:30 for trend resumption or trend reversal. And then also as 61 was forming, I tried, it was going up very quickly—I placed a limit order to buy a two tick pull back. And instead of pulling back, it went up like three or four ticks and I was thinking to myself, “Oh, that’s bad. That’s bad. I’m going to get trapped out.” So I just hit ‘Buy the Market’ and I keep my fingers crossed. | Okay, so he’s saying when you get a breakout like 61 right here and he’s comparing it to 28 or 38. Now first of all, context is a little bit different. Here we get a wedge bull flag, we’re getting late in the day, 11:30 for trend resumption or trend reversal. And then also as 61 was forming, I tried, it was going up very quickly—I placed a limit order to buy a two tick pull back. And instead of pulling back, it went up like three or four ticks and I was thinking to myself, “Oh, that’s bad. That’s bad. I’m going to get trapped out.” So I just hit ‘Buy the Market’ and I keep my fingers crossed. | ||
当61的突破正在进行时，我们要如何拿它来与28或38比较？ 首先，形势有点不同。 在这里（61），我们有个wedge bull flag（WBLF），而且这时候已经是太平洋时间晚上11:30，一般在这时间我们都会看到趋势恢复或趋势逆转。 然后，当61正在形成时，它上涨得非常快，我尝试用了一个限价单来购买两个tick的回调。 但是，与其回调，它反而上升了三或四个tick，我正在想“哦，那糟糕了。我会失去入场的时机。” 于是我就只好以市价单立刻入场，然后希望 | 当61的突破正在进行时，我们要如何拿它来与28或38比较？ 首先，形势有点不同。 在这里（61），我们有个wedge bull flag（WBLF），而且这时候已经是太平洋时间晚上11:30 （北京时间凌晨2点半） ，一般在这时间我们都会看到趋势恢复或趋势逆转。 然后，当61正在形成时，它上涨得非常快，我尝试用了一个限价单来购买两个tick的回调。 但是，与其回调，它反而上升了三或四个tick，我正在想“哦，那糟糕了。我会失去入场的时机。” 于是我就只好以市价单立刻入场，然后希望 市场会继续上升 。 | ||
= Decide quickly = | = Decide quickly = | ||
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I knew that I wanted to buy and I usually try to buy with a limit order. And I probably did buy on a limit order on 28 or 27 or 37. Because that’s what I typically do. But here [36/49/57], I thought that we had a wedge and a micro double bottom like we’d go to the bottom and that we had the potential to get up to the 60-minute moving average for the high of the day so I thought there was a potential for a breakout. | I knew that I wanted to buy and I usually try to buy with a limit order. And I probably did buy on a limit order on 28 or 27 or 37. Because that’s what I typically do. But here [36/49/57], I thought that we had a wedge and a micro double bottom like we’d go to the bottom and that we had the potential to get up to the 60-minute moving average for the high of the day so I thought there was a potential for a breakout. | ||
就像当你还是个孩子，第一次跳下高台时那样 | 就像当你还是个孩子，第一次 在泳池 跳下高台时那样 ， 你站在那里犹豫不决，然后你说 ： “我 只需鼓起勇气 做 就行了 。”你把手臂紧贴在身体两侧，将膝盖抬到胸前 ， 你的脸颊鼓起来，捏 住 鼻子，紧闭双眼，然后你就跳下去，希望 一切顺利 。所以当事情发展得很快时， 而 你根本不知道该怎么做 ， 你必须快速决定。 | ||
我知道我想 | 我知道我想 入场 ，我通常会尝试用限价单购买。我可能在28或27或37时以限价单购买 ， 因为那是我通常 会 做的事情。但是在这里[36/49/57]，我认为我们 有wedge（W）和micro double bottom（MDB）在 底部 形成支撑 ，而且我们有 可能测试60 分钟移动平均线，所以我认为 这个突破并不是假 突破。 | ||
= Look for trend resumption or reversal = | = Look for trend resumption or reversal = | ||
And it’s really easy to get lulled into indifference when you’re in a sideways market for 2 hours like that. But around 11, 11:30, 12, I always start to pay a lot more attention. And I look for trend resumption or trend reversal. So, for me, you’re saying how do I know 28 and 38 are not going to be strongly bullish. Well, first of all, 28 — tight bear channel – it’s probably a minor reversal. And 38, right now, it’s a second leg up in a trading range day, and it’s just not all that big so I’m not too certain about that. | And it’s really easy to get lulled into indifference when you’re in a sideways market for 2 hours like that. But around 11, 11:30, 12, I always start to pay a lot more attention. And I look for trend resumption or trend reversal. So, for me, you’re saying how do I know 28 and 38 are not going to be strongly bullish. Well, first of all, 28 — tight bear channel – it’s probably a minor reversal. And 38, right now, it’s a second leg up in a trading range day, and it’s just not all that big so I’m not too certain about that. | ||
Here, we’ve got a wedge higher low and a very big bull-bar, the biggest bull-bar of the day, and we’re breaking out of what I think is a wedge bull flag or a triangle. And I tried to buy and could not buy the way I typically buy. So it’s probably something atypical about what’s going on. The character of the market might change. | Here, we’ve got a wedge higher low and a very big bull-bar, the biggest bull-bar of the day, and we’re breaking out of what I think is a wedge bull flag or a triangle. And I tried to buy and could not buy the way I typically buy. So it’s probably something atypical about what’s going on. The character of the market might change. | ||
这 | 当你一直在想 这 样处于交 易 区的 市场 中 连续交易了2个小时 ，你很容易对于市场的波动变得冷漠 。但是大约 在太平洋时间11 点、11点半或12点左右 （北京时间凌晨2点至3点之间） ，我总是开始更加关注市场 ， 寻找趋势恢复或趋势反转的迹象。因此，你想知道28和38 会 不会强烈看涨 ： 首先，28 是处于tight bear channel（TBRCH），所以 这可能 只 是次要反转 ；而38 是交易区间日的第二个上涨，而且 它的涨幅 并不是很大，所以我对 与会不会强烈看涨 并不太确定。 | ||
在61 ，我们 有 wedge higher low 和一个非常大的 阳线 ， 甚至 是当天最大的 阳线 ，我们 还 正突破 wedge bull flag 或 triangle（TRI） 的区间。 另外， 我试图 做多 但无法以我 平 常的方式 入场， 所以市场的性质可能 将 会发生变 化 。<blockquote>Question 3. You mentioned that you missed the buy on the close of 61. What told you that it was a breakout while still in a sideways trading range? | |||
问题3. | 问题3. 你 提到错过了61的尾盘买入机会。在 当时 仍处于交易区间， 是 什么 让你认为 这是一个突破？</blockquote> | ||
= Limit order bars = | = Limit order bars = | ||
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Well, two things. You’ve got this big-bull reversal bar, you always hear me talk about those bars being limit order bars with sellers above. Those sellers are scalpers. If the context is good, here we’re in a bull trend, at the moving average, I think most of the time you make a profit buying above 58. But you need a wide stop. And the alternative is instead of buying above 58, you place a limit order to buy a 50% pull back. And then 61, now we have a second entry buy setup, with closing on its high at the moving average. To me, that’s even a higher probability buy than buying above 58. | Well, two things. You’ve got this big-bull reversal bar, you always hear me talk about those bars being limit order bars with sellers above. Those sellers are scalpers. If the context is good, here we’re in a bull trend, at the moving average, I think most of the time you make a profit buying above 58. But you need a wide stop. And the alternative is instead of buying above 58, you place a limit order to buy a 50% pull back. And then 61, now we have a second entry buy setup, with closing on its high at the moving average. To me, that’s even a higher probability buy than buying above 58. | ||
这里有 两 点 你 需要注意：57是 一个很大的反转 阴线 ，你常听我谈论这 些K线会吸引空头在这K线的 上 方挂 限价 单， 那些 空头都 是 刮头皮 交易 员 。如果 形势不错 ， 就像 在这里我们 正 处在多头趋势中，而且在移动平均线上，我认为大多数 的 时 候 你 在58 上 方 的位置 做多 会盈利 ， 但你需要一个宽松的止损。另一个选择是，不是在58以上买入，而是在50%回 调 处 挂限价单 。然后， 在61 我们有了一个第二次入场的机会， 这K线 在移动平均线上收盘 接近 高点。对我来说，这比在58以上买入 有 更高的概率。 | |||
= The right thing to do = | = The right thing to do = | ||