阿布答疑：错过交易机会该怎么办
Source: Ask Al: Missing swing trades, measured moves, trading spikes
问题1：在48到58之间，我一直在考虑靠近支撑位、交易区间左侧的想法，因此没有卖出。对此有什么建议吗？
Question 1: I did not sell once between 48 and 58 since I constantly was thinking near support, trading range bottom on the left. Any advice on this?
Video duration: 7min 33sec
大涨大跌 Big up, big down
所以他没有在43到58之间卖出。这让我不担心。你的逆转判断相当不错。大幅下跌，然后大幅上涨。我当时提到过，这也是一个空头通道，不断形成较低的高点，我们可能在通道中下行，空头们会在第二次入场做空位置（42以下）加大抛售。
但我对不在这个区域卖出并没有问题。你们看到了一个较高的低点。确实，这是一个空头通道，所以你可以卖出进行短期交易，设上方止损，然后冒一些风险。但可能不会下跌太多。这是一个非常紧密的空头通道，但你必须能够使用正确的止损位。所以如果你在这里任何地方卖出，你的止损位在这里。如果你在这里卖出，你的止损位可能在这里；可能在这里会更好。我认为很难建立一个非常强大的交易策略。成功的概率并不是很高。风险相对较大，收益相对较小。所以我不会担心这个问题。卖出在54，可能会有极端卖出高潮。55，同样的情况，可能是一个测量缺口。我认为，如果你对做决定并管理交易很敏捷，你可以在54收盘价，55收盘价卖出。但我并不认为它会大幅下跌。
So he did not sell between 43 and 58. That doesn’t bother me. You’ve got a pretty good reversal. Down big, up big. I mentioned at the time, it was also a bear channel, lower high, lower high, and that we could be channeling down and that bears would be selling, especially below the second entry short 42.
But I don’t have a problem with not selling down here. You’ve got a higher low. It’s a bear channel, yes, so you can sell for a swing, stop above that and take a chance. But probably not going to go down all that far. It was a very tight bear channel, but you have to be able to use the correct stop. So if you sold anywhere through here, your stop is up here. And if you sell up here, maybe your stop is here; it’s probably better up here. I think it’s hard to structure a very strong trader’s equation. The probability is not all that good. Risk is relatively big, reward is relatively small. So I would not worry about that. Selling 54, possible exhaustive sell climax. 55, same thing. Possible measuring gap. I think if you’re quick to make decisions and manage trades, you could sell 54 close, 55 close. But I did not think it was going to fall all that much.
不卖出是合乎逻辑的 Logical not to sell
As far as advice on how to handle all this stuff, not selling this? I think it’s perfectly logical not to sell that. It’s not all that bearish. We’re still above a higher low. Yes, it’s a bear channel, but you’re selling low in the channel. If you want, you can say, “Okay, it’s a 10 bar bear micro channel. Maybe I’ll sell above a bar and put a stop above here or a stop above there,” if it’s really a small pullback bear trend. Pullbacks should only last one, two, or three bars, and they should not get above here. So theoretically you could trade small, put a stop up there, and take a chance that it becomes a small pullback bear trend.
But I don’t have any special advice about that. It’s really tough to structure a strong trader’s equation trade when the market looks like that. You’re selling low in a day that’s not all that bearish, or you’re buying and you’re in a very tight bear channel. That’s not very good either. It’s a scalper’s market, and you’ve got to be quick to make decisions. In general, I think traders will make more money if they stick to swings. I think that was a difficult swing to trade.
至于如何处理所有这些情况，不卖出是完全合乎逻辑的。市场并不是非常看跌的。我们仍然在较高的低点之上。是的，这是一个空头通道，但你在通道中低位卖出。如果你愿意，你可以说：“好吧，这是一个10根K线的空头微通道。也许我会在一根K线的高点卖出，并设置止损在这里或者在那里的高点，”如果它真的是一个较小的回调空头趋势。回调应该只持续一、两根，或者三根K线，并且不应该超过这里的高点。因此，理论上你可以进行小规模交易，设止损在上方，冒一些风险，看它是否变成一个较小的回调空头趋势。
但我没有特别的建议。当市场看起来像这样的时候，要建立一个强大的交易策略非常困难。你在一个不是非常看跌的日子低位卖出，或者你在一个非常紧密的空头通道中买入。这也不是很好。这是一个适合短线交易者的市场，你必须迅速做出决策。总体而言，我认为如果交易者坚持按照趋势操作，他们会赚更多的钱。我认为那是一个很难操作的回调交易。
问题2：我只看到缺口建立后的测量目标。在此基础上，最好的入场策略是什么？或者已经太迟了？ Question 2: I only see measured moves after the gap is established. What is the best entry strategy based on that, or is it too late in the move?
进入摇摆交易永远不会太迟 Never too late to enter swing trade
不，如果你在进行摇摆交易，进场永远不会太迟。可以假设第一次逆转不会走得太远。如果你看到潜在的测量缺口——这里是64，你会在那里买入吗？我不确定。我不是在预期一个测量上涨，我预计这个缺口会填补回去。今天真的不是一个好的测量目标日。你可以看到最好的测量目标是'当天开盘价'、'当天最低价'，上涨了一个测量目标。然后是'当天最高价'、'当天开盘价'，下跌了一个测量目标。
至于在交易区间日找测量缺口，你必须假设每个缺口都会填补回去。我们有一个8点以上的缺口，它被填补回去了。潜在的测量缺口15，它被填补回去了。潜在的测量缺口34，它被填补回去了。这里是潜在的测量缺口，它也被填补回去了。同样的情况出现在这里，它也被填补回去了。你必须迅速做出决策。我认为在53收盘价买入是可以的，我认为在60收盘价买入也是可以的，以34收盘价卖出，以15收盘价卖出，以7收盘价买入也是可以的。但你必须使用较大的止损，并且必须迅速做出决策。
No, if you’re in a swing trade, it’s never too late to enter. Presumably, the first reversal will not get very far. If you see a measuring gap potential — 64 here, do you buy there? I don’t know. I’m not expecting a measured move up here; I’m expecting the gap to fill. Today was really not a good measured move day. You can see the best measured move was ‘open of the day’, low of the day, moved a measured move up. And then ‘high of the day’, open of the day, it moved a measured move down.
As far as measuring gaps on a trading range day, you have to assume every gap is going to close. We have a gap 8 above 2, it closed. Potential measuring gap 15, it closed. Potential measuring gap 34, it closed. Potential measuring gap here, it closed. Same here, it closed. You’ve got to be really quick to make decisions. I think it’s okay to buy the 53 close, I think it’s okay to buy the 60 close, sell the 34 close, sell the 15 close, buy the 7 close. But you’ve got to use wide stops and you’ve got to be quick to make decisions.
交易区间日 Trading range days
一般而言，如果我认为某一天是交易区间日——就像今天一样，从当天的第一根K线开始，我就认为这是一个交易区间日；我今天可能说了一百遍——在这种情况下，我大多会使用限价单进行交易，主要是进行1点的短线交易，有时候会进行2点的短线交易。当有一个看起来相当强劲的突破，比如对空头来说的34点，对多头来说的53点，如果我能获得2点的利润，我通常会在2点时退出，并等待看看它是否会成为一个强劲的趋势。如果它变成了一个强劲的趋势，那么我会进行部分摇摆交易。但在它真的变成强劲的趋势之前，我会假设每次大的突破，无论向上还是向下，都会失败。
但在一个强劲的趋势日，进场永远不会太迟。所以，如果你看到这样的情况，你可以说：“我们已经在一个测量目标上；这是突破点”——我不在意。这个趋势非常强劲，我们可能会根据这个突破的幅度再次上涨一个测量目标。所以在强劲的趋势中，进场永远不会太迟。
In general, if I think a day is a trading range day – like today, from the first bar of the day I thought it was a trading range day; I said it probably a hundred times today – in general, if it’s a trading range day, I’m going to be entering mostly with limit orders and mostly scalping for 1 point, sometimes 2 points. When there is a breakout that looks reasonably strong, 34 for the bears, 53 for the bulls, if I can get 2 points out of it, I usually exit at 2 points and then wait to see if it becomes a strong trend. If it becomes a strong trend, then I’ll swing part. But until it does become a strong trend, I’m going to assume that every big breakout, up and down, is going to fail.
But on a strong trend day, it’s never too late to enter. So if you see this, you can say “We’re already on a measured move; here’s the breakout point” – I don’t care. This is so strong, we’re probably going to go up for another measured move based upon the height of this breakout. So on strong trends, it’s never too late to enter.
如何应对像53、60和68这样的大波动？ Question 3: How do you trade around big spikes like 53, 60, and 68?
立即跟随波动进场 Immediately get in on spikes
当你看到这样的大波动时，你立即跟随趋势进场——我通常会这样做。我通常会预期，“哦，52。我们可能会在53上突破”，所以我会有所准备。有些情况，比如53，我想我买入了，可能平盘出局。很多时候，我最后是平盘出局。60，我还好。68，我非常确信我们会再次下跌。有些情况，我认为很有可能会有延续性走势。6、7可能更多上涨。34，可能至少会再下跌一点。45，可能会更多上涨。53，可能会更多上涨。60，可能会更多上涨。68，可能会更多下跌。但不会很多。
我通常尝试尽早进场。如果我真的很早，通常会立即进入市场。如果我已经进入了市场，过了2或3分钟，很多时候我会使用限价单进场。我会打开一个1分钟的K线图，如果是牛市突破，我会用限价单在前一根K线的低点以下买入。如果是熊市突破，我会用限价单在前一根K线的高点卖出。但我确实会尽早进场。
When you see a big move like that, you immediately get in with the trend – I usually do. I’m usually anticipating, “Oh, 52. We may get a breakout on 53,” so I’m going to be prepared. Some of them, like 53, I think I bought and I may have gotten out breakeven. A lot of them I end up getting out breakeven. 60, I was okay. 68, I was very confident that we were going to get more down. Some of them are, I think, pretty high probability that there’s going to be follow-through. 6, 7 probably more up. 34, probably at least a little bit more down. 45, probably more up. 53, probably more up. 60, probably more up. 68, probably more down. But not a lot more.
I usually try to enter early. I often enter the market if I’m really, really early. If I’m 2 or 3 minutes into it, a lot of times I’ll enter with a limit order. I’ll put up a 1-minute chart, and if it’s a bull breakout, buy with a limit order below the low of the prior bar. If it’s a bear breakout, sell with a limit order at the high of the prior bar. But I do try to get in early.
限价单 Limit orders
在很多交易中，我已经进场并平仓。有些交易，我会在这里使用限价单买入，然后在反弹时离场，或者在这里开始走缓时使用限价单买入，然后在突破时离场。很多时候，我会做相反的交易。如果我足够早地使用限价单进场，我会卖出牛市突破，并买入熊市突破。这种交易需要时间积累。你必须做数以千计的交易，才能开始进行反向交易和短线交易，迅速进出市场，一天中尽可能多地赚取小幅利润。
如果你能使用较宽的止损，比如4或5个点，并逐步加仓，然后迅速做出决策，那会更好。今天有几次我进场——比如我买入，然后在再低1点或再低2点加仓，然后我觉得反转太强劲，我就放了一个限价单，以我的交易平均价出场，可能有1个跳价的利润。所以今天在我进场后，有两三次我这样做，进场加仓，然后我觉得反转太强劲，就试图在交易中以平盘的价格出场。在大多数情况下，我再过一两根K线后，朝着相同的方向或相反的方向重新进场。我整天都在这样操作。
On a lot of those trades, I’ve already gotten in and gotten out. Some of these I buy with limit orders here, and I’m getting out on the rally, or I’ll buy with limit orders when it’s starting to slow down here, and I’m getting out on the breakout. A lot of times I’m doing the opposite. I’m selling bull breakouts and buying bear breakouts, if I enter early enough with limit orders. That kind of trading, I think, it takes years. You have to do thousands of trades to get to the point when you can start reversing and scalping, quickly in, quickly out, and pocketing as many little 1 points as you can during the day.
It’s better if you can use a wide stop, 4 or 5 points and scale in, and then quickly make decisions. There were several times today when I entered – let’s say I bought, and I bought more 1 point lower or 2 points lower, and I decided it’s just not all that good, and I placed a limit order to get out at the average price of my trade, maybe with a 1 tick profit. So I did that two or three times today when I entered, scaled in, and I thought the reversal was just too strong, and I just tried to get out breakeven on the trade. On most of those, I entered again a bar or two later, in the same direction or in the opposite direction. I just keep going all day long.