比特幣2023年第一季度分析
市場回顧：
市值最大的虛擬貨幣比特幣在2023年第一季度較去年上漲了73.94%，遠遠超越了技術性牛市的要求。目前，比特幣正處於一個盤整區間，他到底
是蓄勢待發，一飛沖天，帶領加密貨幣市場迎來大牛市。亦或者如過往的一年一樣，曇花一現，繁榮的外表不過是加密貨幣最後的圓舞曲，刺激着大眾的貪
婪卻又將機構的派發陷阱深深掩蓋。作為這一期的市場分析，我們認為：接下來一年時間內，比特幣很可能迎來一段屬於交易區間的周期，在15000-50000價格區間震盪。
3個月為單位的k線圖
分析
- 2023年第一季度的k線是一根近乎光頭K線的飽滿陽線，它突破了去年第三季度產生的波段高點 並回補了2021年第二季度的波段低點（補足了中間價格巨大差異產生的gap）
- 與以往比特幣強勁的牛市不同，市場現在更像是在做一個牛旗回調。因為2020年比特幣價格突破 了2017年的高點（更高高點）後並未跌回，最低價格至今依然堅守在2020年低點之上（更高低點）。
- 但是我們不得不承認，這個牛旗的回調很深，其不僅意味着過往的價格超買太多，還套住了所有在去 年的熊市當中急於抄底的交易者，當市場上漲，這些交易者急於賣出，使繼續上漲的可能性變小。
- 空頭並沒有在去年年底的熊市中保持力量持續打壓市場，這也意味着，他們認為市場嚴重超賣，並不 想繼續以低價做空。
- 在大部分多頭力量被套的情況下，多頭不敢全力推高市場，同時，空頭也不選擇繼續低位做空，這代 表着：在未來的一段時間內。市場很有可能發展成為交易區間。
- 根據目前的市場狀況，交易者將預期接下來的20根k線是一段交易區間（20根k線在3個月時間 圖上代表着5年）。在此之後，如果市場價格發展出了更高的高點和更高的低點，則意味着市場慢慢轉向牛市。
- 2023 1st Quarter (Q1) candlestick is a bull breakout bar closing at its high. The bar is closing the gap between the price and a prior minor higher low (Q2 2021).
- The price is probably within a bull flag pattern during a bull trend, since the price holds above a major higher low (2020 low) after achieving a higher high: 2020s breakout above 2017 high.
- But the bull flag is significantly deep, which means that there were bulls that bought too high. Those bulls will probably sell during rallies, limiting or adding difficulty to a potential upside.
- Bears are not getting good follow through after their bear bars, which means that they do not want to sell low.
- Bulls would rather not buy high, Bears would rather not sell low: trading range trading is likely.
- Nowadays, with the current information, traders should expect a trading range during the next 20 bars. 20 bars on a 3-month chart mean 5 years, thereafter, a resumption of the bull trend will be more likely if the price manages to be above its major higher low.
如何交易
- 多頭：買方希望能夠在這一根強勁的陽K上方買入，使市場延續以往的牛市行情，但問題是過去一年 多時間內形成的賣盤非常強勁，市場完全有理由形成新的第二腿下跌。因此，買方如果想要做多，最好等待二次信號，或者考慮在2022年 第二季度k線的收盤價附近或低點下方買入
- 空頭：賣方希望能夠以更高的價格做空，比如在2021年高點的50%附近。那些在2022年第
二季度收盤價下方做空的人，其未平倉的倉位正在遭受嚴重浮虧，他們期望市場能夠回到他們的入場價，使他們得以保本離場。
- Bulls: they might want to buy above the current bull signal bar, but the problem is that the previous selloff was strong enough to expect another leg sideways to down. Hence, they will do better waiting a 2nd entry or buying at Q2 2022 close or below bars.
- Bears: they might want to sell higher, like at or around a 50% retracement of the previous selloff. Those who sold at the Q2 2022 close, will try to exit (buy) breakeven if the price comes down to their entry price.
比特幣月線圖
分析
- 今年3月份的月線相對2月份是一個外包陽線，其收盤在在2021年6月份低點附近。
- 市場價格毫無疑問地突破了長久以來熊市的下行趨勢，相對於過去長達一年的熊市，現在的買方更加活躍，力量也更加強大。
- 更重要的是，多頭成功在今年3月份將過去市場跌破2021年6月低點後產生的的巨大缺口填補了。
- 我們從去年開始就警惕，市場上可能存在非常多的多頭被套在了2021年6月低點附近[1]。從技術分析角度來看，在過去，這是一個合理的買入位置，原因是：這個低點如果未跌破，市場將極有可能由多頭趨勢轉變為交易區間行情，亦或者由這個DB形成一輪新的上漲趨勢
- 前文我們一直反覆提到，市場周期很可能轉變為一段長久的交易區間，而不是如過去一樣，處於一個強勁的空頭趨勢中。交易區間的特徵是：gap通常都會回補、市場突破交易區間常常失敗，導致趨勢在區間內不斷反轉。此外，在交易區間內，當價格低於20 EMA時，大眾傾向市場價格是便宜的，與此相反，當價格高於 20 EMA時，大眾則認為市場價格較為昂貴。我們可以看到，今年3月份的收盤價高於 20 EMA。
- 各位交易者都應該警惕，在此次上漲行情的背後，是一個強勁的熊市[2]。在一強勁的趨勢末尾，第一次反轉行情常常不可能帶來一段新趨勢。
- 綜上所述，我們不應該對4月份還能保持充足的上漲力量有太大的期待。
- March candlestick’s is an outside up bar closing at the June 2021 low.
- The price definitely broke above the prior bear channel, meaning that bulls did a good step towards stopping the bearish inertia.
- More importantly, during March the price closed the June 2021 low gap.
- We have been saying since last year that there were probably bulls trapped into long buying below the June 2021 low, since it was a reasonable buy: buying the bottom of a trading range that followed a bull trend.
- Moreover, we have been saying repeatedly that the price was probably within a trading range market cycle, not within a strong bear trend. Trading ranges tend to close the gaps, and fail the breakouts. Also, during trading ranges, below the 20 exponential moving average (20 EMA) is considered cheap, and above the 20 EMA it is considered expensive: March closed above the 20 EMA.
- Traders do not forget that before this up move, there was a tight bear leg, and that the first reversal up would be probably minor.
- Traders won’t probably buy strongly if they think that there are trapped bulls selling or if they think that they are not buying cheap.
- Therefore, it is better to not expect much upside potential during April.
如何交易
- 多頭：即使3月份的K線（飽滿陽K）對於後市來講是一個不錯的買入信號，但我依然認為市場環境對多頭來講並不樂觀。因此，多頭應該等待一段盤整行情（主要是吸收上方的賣盤壓力，重新積蓄多頭力量）或下跌（二次測試）的行情再進行買入。
- 空頭：空頭可以考慮在2021年6月的低點或先前熊市行情50%回撤附近的位置賣出，但目前多頭力量依然強勢，他們應該謹慎考慮並在盈利後儘快獲利了結
- Bulls: Even if March looks like a good buy signal bar, I think that the context is not promising for the bulls; thus, bulls should wait until there is another leg sideways to down before buying.
- Bears: They can sell at the June 2021 low or at or around a 50% retracement of the prior bear leg, but they should probably be quick to take profits since bulls are closing gaps.
比特幣周線圖
分析
- 上周的周線是一個收盤於2021年6月份低點附近的十字陽線，這是價格突破頭肩底（HSB）形態後的第二個十字星。
- 2023 年第一季度的收盤價 28735 美元將是下個季度最值得關注的價格之一，此外，我們還應該關注2022 年的收盤價 16520 美元和以往的重要支撐阻力區。
- 目前，多頭希望頭肩底形態的等距上漲得以實現，這是有可能的。但交易者要警惕，價格也很可能回到底部的區間內。在周線級別上，頭肩底形態突破之後卻出現了兩個十字星，這是市場猶豫不決的跡象。
- 在接下來的幾天裡，交易者需要觀察2023年第一季度收盤時的情況，以此來判斷未來的一段時間內市場傾向於買進還是賣出。
- 由於價格處於阻力位並且尚未突破，交易者應該預期在接下來的幾周時間內市場會出現雙邊交易行情或者進入一段下跌趨勢。
- Last week’s candlestick is a bull doji closing at the June 2021 low. It is the second consecutive doji after the bulls broke above a head and shoulders bottom (HSB) pattern.
- The Q1 2023 close at $28735 will be one of the most important prices to look at, together with the 2022 close at $16520 and the prior major lower high, during the next Quarter.
- Bulls want a measured move up of the HSB, and they might get it, but the price will probably continue its trading range inertia. Actually, 2 dojis followed the HSB bull breakout, which are signs of hesitation.
- During the following days, traders want to see what happens at the Q1 2023 close, if there is buying or if there is selling.
- Since the price is at resistances and not breaking yet clearly to the upside, traders should expect sideways to down trading during the following weeks.
如何交易
- 多頭：買方應該等待市場出現一個飽滿有力的陽K突破阻力再繼續買入，以期待市場價格完成頭肩底形態的等距上漲（34931附近）。
- 空頭：目前階段，基於交易者等式，從概率、風險和回報的角度來看，空頭可能處於一個很好的位置，他們可以在合理K線的價格上方、下方或者以當前價格進行賣出。
- Bulls: They should wait to buy above a good bull bar closing on its high, expecting to get to the HSB measured move.
- Bears: In terms of probability, risk and reward, they are probably at a sweet spot where they can sell reasonably at, above and below things.
譯自：<a href="https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/bitcoin-q1-2023/">https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/bitcoin-q1-2023/</a> </body> </html>