比特币2023年第一季度分析
市场回顾：
市值最大的虚拟货币比特币在2023年第一季度较去年上涨了73.94%，远远超越了技术性牛市的要求。目前，比特币正处于一个盘整区间，他到底
是蓄势待发，一飞冲天，带领加密货币市场迎来大牛市。亦或者如过往的一年一样，昙花一现，繁荣的外表不过是加密货币最后的圆舞曲，刺激着大众的贪
婪却又将机构的派发陷阱深深掩盖。作为这一期的市场分析，我们认为：接下来一年时间内，比特币很可能迎来一段属于交易区间的周期，在15000-50000价格区间震荡。
3个月为单位的k线图
分析
- 2023年第一季度的k线是一根近乎光头K线的饱满阳线，它突破了去年第三季度产生的波段高点 并回补了2021年第二季度的波段低点（补足了中间价格巨大差异产生的gap）
- 与以往比特币强劲的牛市不同，市场现在更像是在做一个牛旗回调。因为2020年比特币价格突破 了2017年的高点（更高高点）后并未跌回，最低价格至今依然坚守在2020年低点之上（更高低点）。
- 但是我们不得不承认，这个牛旗的回调很深，其不仅意味着过往的价格超买太多，还套住了所有在去 年的熊市当中急于抄底的交易者，当市场上涨，这些交易者急于卖出，使继续上涨的可能性变小。
- 空头并没有在去年年底的熊市中保持力量持续打压市场，这也意味着，他们认为市场严重超卖，并不 想继续以低价做空。
- 在大部分多头力量被套的情况下，多头不敢全力推高市场，同时，空头也不选择继续低位做空，这代 表着：在未来的一段时间内。市场很有可能发展成为交易区间。
- 根据目前的市场状况，交易者将预期接下来的20根k线是一段交易区间（20根k线在3个月时间 图上代表着5年）。在此之后，如果市场价格发展出了更高的高点和更高的低点，则意味着市场慢慢转向牛市。
- 2023 1st Quarter (Q1) candlestick is a bull breakout bar closing at its high. The bar is closing the gap between the price and a prior minor higher low (Q2 2021).
- The price is probably within a bull flag pattern during a bull trend, since the price holds above a major higher low (2020 low) after achieving a higher high: 2020s breakout above 2017 high.
- But the bull flag is significantly deep, which means that there were bulls that bought too high. Those bulls will probably sell during rallies, limiting or adding difficulty to a potential upside.
- Bears are not getting good follow through after their bear bars, which means that they do not want to sell low.
- Bulls would rather not buy high, Bears would rather not sell low: trading range trading is likely.
- Nowadays, with the current information, traders should expect a trading range during the next 20 bars. 20 bars on a 3-month chart mean 5 years, thereafter, a resumption of the bull trend will be more likely if the price manages to be above its major higher low.
如何交易
- 多头：买方希望能够在这一根强劲的阳K上方买入，使市场延续以往的牛市行情，但问题是过去一年 多时间内形成的卖盘非常强劲，市场完全有理由形成新的第二腿下跌。因此，买方如果想要做多，最好等待二次信号，或者考虑在2022年 第二季度k线的收盘价附近或低点下方买入
- 空头：卖方希望能够以更高的价格做空，比如在2021年高点的50%附近。那些在2022年第
二季度收盘价下方做空的人，其未平仓的仓位正在遭受严重浮亏，他们期望市场能够回到他们的入场价，使他们得以保本离场。
- Bulls: they might want to buy above the current bull signal bar, but the problem is that the previous selloff was strong enough to expect another leg sideways to down. Hence, they will do better waiting a 2nd entry or buying at Q2 2022 close or below bars.
- Bears: they might want to sell higher, like at or around a 50% retracement of the previous selloff. Those who sold at the Q2 2022 close, will try to exit (buy) breakeven if the price comes down to their entry price.
比特币月线图
分析
- 今年3月份的月线相对2月份是一个外包阳线，其收盘在在2021年6月份低点附近。
- 市场价格毫无疑问地突破了长久以来熊市的下行趋势，相对于过去长达一年的熊市，现在的买方更加活跃，力量也更加强大。
- 更重要的是，多头成功在今年3月份将过去市场跌破2021年6月低点后产生的的巨大缺口填补了。
- 我们从去年开始就警惕，市场上可能存在非常多的多头被套在了2021年6月低点附近[1]。从技术分析角度来看，在过去，这是一个合理的买入位置，原因是：这个低点如果未跌破，市场将极有可能由多头趋势转变为交易区间行情，亦或者由这个DB形成一轮新的上涨趋势
- 前文我们一直反复提到，市场周期很可能转变为一段长久的交易区间，而不是如过去一样，处于一个强劲的空头趋势中。交易区间的特征是：gap通常都会回补、市场突破交易区间常常失败，导致趋势在区间内不断反转。此外，在交易区间内，当价格低于20 EMA时，大众倾向市场价格是便宜的，与此相反，当价格高于 20 EMA时，大众则认为市场价格较为昂贵。我们可以看到，今年3月份的收盘价高于 20 EMA。
- 各位交易者都应该警惕，在此次上涨行情的背后，是一个强劲的熊市[2]。在一强劲的趋势末尾，第一次反转行情常常不可能带来一段新趋势。
- 综上所述，我们不应该对4月份还能保持充足的上涨力量有太大的期待。
- March candlestick’s is an outside up bar closing at the June 2021 low.
- The price definitely broke above the prior bear channel, meaning that bulls did a good step towards stopping the bearish inertia.
- More importantly, during March the price closed the June 2021 low gap.
- We have been saying since last year that there were probably bulls trapped into long buying below the June 2021 low, since it was a reasonable buy: buying the bottom of a trading range that followed a bull trend.
- Moreover, we have been saying repeatedly that the price was probably within a trading range market cycle, not within a strong bear trend. Trading ranges tend to close the gaps, and fail the breakouts. Also, during trading ranges, below the 20 exponential moving average (20 EMA) is considered cheap, and above the 20 EMA it is considered expensive: March closed above the 20 EMA.
- Traders do not forget that before this up move, there was a tight bear leg, and that the first reversal up would be probably minor.
- Traders won’t probably buy strongly if they think that there are trapped bulls selling or if they think that they are not buying cheap.
- Therefore, it is better to not expect much upside potential during April.
如何交易
- 多头：即使3月份的K线（饱满阳K）对于后市来讲是一个不错的买入信号，但我依然认为市场环境对多头来讲并不乐观。因此，多头应该等待一段盘整行情（主要是吸收上方的卖盘压力，重新积蓄多头力量）或下跌（二次测试）的行情再进行买入。
- 空头：空头可以考虑在2021年6月的低点或先前熊市行情50%回撤附近的位置卖出，但目前多头力量依然强势，他们应该谨慎考虑并在盈利后尽快获利了结
- Bulls: Even if March looks like a good buy signal bar, I think that the context is not promising for the bulls; thus, bulls should wait until there is another leg sideways to down before buying.
- Bears: They can sell at the June 2021 low or at or around a 50% retracement of the prior bear leg, but they should probably be quick to take profits since bulls are closing gaps.
比特币周线图
分析
- 上周的周线是一个收盘于2021年6月份低点附近的十字阳线，这是价格突破头肩底（HSB）形态后的第二个十字星。
- 2023 年第一季度的收盘价 28735 美元将是下个季度最值得关注的价格之一，此外，我们还应该关注2022 年的收盘价 16520 美元和以往的重要支撑阻力区。
- 目前，多头希望头肩底形态的等距上涨得以实现，这是有可能的。但交易者要警惕，价格也很可能回到底部的区间内。在周线级别上，头肩底形态突破之后却出现了两个十字星，这是市场犹豫不决的迹象。
- 在接下来的几天里，交易者需要观察2023年第一季度收盘时的情况，以此来判断未来的一段时间内市场倾向于买进还是卖出。
- 由于价格处于阻力位并且尚未突破，交易者应该预期在接下来的几周时间内市场会出现双边交易行情或者进入一段下跌趋势。
- Last week’s candlestick is a bull doji closing at the June 2021 low. It is the second consecutive doji after the bulls broke above a head and shoulders bottom (HSB) pattern.
- The Q1 2023 close at $28735 will be one of the most important prices to look at, together with the 2022 close at $16520 and the prior major lower high, during the next Quarter.
- Bulls want a measured move up of the HSB, and they might get it, but the price will probably continue its trading range inertia. Actually, 2 dojis followed the HSB bull breakout, which are signs of hesitation.
- During the following days, traders want to see what happens at the Q1 2023 close, if there is buying or if there is selling.
- Since the price is at resistances and not breaking yet clearly to the upside, traders should expect sideways to down trading during the following weeks.
如何交易
- 多头：买方应该等待市场出现一个饱满有力的阳K突破阻力再继续买入，以期待市场价格完成头肩底形态的等距上涨（34931附近）。
- 空头：目前阶段，基于交易者等式，从概率、风险和回报的角度来看，空头可能处于一个很好的位置，他们可以在合理K线的价格上方、下方或者以当前价格进行卖出。
- Bulls: They should wait to buy above a good bull bar closing on its high, expecting to get to the HSB measured move.
- Bears: In terms of probability, risk and reward, they are probably at a sweet spot where they can sell reasonably at, above and below things.
译自：<a href="https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/bitcoin-q1-2023/">https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/bitcoin-q1-2023/</a> </body> </html>