分类:MBRS

Major bear surprise, only 30% chance of bull trend reversal. Example: 20221129. See more on MBLS.

Context on HTF for e.g. daily chart could be an important factor to consider. For e.g. on 20230727, daily chart is overbought and is due for correction, bulls will take profit at new high and strong bears will initiate their shorts, when both sides are waiting for the best price to sell, the selloff could be quick and fast. With this being the context, if 5 mins has MBRS or consecutive MBRS like 44 and 46 on 5 mins chart, that is a reasonable good opportunity to trade the breakout, though it is scary because the risk is big, but the probability is also higher. When this happens, the context on LTF like 5 mins will become less important, for e.g. on 20230727, at 42, most traders might be looking for 2nd leg up because there is a 10 bars BLMC from 30, even after 43 close, probably not a lot of people are expecting the strong bear BO 44 and 46.

This is a type of "breakout trade". As Al points out that most breakout fails^[1], however when the breakout bar is significantly bigger than past 20 average bars, the odds of successful breakout increase significantly. And when the breakout bar is significantly bigger than past 20 average bars or so, we call it a major surprise, i.e. MBRS or MBLS.