阿布答疑：突破，持倉還是離場？

Source: Ask Al: Breakouts, when to exit or hold?

Question 1: Al, if you buy a breakout, how do you determine when to get out breakeven and when to hold through the pullback?

問題1：如果你買了突破，你怎樣確定什麼時候止損平倉，什麼時候堅持持有回撤？

Video duration: 6min 02sec

刮頭皮還是波段？ Scalp or swing?

For me, it depends on what your goal is.  This comes down to scalp versus swing.  If I’m buying a breakout and I’m doing it for a scalp, I don’t want the market to come back.  I’m pretty quick to get out.  If I think that a pullback is acceptable, a lot of times I’ll scale in during a pullback.  But if I’m looking at a pullback and I’m saying, 「Wait a minute, it should not be doing that,」 then I get out.

For a swing trade, depending on how big of a swing, and how far the target is, you have to allow pullbacks.  You have to assume that there’ll be pullbacks. As long as your premise is valid and as long as the market — in this case, a bull trend — as long as every pullback stays above the most recent breakout low.

對於我來說，這取決於您的目標是什麼。這歸結為刮頭皮與波段的區別。如果我正在購買突破並且我是為刮頭皮而做的，我不希望市場回調到我的入場點，所以我很快就會離場。如果我認為回調是可以接受的，很多時候我會在回調期間逐步加倉。但是，如果我正在看回調並且我說：「等一下，不應該這樣做，」那麼我就選擇離場了。

對于波段交易，取決于波段程度和目標的遠近，您必須允許回調，而且您必須假設會有回調。只要您的假設還未證實無效的，只要市場（以牛市為例）每次回調都保持在最近的突破低位之上。

反轉信號 Reversal signal

Sometimes you'll get a reversal signal before the market falls below a low.  So let's say you're long up here [B44/45], your stop is down here [below B38]. But let's say you decided to short below 57 or below 64, taking a chance for a Major Trend Reversal, that's okay.  So, you can get out even though it's still Always In Long.  But the Always In Long bulls strictly speaking, until they see a strong reversal down, they stay long as long as it's staying above the bottom of their last leg up.

有時候在市場跌破低點前，您會看到反轉信號。假設您在這裡（44/45）做多，您的止損位在這裡（低於38）。但是，假設您認為 Major Trend Reversal (MTR)正在進行中，決定在57以下或64以下做空 ，那也可以。因此，在 Always In Long（AIL）的情況下，您也可以離場。如果依照 Always In Long 嚴格要求，在看到強烈的逆轉K線之前，只要市場保持在上一個上升趨勢的底部以上，多頭就會一直持倉。

Question 2: When there’s a breakout like 61. While it is happening, how do differentiate from 28 or 38, to enter with market orders? How do you know how large the bar will be?

問題2：當出現像61這樣的突破時，如何在發生時把它與28或38區分以市場訂單進入？你怎麼知道K線的大小會是多少？

每次都要先形勢 Always review context

Okay, so he’s saying when you get a breakout like 61 right here and he’s comparing it to 28 or 38. Now first of all, context is a little bit different. Here we get a wedge bull flag, we’re getting late in the day, 11:30 for trend resumption or trend reversal. And then also as 61 was forming, I tried, it was going up very quickly—I placed a limit order to buy a two tick pull back. And instead of pulling back, it went up like three or four ticks and I was thinking to myself, 「Oh, that’s bad. That’s bad. I’m going to get trapped out.」 So I just hit 『Buy the Market』 and I keep my fingers crossed.

當61的突破正在進行時，我們要如何拿它來與28或38比較？ 首先，形勢有點不同。 在這裡（61），我們有個wedge bull flag（WBLF），而且這時候已經是太平洋時間晚上11:30（北京時間凌晨2點半），一般在這時間我們都會看到趨勢恢復或趨勢逆轉。 然後，當61正在形成時，它上漲得非常快，我嘗試用了一個限價單來購買兩個tick的回調。 但是，與其回調，它反而上升了三或四個tick，我正在想「哦，那糟糕了。我會失去入場的時機。」 於是我就只好以市價單立刻入場，然後希望市場會繼續上升。

快速做決策 Decide quickly

It’s like when you are a kid, you’re jumping off a high board for the first time. You stand up there and you hesitate and then you say, 「I’m just going to do it.」 So you bring your arms in tight and your knees up to your chest. Your cheeks are puffed up, you pinched your nose, your eyes are squeezed really hard, and you just jump and hope for the best. So when things are doing that, when they’re going up really quickly, you just don’t know. You have to decide quickly.

I knew that I wanted to buy and I usually try to buy with a limit order. And I probably did buy on a limit order on 28 or 27 or 37. Because that’s what I typically do. But here [36/49/57], I thought that we had a wedge and a micro double bottom like we’d go to the bottom and that we had the potential to get up to the 60-minute moving average for the high of the day so I thought there was a potential for a breakout.

就像當你還是個孩子，第一次在泳池跳下高台時那樣，你站在那裡猶豫不決，然後你說：「我只需鼓起勇氣做就行了。」你把手臂緊貼在身體兩側，將膝蓋抬到胸前，你的臉頰鼓起來，捏住鼻子，緊閉雙眼，然後你就跳下去，希望一切順利。所以當事情發展得很快時，而你根本不知道該怎麼做，你必須快速做決策。

我知道我想入場，我通常會嘗試用限價單購買。我可能在28或27或37時以限價單購買，因為那是我通常會做的事情。但是在這裡[36/49/57]，我認為我們有wedge（W）和micro double bottom（MDB）在底部形成支撐，而且我們有可能測試60分鐘移動平均線，所以我認為這個突破並不是假突破。

留意趨勢恢復或趨勢反轉的跡象 Look for trend resumption or reversal

And it’s really easy to get lulled into indifference when you’re in a sideways market for 2 hours like that. But around 11, 11:30, 12, I always start to pay a lot more attention. And I look for trend resumption or trend reversal. So, for me, you’re saying how do I know 28 and 38 are not going to be strongly bullish. Well, first of all, 28 — tight bear channel – it’s probably a minor reversal. And 38, right now, it’s a second leg up in a trading range day, and it’s just not all that big so I’m not too certain about that.

Here, we’ve got a wedge higher low and a very big bull-bar, the biggest bull-bar of the day, and we’re breaking out of what I think is a wedge bull flag or a triangle. And I tried to buy and could not buy the way I typically buy. So it’s probably something atypical about what’s going on. The character of the market might change.

當你一直在想這樣處於交易區的市場中連續交易了2個小時，你很容易對於市場的波動變得冷漠。但是大約在太平洋時間11點、11點半或12點左右（北京時間凌晨2點至3點之間），我總是開始更加留意市場任何趨勢恢復或趨勢反轉的跡象。因此，你想知道28和38會不會強烈看漲：首先，28是處於tight bear channel（TBRCH），所以這可能只是次要反轉；而38是交易區間日的第二個上漲，而且它的漲幅並不是很大，所以我對與會不會強烈看漲並不太確定。

在61，我們有 wedge higher low 和一個非常大的陽線，甚至是當天最大的陽線，我們還正突破 wedge bull flag 或 triangle（TRI）的區間。另外，我試圖做多但無法以我平常的方式入場，所以市場的性質可能將會發生變化。

Question 3. You mentioned that you missed the buy on the close of 61. What told you that it was a breakout while still in a sideways trading range? 問題3. 你提到錯過了61的尾盤買入機會。在當時仍處於交易區間，是什麼讓你認為這是一個突破？

限價單K線 Limit order bars

Well, two things. You’ve got this big-bull reversal bar, you always hear me talk about those bars being limit order bars with sellers above. Those sellers are scalpers. If the context is good, here we’re in a bull trend, at the moving average, I think most of the time you make a profit buying above 58. But you need a wide stop. And the alternative is instead of buying above 58, you place a limit order to buy a 50% pull back. And then 61, now we have a second entry buy setup, with closing on its high at the moving average. To me, that’s even a higher probability buy than buying above 58.

這裡有兩點你需要注意：57是一個很大的反轉陰線，你常聽我談論這些K線會吸引空頭在這K線的上方掛限價單，那些空頭都是刮頭皮交易員。如果形勢不錯，就像在這裡我們正處在多頭趨勢中，而且在移動平均線上，我認為大多數的時候你在58上方的位置做多會盈利，但你需要一個寬鬆的止損。另一個選擇是，不是在58以上買入，而是在50%回調處掛限價單。然後，在61我們有了一個第二次入場的機會，這K線在移動平均線上收盤接近高點。對我來說，這比在58以上買入有更高的概率。

做正確的事 The right thing to do

And [second thing] I talk, sometimes have stuff I have to do on the phone, doctor’s appointments, and contractors, who knows what. And my mother sometimes calls. She’s always amusing to me.

What happens is, she’ll call and she’d say 「Al. Did you call?」 And I know what she’s saying – she’s saying that she’s lonely. And she may be faking it. I don’t know, maybe half the time she says that nobody called, and she just wants to talk to me. So I say 「Oh? No Ma, but I can talk.」 So whenever she calls, I always take the call. I always speak with her a couple of times a week. And that results in me — it costs me money. But it’s still the right thing to do so I do it.

我有時必須在電話上處理事務，如醫生預約和與承包商洽談等。我母親有時也會打電話來，她總是逗我開心，她會打電話來問我「Al，你打電話了嗎？」。我知道她的意思是她很孤獨，有時她可能是在假裝，這我無法確定，也許有一半的時間她會說沒有人打電話，她只想和我聊天。所以我會說 「哦？媽，沒有，但我可以和你聊天。」所以，每當她打電話來，我總是會接聽，而且我每周都會和她交談幾次。雖然這樣在電話聊天會花費我不少錢，但這仍然是正確的事情，所以我這麼做。交易也是如此，你必須做正確的事情。