阿布答疑：突破，持仓还是离场？

Source: Ask Al: Breakouts, when to exit or hold?

Question 1: Al, if you buy a breakout, how do you determine when to get out breakeven and when to hold through the pullback?

问题1：如果你买了突破，你怎样确定何时止损平仓，何时坚持持有回撤？

Video duration: 6min 02sec

Scalp or swing?

For me, it depends on what your goal is.  This comes down to scalp versus swing.  If I’m buying a breakout and I’m doing it for a scalp, I don’t want the market to come back.  I’m pretty quick to get out.  If I think that a pullback is acceptable, a lot of times I’ll scale in during a pullback.  But if I’m looking at a pullback and I’m saying, “Wait a minute, it should not be doing that,” then I get out.

For a swing trade, depending on how big of a swing, and how far the target is, you have to allow pullbacks.  You have to assume that there’ll be pullbacks. As long as your premise is valid and as long as the market — in this case, a bull trend — as long as every pullback stays above the most recent breakout low. So breakout low — if it stays above that, it’s still long. Breakout low, stays above that. Breakout low, stays above that. Breakout low, stays above it. Breakout, stays above it, right? As long as every pullback stays above the prior strong leg up, the premise is still valid.

对于我来说，这取决于您的目标是什么。这归结为头皮与摆动的区别。如果我正在购买突破并且我是为头皮而做的，我不希望市场回来。我很快就会退出。如果我认为回撤是可以接受的，很多时候我会在回撤期间逐步加仓。但是，如果我正在看回撤并且我说：“等一下，不应该这样做，”那么我就退出了。

对于摆动交易，取决于摆动程度和目标的远近，您必须允许回撤。您必须假设会有回撤。只要您的前提是有效的，只要市场 - 在这种情况下，是牛市 - 只要每次回撤都保持在最近的突破低位之上。突破低点 - 如果它保持在上面，仍然是波动的。突破低点，保持在上面。突破低点，保持在上面。突破低点，保持在上面。突破低，保持在上面，对吧？只要每次回撤都保持在前一个强势上涨之上，那么前提仍然有效。

Reversal signal

Sometimes you’ll get a reversal signal before the market falls below a low.  So let’s say you’re long up here [B44/45], your stop is down here [below B38]. But let’s say you decided to short below 57 or below 64, taking a chance for a Major Trend Reversal, that’s okay.  So, you can get out even though it’s still Always In Long.  But the Always In Long bulls strictly speaking, until they see a strong reversal down, they stay long as long as it’s staying above the bottom of their last leg up.

有时候在市场跌破低点前，您会收到反转信号。假设您在这里（B44/45）做多，您的止损位在这里（低于B38）。但是，假设您决定在57以下或64以下做空，冒着主要趋势逆转的风险，那就可以了。因此，即使仍然保持始终多头，您也可以退出。但是始终多头的牛仍然严格要求，在看到强烈的下降逆转之前，只要市场保持在上一个上升趋势的底部以上，他们就会一直持有多头。

Question 2: When there’s a breakout like 61. While it is happening, how do differentiate from 28 or 38, to enter with market orders? How do you know how large the bar will be?

问题2：当出现像61这样的突破时，如何在发生时与28或38区分开来，以市场订单进入？你怎么知道杆的大小会是多少？

Always review context

Okay, so he’s saying when you get a breakout like 61 right here and he’s comparing it to 28 or 38, 38 or 28. Now first of all, context is a little bit different. Here we get a wedge bull flag, we’re getting late in the day, 11:30. For trend resumption or trend reversal. And then also as 61 was forming, I tried, it was going up very quickly—I placed a limit order to buy a two tick pull back. And instead of pulling back, I went up like three or four ticks and I was thinking to myself, “Oh, that’s bad. That’s bad. I’m going to get trapped out.” So I just hit ‘Buy the Market’ and I keep my fingers crossed.

好的，他说当你像61一样爆发，并将其与28或38进行比较时。 首先，上下文有点不同。 在这里，我们得到了楔形牛旗，已经到了晚上11:30，用于趋势恢复或趋势逆转。 然后，当61正在形成时，我尝试了一下，它上涨得非常快-我放置了一个限价单来购买两个拉回。 而不是拉回，它上升了三或四个可操作的价格，我正在想“哦，那很糟糕。那很糟糕。 我会被困住的。” 所以我只是按下'买入市场'，然后盘算我的手指。

Decide quickly

It’s like when you are a kid, you’re jumping off a high board for the first time. You stand up there and you hesitate and then you say, “I’m just going to do it.” So you bring your arms in tight and your knees up to your chest. Your cheeks are puffed up, you pinched your nose, your eyes are squeezed really hard, and you just jump and hope for the best. So when things are doing that, when they’re going up really quickly, you just don’t know. You have to decide quickly.

I knew that I wanted to buy and I usually try to buy with a limit order. And I probably did buy on a limit order on 28 or 27 or 37. Because that’s what I typically do. But here [36/49/57], I thought that we had a wedge and a micro double bottom like we’d go to the bottom and that we had the potential to get up to the 60-minute moving average for the high of the day so I thought there was a potential for a breakout.

就像当你还是个孩子，第一次跳下高台时那样。你站在那里犹豫不决，然后你说，“我要这么做。”你把手臂紧贴在身体两侧，将膝盖抬到胸前。你的脸颊鼓起来，捏鼻子，紧闭双眼，然后你就跳下去，希望结果最好。所以当事情发展得很快时，你根本不知道该怎么做。你必须快速决定。

我知道我想买，我通常会尝试用限价单购买。我可能在28或27或37时以限价单购买。因为那是我通常做的事情。但是在这里[36/49/57]，我认为我们有楔形和微型双底，就像我们会到达底部，而且我们有潜力达到一天的60分钟移动平均线，所以我认为有潜力进行突破。

Look for trend resumption or reversal

And it’s really easy to get lulled into indifference when you’re in a sideways market for 2 hours like that. But around 11, 11:30, 12, I always start to pay a lot more attention. And I look for trend resumption or trend reversal. So, for me, you’re saying how do I know 28 and 38 are not going to be strongly bullish. Well, first of all, 28 — tight bear channel – it’s probably a minor reversal. And 38, right now, it’s a second leg up in a trading range day, and it’s just not all that big so I’m not too certain about that.

Here, we’ve got a wedge higher low and a very big bull-bar, the biggest bull-bar of the day, and we’re breaking out of what I think is a wedge bull flag or a triangle. And I tried to buy and could not buy the way I typically buy. So it’s probably something atypical about what’s going on. The character of the market might change.

这很容易让你陷入冷漠状态，特别是像那样在一侧市场连续交易了2个小时。但是大约在11点、11点半或12点左右，我总是开始更加关注市场。我寻找趋势恢复或趋势反转的迹象。因此，对于我来说，你想知道28和38不会强烈看涨是如何的。首先，28 - 紧熊通道 - 这可能是一次次要反转。现在的38是交易区间日的第二个上涨期，而且并不是很大，所以我对此并不太确定。

在这里，我们看到上升趋势的楔形低位和一个非常大的上涨条，是当天最大的上涨条，我们正突破我认为是楔形公牛旗或三角形的区间。我试图购买，但无法以我通常的方式购买。所以市场的性质可能会发生改变。

Question 3. You mentioned that you missed the buy on the close of 61. What told you that it was a breakout while still in a sideways trading range? 问题3. 您提到错过了61美元的尾盘买入机会。在仍处于横盘交易区间时，什么告诉您这是一个突破？

Limit order bars

Well, two things. You’ve got this big-bull reversal bar, you always hear me talk about those bars being limit order bars with sellers above. Those sellers are scalpers. If the context is good, here we’re in a bull trend, at the moving average, I think most of the time you make a profit buying above 58. But you need a wide stop. And the alternative is instead of buying above 58, you place a limit order to buy a 50% pull back. And then 61, now we have a second entry buy setup, with closing on its high at the moving average. To me, that’s even a higher probability buy than buying above 58.

好的，两件事。你有一个很大的看空反转杆，你常听我谈论这些杆形成卖家卖价以上的限价杆。那些卖家是高频交易者。如果环境好，在这里我们处在多头趋势中，而且在移动平均线上，我认为大多数时间你买入58以上的位置会盈利。但你需要一个宽松的止损。另一个选择是，不是在58以上买入，而是下单在50%回撤处购买。然后，61，现在我们有了一个第二次入场的买入机会，在移动平均线上收盘最高点。对我来说，这比在58以上买入更高的概率。

The right thing to do

And [second thing] I talk, sometimes have stuff I have to do on the phone, doctor’s appointments, and contractors, who knows what. And my mother sometimes calls. She’s always amusing to me.

What happens is, she’ll call and she’d say “Al. Did you call?” And I know what she’s saying – she’s saying that she’s lonely. And she may be faking it. I don’t know, maybe half the time she says that nobody called, and she just wants to talk to me. So I say “Oh? No Ma, but I can talk.” So whenever she calls, I always take the call. I always speak with her a couple of times a week. And that results in me — it costs me money. But it’s still the right thing to do so I do it.

我讲话时，有时必须在电话上进行事务，如医生预约和承包商等。我母亲有时也会打电话来。她总是逗我开心。她会打电话来问我“Al，你打电话了吗？”。我知道她的意思是她很孤独。有时她可能是在假装。我不知道，也许有一半的时间她会说没有人打电话，她只想和我聊天。所以我会说 “哦？妈妈，没有，但我可以和你聊天。”所以，每当她打电话来，我总是接听。我每周都会和她交谈几次。虽然这花费了我一些钱，但仍然是正确的事情，所以我这么做。