Probability Table:修订间差异

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***Selling above a bear bar that breaks below a bear flag, anticipating a breakout pullback.
***Selling above a bear bar that breaks below a bear flag, anticipating a breakout pullback.
*60% chance a climactic sell off for 15-20 bars on the open evolves into TR<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/''</ref>.
*60% chance a climactic sell off for 15-20 bars on the open evolves into TR<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/''</ref>.
*60% of trending TRs reverse and test into early TR<ref>BTC 45A</ref>. This means traders sell the high of prior TR and scale in higher can make money.
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2022年11月13日 (日) 04:14的版本

Probability Table
Probability Items
90% 90% bars on the chart are within trading range[1].
80% The 80/20 Rule: in a trend, 80% of reversal attempt fails; in a TR, 80% of BO attempt fails.[2]
75% if yesterday was climactic, there is 75% chance of trading range for a few hours today[3].
70%
  • if a bar is exceptionally bigger than other bars(i.e. surprise bar), 70% chance of MM, especially when it has ok FT (at least doji).[4][5]
  • probability of success of 70 percent or better (reward has to be at least half as big as risk just to break even):
    • Scalps, but since most traders cannot consistently pick trades with a 70 percent chance of success, they should trade a scalp only if the reward is at least as large as the risk. For example, if you believe that a two-point stop is needed in the Emini, take the trade only if at least a two-point reward is reasonable[6].
  • if bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of Triangle[7].
  • 70% outside down days closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only 20% closes above middle point[8].
60%
  • Probability of success of 60 percent or better (reward has to be at least as big as risk to break even)[9]:
    • Buying a high 2 pullback to the moving average in a bull trend.
    • Selling a low 2 pullback to the moving average in a bear trend.
    • Buying a wedge bull flag pullback in a bull trend.
    • Selling a wedge bear flag pullback in a bear trend.
    • Buying a breakout pullback from a breakout of a bull flag in a bull trend.
    • Selling a breakout pullback from a breakout of a bear flag in a bear trend.
    • Buying a high 1 pullback in a strong bull spike in a bull trend, but not after a buy climax.
    • Selling a low 1 pullback in a strong bear spike in a bear trend, but not after a sell climax.
    • Shorting at the top of a trading range, especially if it is a second entry.
    • Buying at the bottom of a trading range, especially if it is a second entry.
    • Trend reversals:
      • After a strong break of the trend line, look for a reversal after a test of the trend's extreme where there is a good reversal signal bar. Traders are looking to buy a higher low or a lower low at a bottom, or to short a higher high or a lower high at a top.[10]
      • Strong final flag reversal.
      • Buying a third or fourth push down in a bear stairs pattern for a test of the low of the prior push down.
      • Selling a third or fourth push up in a bull stairs pattern for a test of the high of the prior push up.
    • Entering using limit orders; this requires more experience reading charts, because the trader is entering in a market that is going in the opposite direction to the trade. However, experienced traders can reliably use limit or market orders with these setups:
      • Buying a bull spike in a strong bull breakout at the market or at the close of the bar, or on a limit order at or below the low of the prior bar[11] (entering in spikes requires a wider stop and the spike happens quickly, so this combination is difficult for many traders).
      • Selling a bear spike in a strong bear breakout at the market or at the close of the bar, or on a limit order at or above the high of the prior bar (entering in spikes requires a wider stop and the spike happens quickly, so this combination is difficult for many traders).
      • Buying a bear breakout at around a measured move, if the breakout is not too strong—for example, if the range is about four points tall in the Emini, buying on a limit order at four points below the range, risking four points, and expecting a test of the breakout point. Only very experienced traders should consider this.
      • Selling a bull breakout at around a measured move, if the breakout is not too strong—for example, if the range is about four points tall in the Emini, selling on a limit order at four points above the range, risking four points, and expecting a test of the breakout point. Only very experienced traders should consider this.
      • Buying at or below a low 1 or 2 weak signal bar on a limit order in a possible new bull trend after a strong reversal or at the bottom of a trading range.
      • Shorting at or above a high 1 or 2 weak signal bar on a limit order in a possible new bear trend after a strong reversal or at the top of a trading range.
      • Buying at or below the prior bar on a limit order in a quiet bull flag at the moving average.
      • Shorting at or above the prior bar on a limit order in a quiet bear flag at the moving average.
      • Buying below a bull bar that breaks above a bull flag, anticipating a breakout pullback.
      • Selling above a bear bar that breaks below a bear flag, anticipating a breakout pullback.
  • 60% chance a climactic sell off for 15-20 bars on the open evolves into TR[12].
  • 60% of trending TRs reverse and test into early TR[13]. This means traders sell the high of prior TR and scale in higher can make money.
50%
  • 50% of strong moves on the open reverse.[14]
  • FOMC breakout has 50% chance of reversing, like a breakout on the open[15].
  • when yesterday was a buy climax, there is a 50% chance of follow through buying in next day starting from 1st hour[16]. Vice versa.
40% An average MTR setup has about a 40% chance of leading to a profitable swing[17].
30% An average MTR setup has about a 30% chance of a small loss, and a 30% chance of a small profit[18].

Major bull surprise usually only have 30% chance of a bear trend[19].

25% 25% of the time after a buy climax day, you get an hour or two rally the next day[20].
20%
  • only 20% of time the first bar leads to H or L of the day[21]
  • The 80/20 Rule: in a trend, 20% of reversal succeed; in a TR, 20% of BO succeed.
10% 10% of time, market is in breakout, price moves fast to find new TR[22].
  1. BTC 02C.
  2. https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/price-action-fundamentals/video-13a-always-in/
  3. discord from brad wolff on 7-20-2022
  4. Category:Exceptionally Big Bar
  5. Always in Short
  6. TR book, chapter 25
  7. Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High
  8. https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/
  9. TR book, chapter 25
  10. note that the 60% probability here is based on 1:1 RR as mentioned at the beginning, if 2:1 RR i.e. a swing, the probability will be around only 40%: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/price-action/10-best-price-action-trading-patterns/#1-major-trend-reversals
  11. if the market falls to the low of the prior bar, is this still a reliable strong bull spike? 7-25-2022, paul
  12. https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/
  13. BTC 45A
  14. Always in Short
  15. https://www.papals.live/index.php?title=20221102&venotify=created
  16. Encyclopedia:Yesterday Was Buy Climax
  17. CHAPTER 3 Major Trend Reversal
  18. CHAPTER 3 Major Trend Reversal
  19. https://www.papals.live/index.php?title=20221102&venotify=created
  20. PriceActionRoles mentioned this on 8-1-2022: This specific open is explained in BTC Brooks Course Chapter 48A-B-C-D-E-F (6 videos. video 5 and 6)
  21. Brad wolf, discord chat, 7-22-2022
  22. BTC 02C.