Probability Table:修订间差异
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* No matter how strong the trend is, '''99.5% of the day there is at least one bar closes below the EMA'''. Example of the 0.5%: [[20221122]]. | * No matter how strong the trend is, '''99.5% of the day there is at least one bar closes below the EMA'''. Example of the 0.5%: [[20221122]]. | ||
* 90% of the time the BO phase is followed by a PB, and then a channel(aka [[SC]]) or TR, only 10% of the chance the bull BO reverses, usually as a parabolic wedge top. <ref>49A</ref> | * 90% of the time the BO phase is followed by a PB, and then a channel(aka [[SC]]) or TR, only 10% of the chance the bull BO reverses, usually as a parabolic wedge top. <ref>49A</ref> | ||
* 90% of | * There is 90% chance of at least one swing trade everyday that starts with '''a good signal bar''', typically goes 40% of recent average day's range<ref>[[20230329]]</ref>, has '''two or more legs''', has '''a reward at least twice the risk''', and '''lasts at least 1-2 hours'''. | ||
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|80% | |80% | ||
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* when yesterday was a buy climax, there is a 50% chance of follow through buying in next day starting from 1st hour<ref>[[Encyclopedia:Yesterday Was Buy Climax]]</ref>. Vice versa. | * when yesterday was a buy climax, there is a 50% chance of follow through buying in next day starting from 1st hour<ref>[[Encyclopedia:Yesterday Was Buy Climax]]</ref>. Vice versa. | ||
* when there are 2 big bear bars late in the bear trend, 50% chance the selloff has ended(''which means the probability is not high enough for a scalp'') and 50% chance of one more small leg down. See example in [[:Category:SX|Category:SX]]. | * when there are 2 big bear bars late in the bear trend, 50% chance the selloff has ended(''which means the probability is not high enough for a scalp'') and 50% chance of one more small leg down. See example in [[:Category:SX|Category:SX]]. | ||
* when market is in BOM, there is 50% chance successful breakout up or down, and then about a measured move based on the height of trading range. Also there is 50% chance 1st breakout up or down will reverse. | |||
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|40% | |40% | ||
|An '''average''' MTR setup has about a 40% chance of leading to a profitable swing<ref>[[CHAPTER 3 Major Trend Reversal]]</ref>. | | | ||
* An '''average''' MTR setup has about a 40% chance of leading to a profitable swing<ref>[[CHAPTER 3 Major Trend Reversal]]</ref>. | |||
* A [[:Category:BLBCOH-X1-O|BLBCOH-X1-O]] after a [[BGD]] has 40% chance being LOD, vice versa. | |||
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|30% | |30% |
2024年5月11日 (六) 20:53的最新版本
Probability Table
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90% |
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80% |
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70% |
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60% |
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50% |
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40% |
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30% | |
20% |
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10% | 10% of time, market is in breakout, price moves fast to find new TR[26]. |
- ↑ BTC 02C.
- ↑ 49A
- ↑ 20230329
- ↑ https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/price-action-fundamentals/video-13a-always-in/
- ↑ Category:Exceptionally Big Bar
- ↑ Always in Short
- ↑ 49A
- ↑ TR book, chapter 25
- ↑ Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High
- ↑ https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/
- ↑ discord from brad wolff on 7-20-2022
- ↑ TR book, chapter 25
- ↑ note that the 60% probability here is based on 1:1 RR as mentioned at the beginning, if 2:1 RR i.e. a swing, the probability will be around only 40%: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/price-action/10-best-price-action-trading-patterns/#1-major-trend-reversals
- ↑ if the market falls to the low of the prior bar, is this still a reliable strong bull spike? 7-25-2022, paul
- ↑ https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/
- ↑ BTC 45A
- ↑ Always in Short
- ↑ https://www.papals.live/index.php?title=20221102&venotify=created
- ↑ Encyclopedia:Yesterday Was Buy Climax
- ↑ CHAPTER 3 Major Trend Reversal
- ↑ CHAPTER 3 Major Trend Reversal
- ↑ https://www.papals.live/index.php?title=20221102&venotify=created
- ↑ See 20221129, major bear surprise so 30% chance of bull trend reversal.
- ↑ Brad wolf, discord chat, 7-22-2022
- ↑ PriceActionRoles mentioned this on 8-1-2022: This specific open is explained in BTC Brooks Course Chapter 48A-B-C-D-E-F (6 videos. video 5 and 6)
- ↑ BTC 02C.