Probability Table

Probability Table

Probability	Items
90%	90% bars on the chart are within trading range. In a strong bull trend day (more than 50 bars above MA), 99.5% of the time there are at least 3 bars with L below EMA. No matter how strong the trend is, 99.5% of the day it gets to EMA sometime during the day. No matter how strong the trend is, 99.5% of the day there is at least one bar closes below the EMA. Example of the 0.5%: 20221122.
80%	The 80/20 Rule: in a trend, 80% of reversal attempt fails; in a TR, 80% of BO attempt fails. when big gap down, 85% chance of PB in 1st two hours. 80% of the time when pullback to EMA comes after 40 or more bars below the EMA, there will be a selloff that will test the low, however only in 20% of the time the SPBRT sells off to far below the old low with the day closing on the low. Example 20221206.
70%	if a bar is exceptionally bigger than other bars(i.e. surprise bar), 70% chance of MM, especially when it has ok FT (at least doji). probability of success of 70 percent or better (reward has to be at least half as big as risk just to break even): Scalps, but since most traders cannot consistently pick trades with a 70 percent chance of success, they should trade a scalp only if the reward is at least as large as the risk. For example, if you believe that a two-point stop is needed in the Emini, take the trade only if at least a two-point reward is reasonable. if bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of Triangle. 70% outside down days closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only 20% closes above middle point. when big gap down, 70% chance of swing down after 10am. if yesterday was climactic, there is 75% chance of trading range for a few hours today. when big gap down, 75% chance trending trading range day. 75% chance the BO above a Bull Channel fails within the next 5 bars.
60%	Probability of success of 60 percent or better (reward has to be at least as big as risk to break even): Buying a high 2 pullback to the moving average in a bull trend. Selling a low 2 pullback to the moving average in a bear trend. Buying a wedge bull flag pullback in a bull trend. Selling a wedge bear flag pullback in a bear trend. Buying a breakout pullback from a breakout of a bull flag in a bull trend. Selling a breakout pullback from a breakout of a bear flag in a bear trend. Buying a high 1 pullback in a strong bull spike in a bull trend, but not after a buy climax. Selling a low 1 pullback in a strong bear spike in a bear trend, but not after a sell climax. Shorting at the top of a trading range, especially if it is a second entry. Buying at the bottom of a trading range, especially if it is a second entry. Trend reversals: After a strong break of the trend line, look for a reversal after a test of the trend's extreme where there is a good reversal signal bar. Traders are looking to buy a higher low or a lower low at a bottom, or to short a higher high or a lower high at a top. Strong final flag reversal. Buying a third or fourth push down in a bear stairs pattern for a test of the low of the prior push down. Selling a third or fourth push up in a bull stairs pattern for a test of the high of the prior push up. Entering using limit orders; this requires more experience reading charts, because the trader is entering in a market that is going in the opposite direction to the trade. However, experienced traders can reliably use limit or market orders with these setups: Buying a bull spike in a strong bull breakout at the market or at the close of the bar, or on a limit order at or below the low of the prior bar (entering in spikes requires a wider stop and the spike happens quickly, so this combination is difficult for many traders). Selling a bear spike in a strong bear breakout at the market or at the close of the bar, or on a limit order at or above the high of the prior bar (entering in spikes requires a wider stop and the spike happens quickly, so this combination is difficult for many traders). Buying a bear breakout at around a measured move, if the breakout is not too strong—for example, if the range is about four points tall in the Emini, buying on a limit order at four points below the range, risking four points, and expecting a test of the breakout point. Only very experienced traders should consider this. Selling a bull breakout at around a measured move, if the breakout is not too strong—for example, if the range is about four points tall in the Emini, selling on a limit order at four points above the range, risking four points, and expecting a test of the breakout point. Only very experienced traders should consider this. Buying at or below a low 1 or 2 weak signal bar on a limit order in a possible new bull trend after a strong reversal or at the bottom of a trading range. Shorting at or above a high 1 or 2 weak signal bar on a limit order in a possible new bear trend after a strong reversal or at the top of a trading range. Buying at or below the prior bar on a limit order in a quiet bull flag at the moving average. Shorting at or above the prior bar on a limit order in a quiet bear flag at the moving average. Buying below a bull bar that breaks above a bull flag, anticipating a breakout pullback. Selling above a bear bar that breaks below a bear flag, anticipating a breakout pullback. 60% chance a climactic sell off for 15-20 bars on the open evolves into TR. 60% of trending TRs reverse and test into early TR. This means traders sell the high of prior TR and scale in higher can make money. when big gap down, 60% chance of swing down in 1st hour.
50%	50% of strong moves on the open reverse. FOMC breakout has 50% chance of reversing, like a breakout on the open. when yesterday was a buy climax, there is a 50% chance of follow through buying in next day starting from 1st hour. Vice versa. when there are 2 big bear bars late in the bear trend, 50% chance the selloff has ended(which means the probability is not high enough for a scalp) and 50% chance of one more small leg down. See example in Category:SX.
40%	An average MTR setup has about a 40% chance of leading to a profitable swing.
30%	An average MTR setup has about a 30% chance of a small loss, and a 30% chance of a small profit. Major bull surprise usually only have 30% chance of a bear trend. Vice versa. when big gap down, only 35% chance gap will close today.
20%	only 20% of time the first bar leads to H or L of the day The 80/20 Rule: in a trend, 20% of reversal succeed; in a TR, 20% of BO succeed. 25% of the time after a buy climax day, you get an hour or two rally the next day. when there are 2 big bear bars late in the bear trend, only 20% chance of MG because of the extreme selling. See example in Category:SX. 80% of the time when pullback to EMA comes after 40 or more bars below the EMA, there will be a selloff that will test the low, however only in 20% of the time the SPBRT sells off to far below the old low with the day closing on the low.
10%	10% of time, market is in breakout, price moves fast to find new TR.

Low or Low of Day. ➟ More about L

Pullback. ➟ More about PB

➟ More about SPBRT

Measured Move. ➟ More about MM

Follow Through. ➟ More about FT

Federal Open Market Committee meeting and announcement. ➟ More about FOMC

Major Trend Reversal. ➟ More about MTR

High or High of Day. ➟ More about H

Measuring Gap, a gap of any kind that can lead to a measured move (only certain in hindsight). ➟ More about MG

Buy The Close bull trend so traders will buy the close of bull bar closing near its high or buy above bull bar that closes near its high. ➟ More about BTC

Risk Reward, or Risk Reward Ratio, most easily thought of as the size of your stop compared to the size of your profit target. ➟ More about RR

Buy or Long, depending on context. 买入或做多，视情况而定 ➟ More about B

Close. ➟ More about C

➟ More about F