Category:MBRS：修订间差异

Major bear surprise, only 30% chance of bull trend reversal. Example: 20221129. See also on MBLS.

Context on HTF for e.g. daily chart could be an important factor to consider. For e.g. on 20230727, daily chart has been overbought and is due for correction, bulls will be looking to take profit at new high and strong bears will look to initiate their shorts, when both sides are waiting for the best price to sell, the selloff could be quick and fast. With this being the context, if 5 mins has MBRS or consecutive MBRS like 44 and 46 on 5 mins chart, that is a reasonable good bet for a quick and strong bear breakout, though it looks scary shorting at the time because the risk is usually big (for e.g. shorting 46L) and the context on 5 mins chart does not usually look that bearish, sometime even look very bullish (but at the same time it is also some kind of climactic buying), but the probability is also higher.

In this situation, the context on LTF like 5 mins will become less important, for e.g. on 20230727, at 42c, most traders might be looking for at least a small 2nd leg up because there is a 10 bars BLMC from 30, even at 43c, probably not a lot of people would expect the strong bear BO 44 and 46 and the big sell off in the afternoon.

Trading MBRS or MBLS is a type of "breakout trade". As Al points out "most breakout fails^[1]", however when the breakout bar is significantly bigger than past average bars (20 bars or so), the odds of successful breakout increase significantly. And when the breakout bar is significantly bigger than past average bars, we call it a major surprise, i.e. MBRS or MBLS.