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「10 best price action trading patterns」：修訂間差異
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The closer any pattern is to ideal, the more reliable it is because more computers will treat it as significant. However, traders should never lose sight of the underlying forces and should learn to become comfortable with every conceivable variation of every pattern. This will give them far more trading opportunities. | The closer any pattern is to ideal, the more reliable it is because more computers will treat it as significant. However, traders should never lose sight of the underlying forces and should learn to become comfortable with every conceivable variation of every pattern. This will give them far more trading opportunities. | ||
[[文件:10PA Fig9.png|无|缩略图|800x800像素|A wedge top is a bull channel that is converging. Most wedge tops have 3 legs up, but some have a 4th and rarely a 5th. Traders sell below a bear bar closing near its low and expect at least 2 legs down. The legs often subdivide into smaller legs. Any bull channel should be viewed as a bear flag since there is a 75% chance of a break below the bull trend line.]] | |||
[[文件:10PA Fig10.png|无|缩略图|800x800像素|Wedges are rarely perfect, and most do not look like a textbook wedge. If a bear channel has 3 legs down, even if the channel does not have a wedge shape, view it as a wedge. The same forces are at work. The market is trying to go down repeatedly, but keeps reversing up. At some point, traders decide it needs to try the other direction (up).]] | |||
[[文件:10PA Fig11.png|无|缩略图|800x800像素|If there are 3 surges in a tight bull channel, the channel is a parabolic wedge. This is a buy climax and it can lead to a trading range, or even a bear trend reversal, like here.]] | |||
=== Channels === | === Channels === | ||
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However, traders know what channels really look like and they are very flexible when they choose points to draw lines. Once they see two points, they draw a line and watch to see if the market reverses if it get back to the line. They are constantly erasing lines that the market is ignoring and are always drawing new ones. | However, traders know what channels really look like and they are very flexible when they choose points to draw lines. Once they see two points, they draw a line and watch to see if the market reverses if it get back to the line. They are constantly erasing lines that the market is ignoring and are always drawing new ones. | ||
[[文件:10PA Fig12.png|无|缩略图|800x800像素|Every market is always in a channel. Sometimes it is clearer on a smaller or higher time frame chart. Traders look to enter on reversals since reversals are more common that breakouts.]] | |||
[[文件:10PA Fig13.png|无|缩略图|800x800像素|A micro channel is a series of bars without a pullback. It is a strong trend, but once it reaches about 10 bars, it is unsustainable. It therefore is also a climax. A climax typically evolves into a trading range.]] | |||
[[文件:10PA Fig14.png|无|缩略图|800x800像素|The S&P cash index was in a wedge bull channel from the 1987 crash to late 1994. It is difficult to see because the rally that followed a breakout above the bull channel has been huge. There is only a 25% chance of a successful breakout above a bull channel.]] | |||
=== Measured moves === | === Measured moves === | ||
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Also, traders look for a measured move after a breakout from a trading range. They expect the move to be about the same size as the trading range is tall. The are many other types of measured moves that the computers use to either take profits or to enter reversal trades, and several are based on intraday gaps, or the height of breakouts. | Also, traders look for a measured move after a breakout from a trading range. They expect the move to be about the same size as the trading range is tall. The are many other types of measured moves that the computers use to either take profits or to enter reversal trades, and several are based on intraday gaps, or the height of breakouts. | ||
[[文件:10PA fig15.png|无|缩略图|800x800像素|When there is a pullback from a trend, the trend typically resumes. The 2nd leg is frequently very close in size to the 1st leg. This is a Leg 1 = Leg 2 Measured Move. Traders look to sell a reversal down for a test of the Measured Move target.]] | |||
[[文件:10PA Fig16.png|无|缩略图|800x800像素|When there is a breakout, the trend often continues for a measured move based on the height of the earlier range. Traders buy the bull trend and any pullback. They especially like a pullback that tests the breakout point, but then reverses back up.]] | |||
=== Trading range reversals === | === Trading range reversals === | ||
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Even when the market trended down at midday, they expected the breakout to the new low of the day to fail. This is because that’s what usually happens on trading range days. They bought the reversal up, betting that the rally would get back above the breakout point (the low of the first hour) and back into the trading range. | Even when the market trended down at midday, they expected the breakout to the new low of the day to fail. This is because that’s what usually happens on trading range days. They bought the reversal up, betting that the rally would get back above the breakout point (the low of the first hour) and back into the trading range. | ||
[[文件:10PA Fig17.png|无|缩略图|800x800像素|The legs up and down in a trading range are often strong. When they are, traders have a higher probability of making money if they wait for a 2nd signal.]] | |||
=== Opening reversals === | === Opening reversals === | ||
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Most strong bull trend bars on the daily chart have at least a small tail on the bottom, which is usually caused by an opening reversal (a selloff on the open that reverses up, and it is therefore a reversal pattern). Similarly, most bear trend bars on the daily chart usually have a tail on top caused by an opening reversal down. | Most strong bull trend bars on the daily chart have at least a small tail on the bottom, which is usually caused by an opening reversal (a selloff on the open that reverses up, and it is therefore a reversal pattern). Similarly, most bear trend bars on the daily chart usually have a tail on top caused by an opening reversal down. | ||
[[文件:10PA Fig18.png|无|缩略图|800x800像素|There was a huge selloff on the open. It was a sell vacuum test of yesterday’s low, which is always a good candidate for support. The market rallied for the rest of the day.]] | |||
[[文件:10PA Fig19.png|无|缩略图|800x800像素|After a gap up, the market pulled back to the 20 bar EMA. The reversal up was the 3rd rally attempt and therefore this Opening Reversal was a wedge bull flag test of the EMA.]] | |||
[[文件:10PA Fig20.png|无|缩略图|800x800像素|Whenever there is a gap down, traders will watch for a double top bear flag around the EMA. They will sell the reversal down, hoping for an early high of the day and a bear trend.]] | |||
=== Magnets (support and resistance) === | === Magnets (support and resistance) === | ||
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Common magnets include the tops and bottoms of trading ranges, prior highs and lows, trend lines, channels, measured move projections, and moving averages. Computers control the market, and all support and resistance is based on things that computer programs can calculate. The result is that the market often accelerates near the target once a substantial number of algorithms believe that the target will be reached. | Common magnets include the tops and bottoms of trading ranges, prior highs and lows, trend lines, channels, measured move projections, and moving averages. Computers control the market, and all support and resistance is based on things that computer programs can calculate. The result is that the market often accelerates near the target once a substantial number of algorithms believe that the target will be reached. | ||
[[文件:10PA Fig21.png|无|缩略图|800x800像素|When a market breaks above a prior high, it often pulls back to test that breakout point. Bulls will buy a reversal up.]] | |||
[[文件:10PA Fig22.png|无|缩略图|800x800像素|A trading range day often oscillates around the open all day. If the market is near the high or low of the day in the final 2 hours, look for a reversal toward the open. Most trading range days end the day around the open.]] | |||
[[文件:10PA Fig23.png|无|缩略图|800x800像素|Beginner gets upset by strong rally suddenly becoming endless bear trend.]] | |||
[[文件:10PA Fig24.png|无|缩略图|800x800像素|Experienced trader knows where resistance is and looks for a reversal down. Any strong rally to resistance can simply be a buy vacuum test of the resistance.]] | |||
== References == | == References == | ||