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「Four Trades off Nine Transitions」：修訂間差異
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''Obvious reversals are rarer on a given day, but the Wedge reversal is likely to be the most successful. The most important requirement of a Wedge reversal is an obvious overshoot (more than 2t) and especially a second overshoot. It takes some experience to correctly read a good Wedge reversal, but t'''he following signs increase the probability of a W reversal:''''' | ''Obvious reversals are rarer on a given day, but the Wedge reversal is likely to be the most successful. The most important requirement of a Wedge reversal is an obvious overshoot (more than 2t) and especially a second overshoot. It takes some experience to correctly read a good Wedge reversal, but t'''he following signs increase the probability of a W reversal:''''' | ||
''1. A second overshoot'' | |||
''2. A strong reversal bar or a up/down bar that has no overlap with previous bars or'' ''overlap with the previous swing point'' | |||
'' | ''3. A strong entry bar (shaved or small tailed trend bar)'' | ||
'' | ''4. The entry bar low is not taken out by more than 1t'' | ||
''5. A one legged move to ema. (A close above the ema may end up giving an A2 long or'' ''short instead of W1P)'' | |||
''If at least three of the above are present, you can take the first higher low for bullish W or first lower high for bear W since that becomes a W1P. If the reversal bar was weak or W entry or W1P signal looks suspicious for example because its a doji or an overlap or large bar, sometimes you get a two legged W1P.'' | ''If at least three of the above are present, you can take the first higher low for bullish W or first lower high for bear W since that becomes a W1P. If the reversal bar was weak or W entry or W1P signal looks suspicious for example because its a doji or an overlap or large bar, sometimes you get a two legged W1P.'' | ||
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'''''The following decrease the chances of a successful W1P.''''' | '''''The following decrease the chances of a successful W1P.''''' | ||
''1. Overshoot is small (a tick or two) and there is only a single overshoot'' | |||
'''''behaviors) | ''2. There is an overshoot but it does not look like extreme behavior (W are extreme'' ''behaviors)'' | ||
''3. W signal and entry bars are weak'' | |||
''The above signs of weakness may imply trend termination into trading range or a pullback and resumption.'' | ''The above signs of weakness may imply trend termination into trading range or a pullback and resumption.'' | ||
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''Breakouts from a trading range are complex and are the hardest to read correctly, especially because most breakouts fail. However, '''there are certain signs of impending breakouts:''''' | ''Breakouts from a trading range are complex and are the hardest to read correctly, especially because most breakouts fail. However, '''there are certain signs of impending breakouts:''''' | ||
''1. A double bottom pullback at the bottom of the range generally means the market may breakout at the top of the range. Similarly a DP at the top implies market will breakout at the bottom.'' | |||
''2. A breakout failure at one end of the trading range may breakout into a trend on the other end of the range, often giving a breakout pullback on the other end.'' | |||
''3. A W move and breakout to one end of the trading range may give a failed breakout, which in turn breaks out from the other end of the range.'' | |||
''In general, its best to trade a breakout pullback after the breakout is successful. If a breakout does not fail after two or three bars then its more likely to give a breakout pullback. If you are a new trader, I suggest concentrating only on A2 till you have mastered it then move to W1P and then to breakouts and failed breakouts.'' | ''In general, its best to trade a breakout pullback after the breakout is successful. If a breakout does not fail after two or three bars then its more likely to give a breakout pullback. If you are a new trader, I suggest concentrating only on A2 till you have mastered it then move to W1P and then to breakouts and failed breakouts.'' | ||