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「Category:ORV」：修訂間差異
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* 80% of days, the market opens have reversals (''Opening Reversal, indicating the end of the trend from the open''), which means '''Trend From The Open lasting all day only 20% of day ''(i.e. once every week on average)'''''<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/181030-futuresio-Patterns-on-the-Open-Al-Brooks.pdf'' </ref><ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/171017-Futures.io-Presentation-Opening-Reversals-Al-Brooks.pdf''</ref>. | * 80% of days, the market opens have reversals (''Opening Reversal, indicating the end of the trend from the open''), which means '''Trend From The Open lasting all day only 20% of day ''(i.e. once every week on average)'''''<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/181030-futuresio-Patterns-on-the-Open-Al-Brooks.pdf'' </ref><ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/171017-Futures.io-Presentation-Opening-Reversals-Al-Brooks.pdf''</ref>. | ||
* Generally, when there is a strong BO on the open, the market '''reverse in 50% of days''', no matter how strong the initial BO looks like, '''however at the same time, notice that by the close of 2nd bar closing near its low, 60% chance of MM down from the open of 1st bar to the close of the final bar of the bear BO (in bear case)'''<ref>''[https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/bonus-videos/trading-patterns-on-the-open/ Bonus Video 02: Trading Patterns on the Open]''</ref>. | * Generally, when there is a strong BO on the open, the market '''reverse in 50% of days''', no matter how strong the initial BO looks like, '''however at the same time, notice that by the close of 2nd bar closing near its low, 60% chance of MM down from the open of 1st bar to the close of the final bar of the bear BO (in bear case)'''<ref>''[https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/bonus-videos/trading-patterns-on-the-open/ Bonus Video 02: Trading Patterns on the Open]''</ref>. | ||
**''If it is to become a successful reversal, it usually starts with a Double Bottom(or DT) or Wedge Bottom(or WT).'' | **''For it to become a successful reversal, '''the single most important thing to look for is''' '''whether the initial move is climatic'''.'' | ||
**''When the context is right, the chance of a successful reversal can increase to '''60% or higher'''. For e.g. if the open has a | **''If it is to become a successful reversal, it usually starts with a Double Bottom(or DT) or Wedge Bottom(or WT).'' | ||
**''When the context is right, the chance of a successful reversal can increase to '''60% or higher'''. For e.g. if the open has a very strong selloff for 18 bars, and market forms a possible consecutive parabolic wedge bottom, and there is a huge bear bar late in the bear trend, there is 60% chance of a successful bull reversal or one more leg down and then reversal. See example in [[Gap Up and Sell Climax, Then Reversal Up]].'' | |||
**''Factors that can '''increase''' the probability of a successful reversal: (which increases the probability that the selloff on the open is some kind of profit taking or vacuum effect v.s. beginning of a strong bear trend)'' | **''Factors that can '''increase''' the probability of a successful reversal: (which increases the probability that the selloff on the open is some kind of profit taking or vacuum effect v.s. beginning of a strong bear trend)'' | ||
**#''yesterday was a bullish day'' | **#''yesterday was a bullish day (sign of climactic)'' | ||
**#''gap up on open'' | **#''gap up on open (sign of climactic)'' | ||
**#''the sell climax from the open has big bars or consecutive sell climaxes, indicating more bears probably get exhausted'' | **#''the sell climax from the open has big bars or consecutive sell climaxes, indicating more bears probably get exhausted (sign of climactic)'' | ||
**#''good looking entry bar and FT, especially when the reversal comes from major support levels, such as LoY, HoY, etc.'' | **#''good looking entry bar and FT, especially when the reversal comes from major support levels, such as LoY, HoY, etc.'' | ||
**#''PB after the entry bar looks weak for the bears, some scalping bears might sell the 1st reversal at EMA and the results will be a PB, the PB '''should not''' take out the low of the entry bar'' | **#''PB after the entry bar looks weak for the bears, some scalping bears might sell the 1st reversal at EMA and the results will be a PB, the PB '''should not''' take out the low of the entry bar'' | ||