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次編輯
「Category:ORV」：修訂間差異
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Opening Reversal. | Opening Reversal. | ||
* 80% of days, market test support or resistance in '''1st 90 minutes''', and the | * 80% of days, market test support or resistance in '''1st 90 minutes (bar 18)''', and the '''reversal often creates high or low of day.''' | ||
* 80% of days, the market opens have reversals (''Opening Reversal, indicating the end of the trend from the open''), which means Trend From The Open lasting all day | * 80% of days, the market opens have reversals (''Opening Reversal, indicating the end of the trend from the open''), which means Trend From The Open lasting all day only 20% of day<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/181030-futuresio-Patterns-on-the-Open-Al-Brooks.pdf''</ref>. | ||
* Generally, when there is a strong BO on the open, the market '''reverse in 50% of days''', | * Generally, when there is a strong BO on the open, the market '''reverse in 50% of days''', no matter how strong the initial BO looks like. | ||
** ''When the context is right, the chance of a successful reversal can increase to 60% or higher. For e.g. if the open has a selloff for around 18 bars, and market forms a possible consecutive parabolic wedge bottom, and there is a huge bear bar late in the bear trend, there is 60% chance of a successful bull reversal or one more leg down and then reversal. See example in [[Gap Up and Sell Climax, Then Reversal Up]]. | **''When the context is right, the chance of a successful reversal can increase to '''60% or higher'''. For e.g. if the open has a '''very strong selloff for around 18 bars''', and market forms a possible consecutive parabolic wedge bottom, and there is a huge bear bar late in the bear trend, there is 60% chance of a successful bull reversal or one more leg down and then reversal. See example in [[Gap Up and Sell Climax, Then Reversal Up]].'' | ||
**# ''yesterday was a bullish day'' | ** ''Factors that can '''increase''' the probability of a successful reversal: (which increases the probability that the selloff on the open is some kind of profit taking or vacuum effect v.s. beginning of a strong bear trend)'' | ||
**# ''gap up on open'' | **#''yesterday was a bullish day'' | ||
**# ''the sell climax from the open has big bars or consecutive sell climaxes, indicating more bears probably get exhausted'' | **#''gap up on open'' | ||
**# ''good looking entry bar and FT, especially when the reversal comes from major support levels, such as LoY, HoY, etc.'' | **#''the sell climax from the open has big bars or consecutive sell climaxes, indicating more bears probably get exhausted'' | ||
**# ''PB | **#''good looking entry bar and FT, especially when the reversal comes from major support levels, such as LoY, HoY, etc.'' | ||
**# ''other minor details such as gaps, tick gaps, etc.'' | **#''PB after the entry bar looks weak for the bears, some scalping bears might sell the 1st reversal at EMA and the results will be a PB, the PB '''should not''' take out the low of the entry bar'' | ||
** ''Factors that can '''decrease''' the probability of a successful reversal:'' | **#''other minor details such as gaps, tick gaps, etc.'' | ||
**''Factors that can '''decrease''' the probability of a successful reversal:'' | |||
**# ''the sell climax itself is a [[SPBRT]], which might indicate less exhausted bears, hence decrease the strength of bull reversal (if there is a reversal attempt).'' | **# ''the sell climax itself is a [[SPBRT]], which might indicate less exhausted bears, hence decrease the strength of bull reversal (if there is a reversal attempt).'' | ||
**# ''the first reversal fails immediately at EMA and PB to entry bar which then take out the entry bar (this time trader may consider reversing into short), the market usually has 1 more leg down. (after that, 20% bull reversal, 60% or more, you get a TR on the lower half day range)'' | **# ''the first reversal fails immediately at EMA and PB to entry bar which then take out the entry bar (this time trader may consider reversing into short), the market usually has 1 more leg down. (after that, 20% bull reversal, 60% or more, you get a TR on the lower half day range)'' | ||
**# ''the entry bar doesn't have good closes or the FT bar looks weak, traders need to be aware of possible [[SPBRT]].'' | **# ''the entry bar doesn't have good closes or the FT bar looks weak, traders need to be aware of possible [[SPBRT]].'' | ||
**# ''other minor details such as lacking of gaps, tick gaps, etc.'' | **# ''other minor details such as lacking of gaps, tick gaps, etc.'' | ||