26,858
个编辑
Category:ORV：修订间差异
无编辑摘要
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Opening Reversal. | Opening Reversal. | ||
* 80% of days, market test support or resistance in 1st 90 minutes, and the Reversal often becomes high or low of day. | * 80% of days, market test support or resistance in '''1st 90 minutes''', and the Reversal often becomes high or low of day. | ||
* 80% of days, the market opens have reversals (''Opening Reversal, indicating the end of the trend from the open''), which means Trend From The Open lasting all day Only 20% of day<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/181030-futuresio-Patterns-on-the-Open-Al-Brooks.pdf''</ref>. | * 80% of days, the market opens have reversals (''Opening Reversal, indicating the end of the trend from the open''), which means Trend From The Open lasting all day Only 20% of day<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/181030-futuresio-Patterns-on-the-Open-Al-Brooks.pdf''</ref>. | ||
* Generally, when there is a strong BO on the open, the market ''' | * Generally, when there is a strong BO on the open, the market '''reverse in 50% of days''', No Matter How Strong the initial BO looks like. | ||
** When the context is right, the chance of a successful reversal can increase to 60% or higher. For e.g. if the open has a selloff for around 18 bars, and market forms a possible consecutive parabolic wedge bottom, and there is a huge bear bar late in the bear trend, there is 60% chance of a successful bull reversal or | ** ''When the context is right, the chance of a successful reversal can increase to 60% or higher. For e.g. if the open has a selloff for around 18 bars, and market forms a possible consecutive parabolic wedge bottom, and there is a huge bear bar late in the bear trend, there is 60% chance of a successful bull reversal or one more leg down and then reversal. See example in [[Gap Up and Sell Climax, Then Reversal Up]]. Other factors that can '''increase''' the probability of a successful reversal:'' | ||
**# | **# ''yesterday was a bullish day'' | ||
**# | **# ''gap up on open'' | ||
**# | **# ''the sell climax from the open has big bars or consecutive sell climaxes, indicating more bears probably get exhausted'' | ||
**# | **# ''good looking entry bar and FT, especially when the reversal comes from major support levels, such as LoY, HoY, etc.'' | ||
**# PB of entry bar looks weak for the bears, some bears will sell the 1st reversal at EMA and the results will be a PB, PB '''can not''' take out the low of the entry bar | **# ''PB of entry bar looks weak for the bears, some bears will sell the 1st reversal at EMA and the results will be a PB, PB '''can not''' take out the low of the entry bar'' | ||
**# other minor details such as gaps, tick gaps, etc. | **# ''other minor details such as gaps, tick gaps, etc.'' | ||
** ''Factors that can '''decrease''' the probability of a successful reversal:'' | |||
**# ''the sell climax itself is a [[SPBRT]], which might indicate less exhausted bears, hence decrease the strength of bull reversal (if there is a reversal attempt).'' | |||
**# ''the first reversal fails immediately at EMA and PB to entry bar which then take out the entry bar (this time trader may consider reversing into short), the market usually has 1 more leg down. (after that, 20% bull reversal, 60% or more, you get a TR on the lower half day range)'' | |||
**# ''the entry bar doesn't have good closes or the FT bar looks weak, traders need to be aware of possible [[SPBRT]].'' | |||
**# ''other minor details such as lacking of gaps, tick gaps, etc.'' | |||