分类:GU

Gap Up. Gap up creates support, which is magnet^[1]. A lot of times when there's a gap the market simply goes sideways (half the time), 25% of the time it begins a bear trend, 25% of time to get a bull trend^[2]. When there is a Big Gap Up, it should be looked as a big BLBCH, i.e. a strong bull BO, hence, it increases the chance of a trend day, but the trend can be up or down (if down, it is a failed BLBO). Also, if yesterday ended with a big selloff and today has a BGU, the BGU needs to be looked as a BBLRVB.

In general, when there is BGU, odds favor bulls (but not much, only a little bit^[3]). The bulls want a double bottom or wedge bottom on a pullback to near the EMA, The bears want a double top or wedge top for an early high of the day.

• 85% chance of PB in first 2 hours.
• 80% chance of at least one reversal attempt in the first hour. (i.e. some kind of TR on the open).
• 75% chance trending TR day.
• 70% chance swing up after 1pm ET.
• 65% chance the gap will not close today.
• 60% chance of swing up in 1st hour.
• if instead it is going down, often pulls back 50% in wedge bear channel.

However, though the odds favor bulls after BGU when there is a big gap up, traders should expect following:

• Traders should expect trading range price action on the open and possibly sideways to down and test the moving average^[4]. For e.g. 20220309.
• [Often, traders want to buy around the moving average when the market gaps up, and the price action is not as strong on the open as today (market went sideways). When the price reverses just above the moving average, traders will expect to have to reach the moving average soon. (This caused traders to hesitate to buy around 8:00 AM PT when the market went sideways. 20220316)]
• If bulls able to get consecutive buy climaxes, [traders will expect that the consecutive buy climaxes would lead to a test of the moving average sometime during the day. (as it did with the three large consecutive bear bars around 9:00 PT. 20220316)], in anther words, [when you have a strong bull breakout on the open especially following a buy climax (such as 2+ especially big bull bars), the probability is not as high as it appears for the bulls getting a second leg up, because it increases the odds of the bulls becoming exhausted and the market going sideways to the moving average. Remember that on the open, there is a 50% probability that there will be a major reversal, such as what happened on bar 3(20220321)].
• [The bears know they will likely not be able to reverse the gap up, so they will try and damage the rally today as much as possible. One way would be to close today as a big bear bar]. e.g. 20220309
• [the day session may be small since the bulls may be exhausted]. e.g. 20220309

Worth to mention, if the gap UP is overly big, i.e. a huge gap, it increases chance of TRO that lasts a couple hours since it might take that long to get near MA. Generally, a big gap is a gap that is around the half of the daily range, a huge gap is a gap that is bigger than the daily range.