Ask Al: Final steps to trading profitability

詢問 Al：交易盈利的最後步驟

許多障礙對交易盈利有影響。

BPA trading room Q&A: February 16, 2016

Question: What were the final steps which you employed to become profitable?

Get rich quick trading!

There were so many steps along the way, right? The single biggest thing was giving up on everybody. Back when I was doing this in the 』80s, there were so many dishonest people out there. It was incredible. Pretty much any ad that you saw, I believe, was put there by a thief, a liar. Even in reputable magazines, all the ads about 「get rich quick,」 「buy this software,」 it was all lies. It was just totally all lies.

I grew up trusting people with more experience than me. I was an eye surgeon for years, and in medical school you’re being taught by people who are very reputable, very honorable. That’s true with most professional schools. Law school, business school. It doesn’t take much time to realize that the people are really honorable and they’re really trying to do a good job. They’re trying to be nice people, they’re trying to help you. So I grew up with that kind of experience. College, same thing. The professors were all good people, really interested in helping.

And then you enter the trading world, especially in the 』80s when I did. I immediately assumed that all the people out there are honorable like university professors, medical school professors, business school, and law school professors. But they’re not! They were all out there trying to steal money from people who didn’t know any better, by selling products that they make claims about and they charge a lot of money for their products.

賺錢快的交易！

問題：您採取了哪些最終步驟，以實現盈利？

一路走來有很多步驟，對吧？最重要的一件事是放棄所有人。當我在80年代做這件事時，有很多不誠實的人。這是不可思議的。我相信，幾乎你看到的任何廣告都是由一個小偷、一個騙子放在那裡的。即使在聲譽良好的雜誌上，所有關於「快速致富」、「購買此軟件」的廣告都是謊言。完全都是謊言。

我成長於信任比我更有經驗的人。我曾經是一名眼科醫生多年，在醫學院裡，你受到非常有聲望、非常有榮譽的人的教導。大多數專業學校都是這樣的。法學院、商學院。很快就會意識到這些人真的很有聲望，他們真的在努力做好工作。他們試圖成為好人，他們試圖幫助你。所以我成長於這樣的經歷中。大學也是一樣。教授們都是好人，真正有興趣幫助。

然後你進入交易世界，特別是在80年代，當時我進入了交易世界。我立刻認為所有人都像大學教授、醫學院教授、商學院和法學院教授一樣有聲望和榮譽。但他們不是！他們都在那裡試圖從不知道更好的人那裡偷錢，通過出售他們聲稱並為其產品收取高昂費用來偷錢。

Specialist indicator trading scams

I remember once, maybe it was 』87, 』88, there was some company out there I paid $3,000 for their special software that they guaranteed all kinds of great returns. Every day, they would send me the latest update of the input into their indicators. I don’t remember the name of the company, but I think eventually, the SCC sued them, put them out of business. I don’t know if they were arrested or put in jail, but the SCC ultimately decided that the firm was a lie.

And it was a lie. Every day they would optimize indicators based upon today’s price action, so if you used those indicators on what took place today, you would』ve made a lot of money. But you didn’t have those indicators at the start of the day; you got them at the end of the day. So every day at the end of the day, they』d say 「If you used these numbers today, you would』ve made $10,000. Here, you can use the numbers tomorrow.」

And guess what? The numbers don’t work tomorrow. They worked today because they were generated, they were curve fitted based upon today’s price action. And they were doing that every day. At the end of the day, they would come up with the numbers that would have worked best on the day, and then they would make the claim that had you used those numbers, you would』ve used a fortune today.

However, they were fitted to the market to maximize profit in hindsight, after you’d already seen the day. There’s no reason to believe that those numbers are going to work tomorrow. However, they would produce these track records based upon generating the numbers after they see the chart, and they were coming up with all kinds of incredibly great results. But that was the result.

專家指標交易騙局

我記得有一次，可能是87年、88年左右，有一家公司收了我3000美元買了他們保證能獲得巨額回報的特殊軟件。每天，他們會向我發送最新的指標輸入更新。我不記得公司的名字了，但我認為最終證券交易委員會起訴了他們，並將其關閉了業務。我不知道他們是否被逮捕或關進監獄，但最終證券交易委員會最終決定該公司是一個謊言。

而且它就是一個謊言。每天他們都會基於今天的價格行動優化指標，因此如果您在今天使用這些指標，您將賺很多錢。但你沒有這些指標在一天開始時；你在一天結束時得到它們。所以每天結束時，他們會說「如果你今天使用這些數字，你會賺10000美元。這裡，你可以明天使用數字。」

猜猜？數字明天不起作用。它們今天有效，因為它們基於今天的價格行動生成，並且每天都這樣做。在一天結束時，他們會提供最適合當天使用的數字，然後聲稱如果您使用了這些數字，則今天您將賺到財富。

然而，他們是利用事後的角度就市場情況進行了裝配，以最大化利潤。沒有理由相信那些數據明天也能管用。然而，他們會根據在看完圖表後生成的數字來製作這些記錄，並且他們得出了各種令人難以置信的結果。但那是結果。

Hiring a tutor (mentor)

I hired a tutor once, close to 30 years ago, and I paid him I don’t know how much, $3,000 or $5,000. He’s still out there today; I’ve seen him at conferences. I pressed him on a lot of things. I think I lost $3,000 when he was in my house trading. I pressed him on a lot of things, and ultimately he told me that he does not trade, but that he has people who trade his system, and trade his money for him. I couldn’t believe it. The guy is out there claiming to be a great trader, and doesn’t even trade.

I spent a lot of money in the early 』90s and the late 』80s hiring experts and going to conferences, and at the end, I concluded that it was all nonsense and the people were just dishonest people. They were just trying to take money from people who didn’t know any better. At the time, the law did not protect people as well as it does today. So it was very easy for dishonest people to steal money from people who didn’t know any better, people who were just trying to figure it out.

請一個教練

我曾經雇了一個家教，30年前左右，我付了他我不知道多少錢，3000美元或5000美元。他今天還在那裡，我在會議上見過他。我在很多事情上追問他。當他在我家交易時，我認為我虧了3000美元。我在很多事情上追問他，最終他告訴我他不交易，但是有人為他交易他的系統，並為他交易他的錢。我簡直無法相信。這個人宣稱自己是一個偉大的交易者，甚至沒有交易。

我在90年代初和80年代晚期花了很多錢雇用專家並參加會議，最終得出結論，這都是無稽之談，人們都是不誠實的人。他們只是試圖從那些不知道更好的人手中賺錢。當時，法律保護人們的能力沒有今天那麼好。所以對於那些不知道該怎麼做的人來說，不誠實的人很容易從他們那裡偷錢。

Figure out what market is doing

Anyway, after 10 years of it, I decided that, as trusting as I had been all my life of elders and people who I thought were out there to help me, I decided that the people are all liars, and they’re thieves, and dishonest people. Everything I was reading in magazines, and books, and ads, and seeing at conferences, was just all nonsense. Yes, pretty colors and pretty charts and pretty graphics and everything, but it’s all nonsense. It has nothing to do with making money.

So I got rid of all of it and I just decided to print out charts every day and try to understand. If the market has a bear bar, why does it have a bear bar? If it has a bull bar, why does it have a bull bar? If it has three bull bars, why does it have three bull bars? I just decided to try to figure out what the market was doing.

找出市場正在做什麼。

不管怎樣，經過了10年，我決定，雖然我一直相信長者和那些我認為會幫助我的人，但我決定，這些人都是騙子，是小偷，是不誠實的人。我在雜誌、書籍、廣告和會議上看到的一切都是無稽之談。是的，有很漂亮的顏色、漂亮的圖表和漂亮的圖形，但這些都是無稽之談。這與賺錢毫不相干。

所以我把所有這些東西都放棄了，只是決定每天打印出圖表來嘗試理解。如果市場出現了熊市行情，為什麼會出現這樣的熊市行情？如果市場出現了牛市行情，為什麼會出現這樣的牛市行情？如果市場出現了三隻牛的行情，為什麼會出現這樣的三隻牛的行情？我只是決定嘗試弄清楚市場在做什麼。

Focus on why you lose, and why you win

It didn’t take long to figure it out, because at times when I would lose money, I started to see that there were clear things that were happening that caused me to lose, like buying at the top of a trading range, selling at the bottom of a trading range, taking tops in strong bull breakouts, selling in this [B20-B30], buying this [B3], betting on regression to the mean, and that the breakout would fail. It did not take long for me to begin to see what signs of strength really are, and how important they are.

So if the market is going up and it looks pretty strong, I can only buy. If it’s going down and it looks pretty strong, I can only sell. You do it long enough, you look at a chart that you print out at the end of the day, and there’s something in the chart that you’ll see that the probability was high that you’d make money. So if you print this chart out, you’d see somewhere in here [B22 up], if I bought this reversal up that’s a lot of bars up, I’m going to make money. That’s all you have to see. You just need to buy somewhere in here [B20-B30], stop below there [B20], and you’ll probably make a measured move up.

Let’s say you decide somewhere in here [B29] that you’d make money. Let’s say you bought somewhere in here. At the point that you decide that you’ll probably make money, so probably when it’s 60%, your risk is here [below B20]. At that moment, you probably are going to make about the same amount that you’re risking to take the trade. So you’re probably going to get a measured move up from the place where you finally decided, yeah, the probability is high for the bulls.

And you can do that with pretty much any day. You can look at any day, and something’s going to happen that makes you think the market is going to do something. Something is going to happen that makes you think there’s going to be follow-through and probably a measured move.

專注於為什麼你輸了，以及為什麼你贏了。

很快我就了解到了，因為有時當我賠錢時，我開始看到明顯的事情導致我賠錢，比如在交易範圍的頂部買入，在交易範圍的底部賣出，押注均值回歸，認為突破會失敗。沒過多久，我就開始看到了真正的強勢信號以及它們的重要性。

所以，如果市場上漲並且看起來相當強勢，我只能買入。如果它下跌並且看起來相當強勢，我只能賣出。你要長時間地這樣做，看看你在一天結束時打印出來的圖表，你會在圖表中看到某些地方會有很高的獲利概率。所以如果你打印這張圖表，你會看到有些地方（B22之上），如果我買了這個反轉，它會上漲很多，我會賺錢。你只需要看到這些。你只需要在這裡（B20-B30）中的某個地方購買，止損在那裡（B20）以下，你就可能會有一個很好的上漲。

假設你在這裡（B29）決定可以賺錢。假設你在這裡買入。在你認為你可能會賺錢的時候，比如可能是60%，你的風險就在這裡（B20）以下。那時，你可能會賺到和你冒險交易相同的金額。所以，你可能會從你最終決定的地方得到一個很好的上漲，而且獲勝的概率很高。

你幾乎可以拿每一天來試試。你可以看看任何一天，總會發生一些事情讓你認為市場會出現動向。總會發生一些事情，讓你認為會有跟進，可能會有一個很好的上漲。 Al Brooks