交易手冊：基本面交易的愚昧

Source: The folly of trading fundamentals

So, who uses fundamental information when trading? It only can benefit investors, who hold positions for months at a time. Although you often hear traders on television mention fundamentals when they place trades lasting for a few days, they do not realize that they erroneously believe that the fundamentals improve their profitability. The fundamentals do not help traders make money, but traders often mention them because of tradition on Wall Street. They are afraid that their peers might respect them less for being purely technical traders.

誰在交易時使用基本面的信息？只有那些持倉數月的投資者才能從中受益。儘管你經常聽到電視上的交易員對於持倉數日的交易時提到基本面，但他們沒有意識到，他們錯誤地認為基本面可以提高他們的盈利能力。基本面不會幫助交易者賺錢，但交易者經常提到它們是因為在華爾街的傳統，他們擔心同行會因為他們純粹是技術交易者而失去尊重。

Never be ashamed to be a day trader

To me, this is foolish, just as it is foolish to be ashamed to be a day trader. When people ask me what I do for a living, I look at them straight in the eye and tell them I am a day trader, and my confident stare dares them to say something disrespectful.

Technical trading was disparaged for generations and is slowly being accepted as a very profitable way to trade. Most High Frequency Trading (HFT) firms use technical information exclusively, and many are making fortunes. This has gone a long way in making the Street and the public accept the proposition that technical trading can be profitable long term. However, HFT trading is done by computers, and there is still resistance to the idea that many traders can trade profitably manually using technicals alone.

永遠不要因為成為一名日內交易者而感到羞愧

對我來說，他們這樣的想法愚蠢至極，就像為成為日間交易員而感到羞恥一樣愚蠢。當人們問我做什麼為生時，我會直視着他們，告訴他們我是日間交易員，我自信的凝視促使他們不敢表現出不敬。

上幾代人都在貶低技術交易，現在慢慢被接受為一種非常有利潤的交易方式。大多數高頻交易公司僅使用技術信息，並且許多公司也因而賺了很多錢。這在使華爾街和公眾接受技術交易可以長期獲利方面已經取得了很大的進步。但是，高頻交易還是被電腦所操控，而且圈內未能完全接受交易員僅使用技術手動交易的想法。

Most traders get out within a few days

The reality is that almost all profitable traders who hold their positions for only a few days or less are making their decisions entirely based on price action, even though most do not realize it. They want to be seen as mainstream members of the Street, where all of the firms are still dominated by a fundamental mindset, and feel compelled to find a fundamental reason to support their trade.

Over time, this tendency will disappear and traders will feel free to admit to themselves and to their friends that they are getting rich from price action trading alone, and that fundamentals do not improve their profitability at all.

I am a day trader and am out of most trades within 15 minutes to an hour, and this means that fundamentals are totally useless for me. Fundamentals ultimately control the direction of any market over the course of months to years, but their impact on markets is far less clear than what the public believes.

大多數交易員在幾天內平倉

幾乎所有僅持有幾天或更短時間持倉的交易者都完全基於價格行為做出決策，雖然大多數人沒有意識到這一點。他們想被視為華爾街主流的一份子，而在華爾街使用基本面交易的風氣依然根深蒂固，所以這些公司因而感到有必要找到一個基本面的理由來支持他們的交易。

隨着時間的推移，這種風氣將會逐漸消失，交易者將可以大膽地承認他們從單純的價格行為交易中獲得了顯著的財富，而且基本面並沒有改善他們的盈利能力。

我是一名日內交易者，在15分鐘至1小時內就退出了大部分交易，這意味着基本面對我來說完全沒有用處。基本面最終控制任何市場在數月至數年的時間內的大方向，但它們對市場的影響遠不如公眾所認為的那樣明顯。

Fundamentals are useless to a trader

I strongly agree with Nobel Prize laureate, Bob Shiller, who says, 「The whole idea that the stock market reflects fundamentals is, I think, wrong. It really reflects psychology. The aggregate stock market reflects psychology more than fundamentals.」

If JPM is a better bank than a competitor, it is worth relatively more. In simplest terms, its stock will usually have a higher price per dollar of earnings. However, if the overall economy is falling apart, its P/E ratio will fall, meaning that its price will fall, even if its earnings are good. So, what should its price be? No one ever knows, but investors will likely pay more per dollar of earnings than they would for a bank of lesser quality. That is pretty much the extent of the impact of fundamentals, other than an occasional news event.

The fundamentals have nothing to do with the actual price of anything, only with the relative price, and even then, their effect is too non-specific to be of any value to a trader, who will hold a position for minutes to a few days.

基本面對交易者毫無用處。

我完全同意諾貝爾獎得主鮑勃·席勒的觀點：「『股市反映基本面』這一整個想法是錯誤的。它反映的是市場的心理狀態。總體上股市反映了心理狀態還是勝過於基本面。」

如果摩根大通比競爭對手更好，那麼摩根大通就有相對更高的價值。簡單來說，它的股票通常會有更高的市盈率。然而，如果整個經濟正在崩潰，它的市盈率將會下降，這意味着即使其收益良好，其價格也會下降。那麼它的價格應該是多少呢？沒有人知道，但比起質量較差的銀行，投資者很可能還是會為摩根大通買單。這就是基本面的影響，除了偶爾發生的新聞事件之外。

基本面與任何實際價格無關，只與相對價格有關。即使如此，它也對於一個持倉數分鐘到幾天的交易者沒有任何價值。

Price action is more reliable

I think that traders should never pay any attention to the fundamentals or the news because neither can fully be understood, whereas the price action is undeniable. That is, to traders who know how to read it. If more dollars want to buy, the price will increase and anyone can see it on the chart. It does not matter if the fundamentals, news, or experts on TV say it should go down. BUY!!!

This question comes up regularly, and my simplest answer is that I trade currency futures and Forex foreign exchange markets entirely on the basis of price action and have no interest in the fundamentals.

價格行為更可靠。

我認為交易者永遠不應該關注基本面或新聞，因為二者都無法被完全理解，而價格行為是不可否認的，至少對於知道如何詮釋價格行為的交易者來說確實是這樣的。如果更多的人想要入場，價格將會上漲，任何人都可以在圖表上看到它，即使基本面、新聞或電視上的專家說它應該下跌，你也不必在乎。你必須做的就是買入！！！

我常有人問我相似的問題，而我最簡單的答案是，我完全基於價格行為交易貨幣期貨和外匯市場，對基本面毫無興趣。

Trader or investor?

This is a good place to discuss the difference between a trader and an investor. A trader is looking for fast money. If he is a day trader, he is looking to exit within minutes to a few hours. If he is trading daily charts, he is looking to get out in a day to a week or so. How to trade as an investor? An investor is much more inclined to pay attention to fundamentals and is planning on holding a position for many months or even years. For example, he might buy GOOG because he thinks it has great management and a strong balance sheet.

Fundamentals ultimately control the direction of any market, but their effect is over the course of months, not days. Although you will hear traders talk about fundamentals, once you learn how to trade, you might come to agree with me that they are not important to a trader.

交易員還是投資者？

這是討論交易者和投資者之間差異的好機會。交易者尋求的是快錢。如果一個人是日間交易者，他在幾分鐘到幾小時內就會退出。如果一個人在交易日線圖，他會在一天到一周左右離場。作為投資者如何交易？投資者更加注重基本面，並計劃持倉多個月甚至幾年。例如，他可能購買GOOG是因為他認為它有很好的管理和強大的資產負債表。

最終還是基本面在控制任何市場的方向，但它們的影響是在幾個月而不是幾天內。雖然你會聽到交易者討論基本面，但一旦你學會了如何交易，你可能會認同我它們對交易者並不重要。

News can have a brief effect

There is an occasional news item that can move the market for a few days, but almost all moves less than a week in duration are based on price action. The market is constantly racing to support or resistance, where the market either breaks out or reverses. I believe that this is the concept that almost all profitable traders use to make their money, and you will probably agree as you learn more about how to trade online.

One more point about fundamentals. They are far less clear than what the pundits on television would like you to believe. The movement on the chart tells you how to trade. It tells you whether more money sees the news as bullish or bearish, and this is much more important than the analysis by either a bull or bear on TV. The market is usually extremely well-balanced between buyers and sellers, resulting in almost constant confusion, and therefore a very small edge for even the best traders.

新聞可能只會產生短暫的影響。

有時會有一些新聞報道推動市場數日，但幾乎所有持續少於一周的波動都是基於價格行為的。市場不斷地往支撐或阻力位衝刺，市場要麼突破要麼反轉。我認為這是幾乎所有盈利交易者用來賺錢的概念，隨着你對如何進行交易的了解增加，你可能會開始同意這一點。

關於基本面的另一個要點是，它們並不像電視上的專家們所希望的那樣清晰。圖表上的波動告訴你如何交易，它告訴你更多的資金是認為某新聞會導致市場看漲還是看跌，這比電視上的多頭或空頭分析還更重要。市場通常在買家和賣家之間極度平衡，導致持續不斷的混淆，因此即使是最好的交易者也只有非常小的優勢。

Perfect trades cannot exist

Have you ever waited for that perfect trade? If you did, you are probably still waiting because what you soon discover is that no setup is quite good enough. There is an institutional buyer and an institutional seller at every tick on every chart. One side believes the market if going up and the other thinks it will go down.

Except during the 10% of the time when the market is breaking out strongly, the market is very balanced between the bulls and the bears. When CNBC puts on that bullish analyst, it is easy to conclude that the market has to go up. Well, a bear sold to that bull, and he is probably every bit as smart as the bull, yet you only get to hear one side. You have to remember that there is always an opposite side, and that is why there is a market. Both sides need each other to achieve their goals of either buying or selling.

完美的交易不存在

你曾經等待過完美的交易機會嗎？如果是，那你可能仍在等待，因為你很快會發現沒有任何一個形勢足以滿足所有條件。每張圖上的每個點都有來自機構的多頭與空頭：其中一方認為市場會上漲，而另一方則認為它會下跌。

除了在10％的時候市場處於強勁突破，其餘的時候市場在看跌和看漲之間都非常平衡。當CNBC播放那些看漲的分析時，很容易得出結論市場必須上漲。然而，有個賣方賣給了這個買家，他可能和買家一樣聰明，但你只能聽到一面。你需要記住這裡總有相反的一方，這也就是為什麼市場可以存在的原因。雙方都需要彼此才能實現他們買或賣的目標。

Fundamentals are complex

Also, the fundamentals are far more complex than what television portrays, and most institutions know them before they make the news. They are already factored into the current price and you are deluded if you think that you or any pundit on TV can predict the movement over the next few days because of some profound insight into the fundamentals. If it is important, the institutions have already entered and you are entering late. They are already placing trades based on tomorrows news!

Also, if the Yen currency futures or Forex is falling, it is too simplistic to say that it is because of Japan printing money. That might be a big part of the reason, at least initially, but many institutional traders around the world are placing trades based on many other fundamental reasons that are impossible for you to ever know.

Saudi Arabia might own a lot of Yen, but now thinks that the US economy is becoming strong. They might sell their Yen to buy American stocks. A bank in Europe might sell much of the Yen it might be holding because it has to pay a huge fine to the government, and the fine has to be paid in Euros. Many of the new shorts are simply momentum traders who are selling because the trend is down, and they have no interest in the reason why the Yen is falling. I believe that worrying about fundamentals is not how to trade.

基本面是複雜的。

此外，基本面遠比電視所描繪的要更複雜，大多數機構在新聞發布前就已經掌握了它們，它們已經與當前價格被納入了考量之中。如果你認為你或電視上的任何專家可以通過對基本面的深刻洞察而預測未來幾天的市場走勢，那你就是被蒙蔽了。如果它很重要，機構早就已經進入市場了，而你則是進入得太晚。他們早已經根據明天的新聞來進行交易了！

此外，如果日元貨幣期貨或外匯下跌，如果說這是因為日本印刷了貨幣，是個過於草率的解釋。那可能是原因中的一大部分，至少最初是這樣，但全球許多交易機構根據很多不可能為你所知的基本面原因進行交易。

沙特阿拉伯可能擁有大量日元，但現在大家都認為美國經濟正在蓬勃發展，他們可能會出售日元購買美國股票。歐洲的一家銀行可能會出售它持有的大部分日元，因為該行必須向政府支付巨額罰款，而該罰款必須用歐元支付。許多新的空頭只是動量交易者根據市場趨勢而做空，他們並不關心日元下跌的原因。我認為過分擔心基本面並不是進行交易的正確方式。

Nobody believes that traders make money from fundamentals

In 2012, CNBC had a television show called Money in Motion and it dealt with Forex foreign exchange online trading. They discussed every trade in terms of both the fundamentals and technical analysis (the price action), but only placed trades in the direction of the trend and almost always at support or resistance. Most of the trades were pullback entries with a reward of about twice the risk.

In my Brooks Trading Course videos, I discuss the mathematics of why most traders should only take trades where the reward it at least twice the risk, so regardless of the fundamentals, they were recommending reasonable price action trades and mathematically sound trade management.

These television traders would make some professorial comment about their profound understanding of the fundamentals, but it was total nonsense. What they argued was similar to what traders say when they trade with lots of indicators.

For example, a trader might say, 「There is a stochastics divergence and therefore I am buying.」 Strong trends have an endless stream of divergences and profitable traders would never bet on a reversal based on an indicator alone. In fact, I believe that all profitable traders trade mostly, if not exclusively, based on price action, even though many argue that they are also basing their decisions additionally on fundamentals or indicators.

If you listen carefully to what they are saying, they invariably tell you that they will not take the trade unless the price action supports what they are doing, and every trade is in the direction of the trend, and based on support or resistance. They then force their discussion of the fundamentals to fit what they are going to do regardless of the fundamentals, and their trading is really based entirely on the price action. This means that the fundamentals are entirely irrelevant to what they are doing. The same is true of indicators. Successful traders will only trade if the price action makes sense, regardless of what indicators or fundamentals show.

Are the Forex markets special in some way, like so many ads for Forex brokerage accounts make it appear? Not at all. Simply look at the three charts in the previous section and ask yourself if can tell which is the EURUSD. I am certain that you cannot, and therefore you will see that the price action in all markets is the same.

I mention in the course that I believe that charts are genetically based since each is simply a representation of human behavior. If you become skilled at reading what the charts are telling you, you will have an edge, which you need to trade profitably. I do not believe that fundamentals give a trader any edge at all.

沒有人相信交易員從基本面上賺錢。

2012年，CNBC有一檔叫做Money in Motion的電視節目，主要涉及外匯交易。他們會討論每一筆交易的基本面和技術面（價格行為），但只會在趨勢上漲時進行交易，幾乎總是在支撐位或阻力位進場，而大多數交易都是回撤進場，回報風險比約為2:1。在我的Brooks Trading Course 視頻教程中，我講解了大多數交易者為什麼應該只進行回報至少兩倍於風險的交易。因此，無論基本面如何，他們都是在推薦合理的價格行為交易和數學上合理的交易管理方法。這些電視交易員可能會發表一些關於他們對基本面的深刻理解的專業意見，但這完全是無稽之談。他們的論點類似於交易者在使用許多指標進行交易時所說的話。

例如，一個交易者可能會說：「出現隨機震盪背離（Stochastics Divergence），因此我要加倉。」強勁的趨勢有無盡的背離，可以持續盈利的交易者永遠不會僅僅根據指標來進行反轉。事實上，我認為所有可以持續盈利的交易者，即使許多人認為他們也基於基本面或指標等進行決策，但他們大部分交易仍是基於價格行為。

如果你仔細聽他們說的話，你會發現他們無一例外地在告訴你，除非價格行為支持他們正在做的事情，否則他們不會進場，而且每一筆交易都是在趨勢方向上進行的，並基於支撐或阻力位。然後他們會硬拗他們的基本面理論，以迎合他們無論基本面如何都必需要做的事情，而他們的交易基本上還是完全基於價格行為。這意味着基本面與他們所做的事情完全無關，而指標也是一樣。成功的交易者只會在價格行為合理的情況下進行交易，而不管指標或基本面顯示什麼。

外匯市場是否有某種特殊之處，就像許多外匯券商的廣告所顯示的那樣？完全沒有。只要看看前一節中的三張圖表，問問自己能否告訴哪一個是歐元/美元，我相信你做不到這一點，因此你會理解所有市場的價格行為都是一樣的。

我在課程中也提到，我認為圖表上的價格行為是遺傳基因決定的，因為每個圖表都只是人類行為的一種表現形式。如果你在詮釋圖表這方面技能嫻熟，你就會有優勢，這是你持續盈利所需要的，我並不認為基本面會給交易者帶來任何有利的優勢。

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