交易手冊：使用指標進行交易的必然愚蠢
Source：The surefire folly of trading with Technical Analysis Indicators
Whenever a trader begins his quest to learn how to make money, he naturally looks for information. Ads and websites are reasonable resources. He will invariably find many that are extremely professional and showcase lots of technical analysis indicators. He then concludes that complicated computer screens with lots of quote screens and charts filled with indicators are an inescapable necessity.
However, if he instead listens to professional traders on television, he never hears anything about indicators. Instead, he only hears about the market testing its old highs or a trend line. How could these traders ever be making money without all of those indicators? Because most profitable traders have a relatively simple approach. And, it is almost always based on reading price action. They look for support and resistance and watch how the market responds when it gets there.
每當一個交易者開始他學習如何賺錢的任務時，他自然會尋找信息。廣告和網站是合理的資源。他總會找到許多非常專業的資源，並展示出大量的技術分析指標。然後他得出結論：複雜的電腦屏幕上充滿了行情和圖表指標，這是不可避免的必要條件。
然而，如果他反而聽取電視上的專業交易員的建議，他從來不會聽到任何有關指標的東西。相反，他只會聽到市場測試其過去的高點或趨勢線的說法。這些交易員怎麼可能在沒有那些指標的情況下獲利呢？因為大多數盈利交易員有一個相對簡單的方法。而且，幾乎總是基於讀取價格行動。他們尋找支撐位和阻力位，並觀察市場在到達這些位置時的反應情況。
The importance of support and resistance
During a strong bull breakout, they simply buy at the market and hold until the market gets to resistance, where they take partial or full profits. During a strong bear breakout, they take profits at support.
Beginners are naturally afraid and are looking for protection. They look to gurus and indicators, hoping that these gods will protective them from trading death and lead them to nirvana. What they soon learn is that they still lose money, even when they do exactly what their false gods tell them to do.
How can that be? The experts on television look rich and must be great traders. The technical analysis indicators in the ads must surely be what the professionals use. What they do not realize is that trading is much simpler and the key to success comes from within. Traders simply have to spend a lot of time learning how to find support and resistance and how to structure and manage trades. Everything else is a lie.
支持和阻力的重要性
在強勢牛市突破時，他們只是在市場上買入並持有，直到市場達到阻力位時，他們會部分或全部盈利了結。而在在強勢熊市突破時，他們會在支撐位獲利。
初學者自然會感到恐懼，並尋求保護。他們寄希望於行情大師和指標，希望這些"神明"能保護他們免受交易失敗的困擾，並帶領他們走向天堂。但他們很快會發現，即使照著這些"神明"說的做，他們仍然會虧錢。
這是怎麼回事呢？電視上的專家看起來很富有，一定是很厲害的交易員。廣告中的技術分析指標一定是專業交易員所用的。他們沒有意識到，交易其實更簡單，成功的關鍵來自內在。交易者只需要花大量的時間學習如何尋找支撐和阻力，以及如何構建和管理交易。其他一切都是謊言。
Do not get addicted to technical analysis indicators
I have never met any successful trader who makes his trading decisions based on lots of charts covered with technical analysis indicators. I believe that the exact opposite is true. Indicators are all derived from price. If you can read price action, why add all of those indicators that only obscure the charts and give you the false hope that they will somehow help you trade better? You are simply trying to find a crutch that you hope will support you until you finally become profitable.
Successful traders take responsibility for their decisions. They do not look for a powerful outside force like a mystical indicator or a trading guru to guide them to financial heaven.
不要沉迷於技術分析指標
我從未見過憑藉大量覆蓋著技術分析指標圖表做交易決策的成功交易者。我相信恰恰相反。指標都是由價格派生出來的。如果你能讀懂價格走勢，為什麼要添加那麼多只會模糊圖表並給你虛假希望的指標呢？你只是試圖找到一個拐杖，希望它能在你最終變得盈利之前支撐著你。
成功的交易者對自己的決策負責。他們不會尋找一個強大的外部力量，比如神秘的指標或交易專家，來引導他們走向財富之路。
Indicators are a bad crutch
Look at the two charts below. The first one looks like it could be in an ad. Lots of colorful indicators, but they make it very difficult to see what you are actually trying to trade. That is the price!
The second one is the same chart, but without indicators except for a 20 bar exponential moving average. Even that is not necessary to trade profitably. I use it because it acts as support and resistance and therefore provides several trades that might not otherwise be evident. This simple chart is how I look at charts when I trade, and most successful traders use something similar.
指標是不可靠的
看下面的兩張圖表。第一張看起來像是廣告。有很多彩色指標，但它們使得你真正想要交易的內容非常難以看清。那就是價格！
第二張圖表是相同的，但除了一個20根指數移動平均線之外沒有其他指標。即使沒有這個指標，也可以盈利進行交易。我使用它是因為它作為支撐和阻力，並且提供了一些可能不明顯的交易機會。這張簡單的圖表是我進行交易時所看的，大多數成功的交易者也會使用類似的方法。
The EURUSD 60 minute Forex chart is lost among the indicators.
Ads and websites want you to believe that you can get rich if you trade a chart that has lots of indicators. More information, more money
EURUSD 60分鐘的外匯圖表在指標之間迷失了。↵↵廣告和網站希望讓你相信，如果你交易一個有很多指標的圖表，你可以變得富有。更多的信息，更多的錢。
This is the same chart with only a 20 bar exponential moving average. This is how price action traders trade. Don’t hide all of this great information behind lots of indicators! 這是同一個圖表，只有20根指數移動平均線。這就是價格行為交易者的交易方式。不要將所有這些重要信息隱藏在大量的指標後面！
Experts focus on price action
Some traders might use tick or volume charts, or one or two indicators, but they all make most of their decisions based on price action. They want to buy at support and sell at resistance.
The best traders are extremely good at understanding the many forms that support and resistance take and how tests look when they are likely to be successful. The stronger the buying pressure (I will discuss this in a later article), the more likely the market will go up. This is true whether it has pulled back to support or rallied to resistance. The stronger the selling pressure, the more likely it will go down.
專業交易員專注於價格走勢
一些交易員可能會使用刻度或成交量圖表，或者一個或兩個指標，但他們大多數的決策都是基於價格走勢。他們想要在支撐位買入，在阻力位賣出。
最好的交易員非常擅長理解支撐位和阻力位的多種形式，以及當它們可能成功時的測試樣貌。購買壓力越強（我將在後續文章中討論此），市場上漲的可能性越大。無論是回撤至支撐位還是上漲至阻力位，這都是真實的。賣出壓力越大，下跌的可能性就越大。
Price is truth
Look at the two charts above and decide which one is more likely going to lead to a profitable trade. One has lots of technical analysis indicators that make the chart extremely difficult to read. Beginners gravitate to charts like that because they are afraid of price. Also, they get constant messages from websites and magazine ads that implicitly tell them that adding lots of indicators will give them the edge needed to beat the other guy.
They know that price is truth and that they cannot yet make money. Hiding the price action is a way of denying the truth, as you will discover as you learn how to trade.
Price action traders prefer the second chart. The signals are clear, but it takes a long time to develop the skill to read the chart as it unfolds and then manage the trade appropriately. There is nothing magical. Learning how to trade successfully is actually quite boring most of the time, but I personally find the waiting to be very peaceful.
價格就是真相
看一下上面的兩個圖表，然後決定哪一個更有可能導致盈利交易。一個有很多技術分析指標，使圖表非常難讀。初學者傾向於使用這樣的圖表，因為他們害怕價格。此外，他們會不斷收到來自網站和雜誌廣告的信息，這些信息暗示他們添加很多指標將為他們提供擊敗其他人的優勢。
他們知道價格就是真相，而他們還不能賺錢。隱藏價格行為是一種否認真相的方式，當您學習如何交易時，您將會發現這一點。
價格行動交易者更喜歡第二個圖表。信號是清晰的，但要培養閱讀圖表並適當管理交易的技巧需要很長時間。沒有什麼神奇的。成功交易的學習實際上大部分時間都很無聊，但我個人覺得等待是非常平靜的。