交易手冊：價格行為與蠟燭圖

https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/how-to-trade-manual/candlestick-charts/

價格行為與蠟燭圖

Most successful traders use candlestick charts to make their money. In addition, they trade primarily or exclusively using price action. Although there is no universally accepted definition of price action, I use the broadest one. I say that it is simply any move up or down on any chart for any market.

The smallest move that any market makes is one tick (one pip for the Forex markets, although pips are now often subdivided into tenths, which most traders ignore). If a market moves up one tick, it is because there are not enough sellers at the current price to fill all of the buy orders. The market has to go higher to find more sellers. If it falls one tick, it means that it is in search of a price low enough so that there will be enough buyers to take the other side of the bears.

日本蠟燭圖受非常多成功的交易者的青睞，他們使用其進行交易，並與價格行為相配合。由於"價格行為"沒有一個受到大眾一致認同的定義，在這裏我們就使用被大家所最廣泛接受的定義。簡單地說，價格行為就是任何市場、任何圖表上價格的上漲或下跌。

任何市場能夠做出的最小波動是一個tick（對於外匯市場是一個pip，雖然pip現在通常被細分為十分之一，但大多數交易者忽略這些）。如果市場上漲了一個tick，那是因為當前價格的賣家不足以填補所有的買單。市場必須走得更高才能找到更多的賣家。反之，如果它下跌一個tick，那就意味着它正在尋找足夠低的價格，以便有足夠的買家來接受賣盤。

Keep focused on the goal of making money

As a day trader, I don’t think about anything other than whether the market will go up far enough for me to make a profit if I buy or fall far enough to make a profit if I short. I make several assumptions that allow me to not worry about anything other than price action. It is impossible for me to know if my assumptions are true, but they are consistent with the price action. If I later conclude that I am wrong, I will then change my assumptions.

I have watched and traded a 5 minute candlestick chart during 99% of every day for over 30 years. However, I also make some trades based on the 60 minute, daily, weekly, and monthly charts. I use options most of the time when I trade those higher time frames. But, I use the same price action techniques that I do when I trade 5 minute charts.

始終專注於一個目標——賺錢

我作為一名日內交易者，我只關心市場是否能夠上漲到足以讓我在買入時獲利或者下跌到足以讓我在賣出時獲利。我做了一些假設，使我只需要關注價格行為而不擔心其他事情。我無法確定這些假設是否正確，但它們與價格行為一致。如果我後來發現自己錯了，我就會改變我的假設。

我觀察和交易5分鐘K線圖已經超過30年了，幾乎每天99%的時間都在觀察和交易。然而，我也會根據60分鐘、日線、周線和月線圖表做一些交易，在交易這些較高的時間框架時，我大多數時候會使用期權，但是，我使用的價格行為技巧和我交易5分鐘K線圖時一樣。

The lure of candlestick chart patterns

When you look at websites that offer advice on trading, they glorify candlestick patterns and all kinds of rules with Japanese names. However, when you watch professional traders on television, you will notice something entirely different. They virtually totally ignore candlestick patterns. In addition, they often buy at the bottom of a strong bear candle or candle pattern and sell at the top of a very bullish pattern.

Why is that? Because they want to make money. If candlestick patterns were anywhere near as good as many trading websites make them appear, they would quickly stop working. This is because no institution would take the other side of the trade.

If a pattern is good for you, then it is bad for the guy taking the other side, and institutions cannot stay in business if they consistently lose. The only logical conclusion is that most of what you read about candlestick patterns is nonsense. The institutions control the market. They ignore all of what is on those helpful 「Trading Made Simple」 candlestick websites.

誘惑人們的蠟燭圖形態

當你瀏覽那些充滿各種交易建議的網站時，會發現他們把蠟燭圖形態和所有帶有日語名字的規則捧得高高在上，但是，當你看電視上的專業交易員時，你會發現他們完全不同，他們幾乎完全忽略蠟燭圖形態，此外，他們經常在一根代表強勁賣壓的K線或一個賣出蠟燭圖形態底部買入，並在一根代表強勁買壓的買入信號K線頂部賣出。

為什麼會這樣呢？因為他們想要賺錢。如果蠟燭圖形態像許多交易網站所描述的那樣好用，那麼它們很快就會失效，這是因為沒有機構願意站在交易的另一邊。

如果一個形態對你有利，那麼對於另一方^{（交易對手方）}而言就是不利的，如果機構一直輸錢，他們就無法維持自身業務。唯一的合理結論是，大部分關於蠟燭圖形態的描述都是無意義的。機構控制市場。他們忽略了所有那些所謂的「交易簡單化」蠟燭圖形態網站上的內容。

Setups and Signals

Much of what you read about candle bar signals implies that knowing a collection of candlestick patterns is 90% of what is required to learn how to trade online. It is not. A setup is composed of two things, a signal and context. Without both, you should not take a trade.

By context, I mean all of the bars to the left have to be supportive of your trade. A perfect candlestick pattern in the middle of a tight trading range will consistently lose money. You need other reasons for taking the trade, like the market being at a confluence of support or resistance. I discuss this in detail in the course.

形態與信號

在很多有關蠟燭圖的文章中，很多人會誤以為了解一系列的蠟燭圖形態就可以掌握網上交易的90%技能，但事實並非如此。一個完美的蠟燭圖形態出現在一個狹窄的交易區間中時，卻往往會導致交易虧損。因為一個完美的交易形態由兩個要素組成，即入場信號以及當時的形勢。兩者缺一不可，缺少任何一方都不應該進行交易。

所謂「形勢」，指的是你交易的圖表左側所有K線的運行趨勢都支持你的交易方向。在窄幅交易區間中出現的完美蠟燭圖形態，卻依然會導致你虧損的。為什麼呢？其原因很簡單：你沒有考慮到當時的形勢是一個窄幅的區間。你還需要其他的理由來進行交易，比如市場正在處於支撐或阻力的交匯處，我在課程中詳細討論了這一點。

Tight Trading Range, limit order market, bad for scalping with stop orders. Most traders should wait. Usually the bars are small and tends to reverse every 2 or 3 bars, but sometime the bars can be big, however if they still reverse every 2 or 3 bars, bad for stop entry traders, making it essentially still TTR, for e.g. the TR open on 20221115.. 窄幅震盪。 ➟ More about TTR