阿布答疑：外匯交易
Al回答了一系列外匯交易問題，涵蓋了外匯和Emini之間的區別以及更多內容。Al還討論了創建獨立的外匯交易課程的理由。 Al replies to a number of Forex trading questions, covering the differences between Forex and the Emini, and much more. Al also discusses the rationale for creating a separate Forex trading course.
外匯課程
正如你所知，我正在重新製作整個課程，而且有足夠多的人要求一個外匯課程，所以我決定繼續做下去。所以現在，我同時在做Emini課程，這也基本上和股票、原油和黃金的課程一樣——它們都交易得非常相似——而且對於外匯市場來說也差不多一樣，但是外匯市場有足夠多的小細節讓我決定——還有，很多交易者只想看外匯圖表；他們不想看Emini圖表或原油圖表。所以我正在製作一個平行的課程：外匯交易。而且很多圖表都是一樣的；有很多圖表我沒有顯示價格或時間軸；我只是試著顯示柱形圖案。所以有很多圖表和Emini課程和外匯課程是一樣的，但是有足夠的差異讓我覺得值得有一個外匯課程。
As you know, I’m redoing the entire course, and there have been enough requests for a Forex course that I decided that I would go ahead and do that. So right now, I’m working on both the Emini course, which is also basically the same course as for stocks and crude oil, and gold — they trade all very similarly — and it’s also pretty much the same for Forex markets as well, but there are enough little subtleties about the Forex markets that I decided — also, a lot of traders only want to see Forex charts; they don’t want to see Emini charts or crude oil charts. So I’m making a parallel course: Forex Trading. And a lot of the charts are the same; there’s a lot of the charts I don’t show price or time axes; I’m just trying to show bar patterns. So there are a lot of charts that are the same to the Emini course and the Forex course, but there are enough differences to make it, I think, worthwhile to have a Forex course.
Q: 外匯市場和Emini之間的價格行為有顯著的差異嗎？
沒有，但是有一些差異，而且差異足夠大，以至於如果你是一個外匯交易者，你可能更喜歡有一個完全關於外匯交易的課程，這就是為什麼我在做它。
Q: 對於特殊技能，你需要什麼特殊技能來交易外匯嗎？
不需要。它基本上和交易原油、股票、Emini一樣，但是有一些小差別。
問：我的課程計劃是什麼？
顯然，我想幫助交易者賺錢，希望這門課程能幫助交易者賺錢。例如，在歐元兌美元的許多交易日中，交易區間很小，只有50個點或30個點，如果你要交易外匯市場，你必須進行短線交易才能賺錢。但是，外匯市場真的是非常適合限價單的市場。
很多外匯交易日看起來就像這個圖表，非常好。你可以在低點買入，逐步加倉並進行短線交易。但有時候，你會看到大的突破，它們可能會在更高的時間框架上產生大的突破，比如12月3日，歐元兌美元出現了巨大的多頭逆轉，當時我說「60%的概率我們會得到第二個上漲」，但當天的情況非常激烈，可能要等一個月左右才會開始第二個上漲。但在那一天，買入非常容易。即使在今天的歐元兌美元，我們也有小幅回調的多頭趨勢。此外，歐元買家的背景非常好。這是五分鐘圖表。你可以看到你需要買入。如果你要交易，你必須買入。60分鐘圖表，出現了三次下跌——現在我們有三個陽線高收，可能會有人在下方買入並稍微上漲。240分鐘圖表，你可以看到楔形。迄今為止沒有一個非常好的信號K線，但它看起來可能會反彈。相當緊密的通道TCH，因此——像這樣，可能是一個MRV輕微的逆轉。
每當我看到這樣的逆轉——我之前談到過這個——看向左邊。有一個缺口嗎？這個條形圖與那個條形圖重疊了一個點，所以有一個缺口，我們可能必須到達這個MM等距目標，然後才能反彈。但我確實認為，無論是否先進一步下跌，我們都會回到那個缺口。
如果你看這個圖表，對我來說它看起來與Emini圖表完全相同，可以用相同的方式進行交易。相同的人在交易；高盛，所有大銀行，所有大基金。他們都在交易外匯市場。外匯市場是巨大的。事實上，它比股票市場還大。高盛並不害怕交易外匯市場，因為他們在與專門從事外匯交易的公司交易。絕不是這樣。高盛將毫不猶豫地交易外匯市場。
Q: Are there significant price action differences between the Forex market and the Emini?
No, but there are some differences and there are differences enough so that if you’re a Forex trader, you might prefer having a course that is entirely about Forex trading, and that’s why I’m doing it.
Q: For special skills, do you need any special skills to trade Forex?
No. It’s basically the same as trading crude oil, the same as trading stocks, the same as trading Emini, but there are a bunch of little differences.
Q: What was my plan with the course?
Obviously, I want to help traders make money, and I’m hoping that the course helps traders make money. A lot of days in the Euro versus the dollar, for example, in the days there’s sideways and small, 50 pip ranges, 30 pip ranges for most of the day, and you have to scalp to make money if you’re going to be trading the Forex markets. But — and the Forex markets are really good limit order markets.<.p>
A lot of Forex days look just like this, and they’re really good. You buy lows, you scale in higher, and you scalp. But other times, you get big breakouts and they can create big breakouts on higher time frame, 60-minute chart, like December 3rd we had that huge bull reversal in the Euro versus the dollar, and at the time I said 「60 percent chance we would get a second leg up」. But, the day was so climactic that we may go sideways for a month before that second leg up began. But during that day, it was very easy to buy. Even today in the Euro, we had a small pullback bull trend. Plus, the context is really good for buyers of the Euro right now. This is the five-minute chart. You see that you got to buy. If you’re going to be trading it, you got to buy. And 60-minute chart, three pushes down — now we got three bull bars closing near their highs, probably buyers below and a little bit more up. 240-minute chart; you can see the wedge. Not a very good entry bar so far, but it looks like it could bounce. Pretty tight channel, so — like this, probably a minor reversal.
Any time I see a reversal up like this — I talked about this earlier — look to the left. Is there a gap? And this bar overlaps that bar by one pip, so there is a gap and we may have to get down to this measured move projection before we rally. But I do think we’re going to get back up to that gap, whether or not we go down further first.
If you look at this chart, to me it looks identical to an Emini chart where you trade it the same. The same people are trading; Goldman Sachs, all the big banks, all the big funds. They’re trading Forex markets. The Forex market is huge. It’s, in fact, bigger than the stock market. And it’s not as if Goldman Sachs is afraid to trade Forex because they’re trading against firms that are dedicated to Forex trading. Not at all. Goldman Sachs will not hesitate to trade Forex markets.
一個重要的區別
我認為外匯交易和Emini交易之間有一個重要的區別，那就是外匯市場有更多的白痴——更多的專家是白痴。還有一檔節目——我忘記叫什麼了，在CNBC上講外匯交易的，現在已經停播了。它停播的原因是前提是錯誤的。每個交易者都會看圖表，試圖在支撐位或阻力位買入，如果他們在買入，他們會說：「哦，基本面非常看漲。」或者如果他們在賣出，他們會說：「哦，基本面非常看跌。」然後他們會談論不同國家的央行以及各種基本面的胡言亂語——你知道的，中國經濟疲軟或澳大利亞有貴金屬問題，或者誰知道，挪威——原油價格正在下跌。這純屬胡說八道。那些以這種方式交易的人我認為是傻瓜，我真的不相信他們在賺錢。我當然不相信他們用這種邏輯賺錢。
我認為，如果他們是基於支撐和阻力進行交易的，他們是在賺錢的，而他們確實都是這樣做的。但是其他關於「哦，原油價格正在下跌，因此挪威克朗將貶值，澳大利亞元和加元都將受到打擊」的胡言亂語。這完全是無稽之談，對吧？機構已經知道所有這些了。
作為一個交易者，你只關心「有沒有突破？突破是否強勁？突破是否會逆轉？我們是否處於重要的支撐位？我們是否處於更高時間框架上的支撐或阻力位？市場在支撐和阻力位上的表現如何？」這和其他市場一樣。市場基於邏輯運作。你可能不理解這個邏輯，但所有市場都基於邏輯運作。並不是外匯市場、黃金市場、股票市場都有不同的邏輯。不，它們都是理性人行為的代表，因此它們都會有相同數量的價格行為。
An important difference
There’s one, I think, important difference between Forex trading and Emini trading, and that’s that there are more idiots in the Forex market — more experts who are idiots. And there was a show — I forgot the name of it, 「Money in Motion」 or something on CNBC about Forex trading, and it went off the air. And the reason it went off the air is because the premise was flawed. Every trader looked at a chart and they were trying to buy at support or buy at resistance, and if they were buying they would say, 「Oh, the fundamentals are really bullish.」 Or if they’re selling, they』d say, 「Oh, the fundamentals are really bearish.」 And they』d be talking about central banks in different countries and all kinds of fundamental nonsense — you know, China is weak or Australia is having problems with precious metals, or who knows what, Norway — the crude oil price is going down. It’s just nonsense. It’s just total nonsense. And people who are trading thinking that way I think are fools, and I really do not believe they are making money. I certainly do not believe they are making money with the logic that they’re saying.
I do think they are making money if they’re trading based upon support and resistance, which they all are. But the other nonsense about, 「Oh, crude oil’s going down, therefore the Norwegian Kroner is going to fall in value, the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar are all going to get hurt.」 And it’s total nonsense, right? The institutions already know all that.
As a trader, all you care about is 「Are there breakouts? Are the breakouts strong? Are the breakouts going to reverse? Are we at significant support? Are we at support or resistance on a higher time frame? What is the market doing at the support and resistance?」 It’s the same as any other market. Markets function based upon logic. You may not understand the logic, but all markets function on logic. And it’s not as if the Forex market on gold market, stock market all have different logic. No, they’re all representations of rational human behavior, so they’re all going to have the same amount of price action.
其他外匯市場的差異
外匯市場的區別之一是它們不受監管。 另一個區別是，沒有交易所。因此，圖表上的最後價格--TradeStation上的歐元對美元的最後價格將與Interactive Brokers上的價格不同。 這可能是一兩個點的差異。 它與其他經紀商的價格不同，因為這個經紀商使用TradeStation的數據，他們以一家銀行為基礎，而這家銀行在5分鐘內的最後一筆交易可能與其他經紀商使用的銀行的最後一筆交易價格不一樣，所以圖表不是絕對相同的。 價格是有一定差異的。
另外，圖表本身--它不是真實的交易。 在TradeStation，我相信他們使用的是買入價格，而不是最後的價格。 因此，例如，這個價格你認為，"哦，那是最後一次交易"。 不，它不是。 那是最後的買入價。 每個價格都有一個買入價和一個賣出價，由於圖表是根據買入價和賣出價製作的，而不是最後的價格，有時我們得到一個填補，我們說，"等一下，它從未達到我的價格。 它怎麼會被填補？" 這是因為它確實達到了你的價格。 圖表不是基於實際的交易；它是基於出價和要價。 如果最後一筆交易沒有達到出價，或者沒有達到要價，圖表就不能代表價格。 有時，你會在一個條形圖的高點以下的價格被填滿，或者在這裡被填滿，或者在這裡被填滿，你會說，"它從未到達那裡。 它怎麼會被填滿？" 這是因為你有一個基於出價的圖表，或者也許可以有基於要價的圖表。 你可以用TradeStation和很多經紀商的方式來做。 因此，圖表並不那麼準確。
Other Forex market differences
One of the differences with Forex markets is that they’re not regulated. Another difference is that there are no exchanges. So the last price on a chart — this last price on the Euro versus the dollar on TradeStation is going to be different from the price on Interactive Brokers. It might be a pip or two difference. And it’s different on the price from any other broker because this broker uses TradeStation data, they’re basing it upon one bank, and the last trade during this five-minute interval for that bank may not be at an identical price as the last trade at a bank that another broker uses, so the charts are not absolutely identical. The prices are somewhat different.
Also, the chart itself — it’s not real trades. In TradeStation, I believe they use bid prices, not last prices. So for example, this price you think, 「Oh, that’s the last trade.」 No, it’s not. That’s the last bid price. Every price has a bid and an ask, and because charts are made on bid and asks and not last prices, sometimes we get a fill in and we say, 「Wait a minute, it never reached my price. How did it get filled?」 It’s because it did reach your price. The chart is not based upon actual trades; it’s based upon bids and asks. If the last trade did not reach the bid or it did not reach the ask, the chart is not going to be representative of the price. Sometimes, you’ll get filled on a price below the high of a bar, or up here, or it might get filled down here and you say, 「It never got there. How did it get filled?」 It’s because you have a chart that’s based upon the bid or maybe can have it based on ask. You can do it either way with TradeStation and with a lot of brokers. So charts are not as accurate.
那麼為什麼要交易Emini？
那麼，為什麼我要交易Emini而不是外匯市場呢？我一直在交易外匯市場，但為什麼我更多地交易Emini呢？這是因為最小頭寸。對我來說，在外匯市場上最小的頭寸是10個pips，如果你交易少於10個pips，要想穩定地賺錢就很困難。圖表並不完全準確。你有買入/賣出價差，你有佣金，所有這些都使得如果你交易少於10個pips，要想賺錢就很困難。那麼，為什麼這很重要呢？如果我的最小交易是在外匯市場上的10個pips，我一天可以做多少個10個pips的交易呢？總的來說，外匯市場的波動幅度小於Emini市場，所以僅僅因為這個原因，要想賺10個pips的機會就比在Emini市場上賺一個點的機會少。因此，Emini市場每天的波動範圍足夠大，讓我可以看到大約40個一點的交易和大約20個兩點的交易。在外匯市場上，一般來說，平均一天可能只有10個一點的交易，而不是40個。因此，在Emini市場上有更多的交易機會。
另一方面，外匯市場每天24小時交易。基本上有三個交易時段——亞洲、歐洲和美國——因此你可以在任何時候進行交易，無論是白天還是晚上。你也可以在任何時候交易Emini，但經常在紐約證券交易所關閉後市場就會變得很安靜，但外匯市場不是這樣的。因此，如果你住在亞洲，想交易Emini，如果你真的想得到良好的波動，你必須在晚上交易。如果你住在歐洲，你可以毫不費力地交易德國DAX指數期貨，你可以交易歐洲債券，你可以交易任何歐洲股票指數期貨，但你可能不會交易Emini。你可能不會交易恒生指數期貨。但如果你交易外匯市場，無論你在地球上的哪個地方，你幾乎可以24小時交易。會有一些交易時段之間的小間隙，兩三個小時的交易範圍很窄，但總的來說，我們有交易的優勢，可以在一天的任何時間、世界的任何地方進行交易。
因此，當我去亞洲時，如果我在香港交易，我會在晚上10點左右交易，一直交易到早上4點左右，這很困難。保持清醒很困難；保持警覺很困難。但如果我在香港交易外匯市場，我可以在白天交易。這更符合我的生物節律。
So why trade the Emini?
Now, why do I trade the Emini compared to Forex markets? I trade the Forex markets all the time, but why do I trade the Emini so much more? Well, because of minimums. For me, the minimum scalp in the Forex market is 10 pips, and it’s hard to consistently make money if you’re trading less than 10 pips. The charts are not entirely accurate. You have bid/ask spreads; you have commissions, and all of that make it difficult to make money if you’re trading for less than 10 pips. Now, why is that important? Well, if my minimum trade is 10 pips on the Forex market, how many 10 pip trades can I get in a day? Forex markets, in general, move less than the Emini, so, on that basis alone there would be less opportunities to make 10 pips than there are if you make a one-point scalp in the Emini. So on the Emini every day, the range is big enough for me to see about 40 one-point scalp trades and about 20 two-point scalp trades. In the Forex market on an average day, instead of 40 one-point scalps there might be 10 one-point scalps. So there are far more trades available on the Emini.
On the other hand, the Forex market trades 24 hours a day. There’s basically a set of three sessions — Asia, and then Europe, and then the United States — so you can be trading any time, day or night. And you can trade the Emini any time, day or night, but so often it’s quiet after the New York Stock Exchange closes, but that’s not true of the Forex market. So if you live in Asia and you want to trade the Emini, you have to be trading at night if you really want to get good movement. If you live in Europe, you can trade the DAX no problem, you can trade European bonds, you can trade any European stock index future, but you probably will not trade the Emini. You probably will not trade the Hang Seng. But if you trade the Forex markets, pretty much no matter where you are in the planet, you can trade pretty much 24 hours a day. There are little gaps between the sessions, two or three hours of tight trading ranges, but for the most part we have the advantage of being able to trade any time of the day, any part of the world, and trade during the day.
So when I go to Asia, if I’m in Hong Kong and I’m trading, I’m trading at 10 o』clock at night until 4 o』clock in the morning or so, and that’s harder to do. It’s hard to stay awake; it’s hard to stay alert. But if I’m trading Forex markets in Hong Kong, I can trade during the day. It coincides more with my biorhythm.
外匯頭寸調整
外匯市場的另一個優勢——一個很大的優勢是你可以調整你的頭寸大小。在Emini中，有一個最小的頭寸大小，基本上現在是10萬美元。如果Emini在2000美元左右，每點50美元，基本上每個Emini合約控制著10萬美元的股票。外匯市場的標準頭寸大小是10萬單位，一般來說，它和Emini差不多大，但是外匯市場你可以交易小一點。你可以交易5萬單位；你可以交易1萬單位；你可以交易5000單位。所以如果你剛開始，外匯市場提供了一個很大的優勢。你在學習如何交易時可以少虧錢。你可以交易非常小。你可以交易1萬單位。你可能會說，「阿爾，如果我用1萬單位做所有這些小規模的交易，賺10美元」，沒錯。但是當你虧錢時，也只虧10美元，這給了你很多練習的機會。你可以練習一年或兩年，也不會真正損失太多錢，所以這也是一個很大的優勢。
另外，在外匯市場中，人們通常不會提到跳點（ticks），而是談論點數（pips），這基本上是一回事。我的意思是它就是一回事。所以每次上下移動都是一個點數（pip）。而股票和Emini、原油、黃金——每次上下移動都是一個跳點（tick）。最後，在外匯市場中，我經常會在60分鐘圖或2小時圖或4小時圖上進行交易——有時候在日線圖或周線圖上進行交易。我在Emini中做得比較少，在外匯市場中我更願意持有隔夜倉位，部分原因是我是個日內交易者。我一天要做20、30、有時40筆交易，在外匯市場中——我看到60分鐘圖和2小時、4小時圖、日線圖上有很多形態，並且我可以調整我的頭寸大小，並且止損非常可靠，並且我覺得自己不會陷入麻煩。隔夜時我什麼都不擔心。我不擔心出現大幅缺口開盤價。我感覺非常舒服。
Forex position sizing
Another advantage of the Forex markets — one of the big advantage is you can adjust your position size. In the Emini, there is a minimum position size and basically $100,000 right now. If the Emini’s around $2,000 and it’s $50 a point, basically each Emini contract is controlling $100,000 worth of stock. The standard position size in the Forex market’s 100,000 units, in general, it’s about the same size as the Emini, but with Forex markets you can trade small. You can trade 50,000 units; you can trade 10,000 units; you can trade 5,000 units. So if you’re starting out, Forex markets offer a really big advantage. You can lose a lot less while learning how to trade. You can trade really small. You can trade 10,000 units. You can say, 「Well Al, if I take all these scalps of 10,000 units and make $10,」 right, it’s true. But when you lose, you lose $10, and that gives you the ability to get a lot of practice. You can practice for a year or two and not really lose all that much money, so that’s another big advantage.
Also, Forex markets, instead of referring to ticks, people talk about pips, which is basically the same thing. I mean, it is the same thing. So each little move up or down is a pip. Whereas stocks and Emini, crude oil, gold — every little move up or down is a tick. And then finally with the Forex markets, a lot of times I’ll take trades on the 60-minute chart or the two-hour chart or the four-hour chart — sometimes the daily chart or the weekly chart. I do that much less in the Emini, and I’m much more willing to hold positions overnight in the Forex markets, in part because I’m a day trader. I take 20, 30, sometimes 40 trades in a day, and Forex markets — I see a lot of patterns on the 60-minute chart and the two-hour, four-hour chart, daily chart, and I can adjust my position size, and the stops are very reliable, and I’m comfortable not getting in trouble. Overnight, I don’t worry about anything. I don’t worry about big gap openings. I feel really comfortable.
持倉過夜
如果你交易的是一個更高的時間框架圖表，並且持有一天、兩天、三天或者過夜的倉位——這很好——如果我不是在五分鐘圖上進行日內交易，我也會對Emini持有過夜的倉位感到舒服。但是由於我一整天都在看著五分鐘圖，在五分鐘圖上進行全天的交易，我會覆蓋我在60分鐘圖上做出的任何交易決定。所以如果我在60分鐘圖上做空，然後我在五分鐘圖上看到這樣的情況，我就會買回我的空頭。所以對我來說，很難——不可能——在同時積極地交易五分鐘圖的情況下，去交易60分鐘圖或者兩小時圖、四小時圖，因為我會在五分鐘圖上看到與我的60分鐘倉位相反的走勢，而當我知道市場正在反向運行，並且我可以以更好的價格出場和再次進場時候，繼續持有60分鐘倉位對我來說沒有意義。
外匯市場，如果我有一個60分鐘的交易，並且要持有過夜，通常我會在晚上把訂單放在市場上，很多時候我會在半夜獲得利潤。當早晨醒來時候，就會說：「哇哦！今天已經賺到了我的目標」，因為一筆過夜外匯交易。但是對於Emini來說，我不願意這樣做。
Holding positions overnight
If you’re trading a higher time frame chart and holding position a day, two, three days, overnight — which is nice — I would be comfortable doing that with the Emini as well if I were not day trading the five-minute chart. But since I’m here watching it all day long on the five-minute chart trading all day on the five-minute chart, I would override any decisions that I was making on a trade on the 60-minute chart. So if I short the 60-minute chart and I start seeing this on the five-minute chart, I’m going to buy back my short. So it’s really hard for me to — it’s impossible for me to trade the 60-minute chart or the two-hour chart, four-hour chart if I’m also actively trading the five-minute chart because I’ll see moves on the five-minute chart that are opposite to my position on the 60-minute chart, and that does not make sense to me to hold the 60-minute position when I know the market’s going against me and I could get out and get back in at a better price.
Forex markets, if I have a 60-minute trade on that I’m holding overnight, usually I get out — I have orders placed in the market at night, and a lot of times I’ll get my profit in the middle of the night. I’ll wake up and I’ll say, 「Wow, I’ve already made my nut for the day,」 because of an overnight Forex trade. But I’m not willing to do that with the Emini.
以外匯為生
無論如何，我在外匯課程中講了所有這些東西，我確實認為交易者可以專門交易外匯市場來謀生。我也認為他們可以交易五分鐘圖，並且做得很好，儘管我認為由於買賣價差和圖表不太可靠的問題，我認為大多數交易者最好還是看看60分鐘圖、一小時或兩小時圖、四小時圖、日線圖。然而，如果你一整天都在觀察，五分鐘圖上也有很多好的交易機會。例如，我們開始看到這個並說「等一下，回調都很小。它們只有一根一根的。Al稱之為小回調牛市。我們要漲了」，所以你就隨便買任何理由的任何點位，把止損放在這裡，然後看它能漲多遠。每天，在外匯市場上都有這樣的事情發生，所以我真的認為一個日內交易者可以做得很好。然而，正如我所說，在平均情況下，在外匯市場上有更少的日內交易——比Emini少得多。當然更少的短線。
好吧，我沒力氣了，但是我只是試著解釋一下我繼續進行外匯課程的理由，並且希望外匯交易者覺得它非常有用。我相當有信心他們會這樣認為。好吧，希望大家晚安。
Trading Forex for a living
Anyway, I talk about all of this stuff in the Forex course, and I do think traders can trade the Forex markets exclusively for a living. I do think they can trade the five-minute chart and do it as well, although I think because of the issues with bid-ask spreads and the charts not being as reliable, I think most traders are better off looking to trade 60-minute charts, one or two-hour charts, four-hour charts, daily charts. However, if you’re watching all day long, there are a lot of good trading opportunities on the five-minute charts as well. For example, we start seeing this and say 「Wait a minute, the pullbacks are all really small. They’re only one bar one. Al calls this a small pullback bull trend. We’re going higher,」 so you just buy for any reason at any point, put a stop down here, and just see how far it goes. And every day, there are things like that in the Forex markets, so I really do think a day trader can do very well. However, as I said, there are fewer day trades, I think, in the Forex market on average — far fewer than there are in the Emini. Certainly far fewer scalps.
Okay, I’m out of energy, but I’m just trying to explain my rationale for going ahead with the Forex course, and I’m hoping that Forex traders find it really useful. I’m pretty confident that they will. All right, hope that everybody has a good night.