Ask Al: Make money following Al Brooks?

交易室問答：二月29日2016年。

問題：我現在交易還難以盈利。如果我只學你的交易，那麼在我自己的能力得到提升之前，我是否能夠通過交易謀生呢？

Question: I’m still struggling to make money. If I just follow your trade suggestions, will I be able to make a living until I get good?

不要跟任何人的單

建議不要聽任何人的話可能會導致昂貴的錯誤。除非你已經聽完了我已講過的所有課。例如在14很可能是一個擺動做多位，止盈至少4點。

但是很多時候，我一整天都在刮頭皮。32 上方做空，37上方做空。我不會告訴你所有我做單的細節，哪裏設置止損，哪裏加倉，什麼時候提前止損。

Do not follow anyone

I would strongly recommend not listening to me or not listening to anyone.  I think that’s a really costly mistake because, unless — at some point once I finish all the course and all the other projects I’ve got going on, I probably will talk more — you heard me say 14 is probably a swing buy, good for at least four points, stuff like that.  That’s okay because it’s clear:  You buy above 14, you put a stop below 14, and you place a limit order to get out four points higher.  So that’s pretty good.

But a lot of times, I’m just taking little scalps all day long — selling above 32; selling above 37. Through here I did several little trades in here.  And I’m not telling you all the details.  I’m not saying, 「Oh, I’m putting a stop here and I’m not going to let the stop get hit.  I’m going to scale in in this particular case.」  I’m not saying any of that.

我浪費錢的經歷

我記得許多年前，我花了3000美金從一個公司購買交易信號。還訂閱了各種專家的分析，諮詢熱線。但最後發現錢都打水漂了。

如果你在電視上某個"專家"說：「黃金價格要漲」，或者「原油價格要跌」，或者「股市要漲」，你無法從中獲利，因為你經常聽到我說：約有10%的時候你只能買進或只能賣出。而剩下90%的時間，如果你正確地管理你的交易，你可以在任何時候買進或賣出並獲利。因此，上圖這種10%的情況，你只有做空才能賺錢。但是有90%的K線在圖表上都是區間震盪，所以做空做多都可以盈利。

上圖的盤面我們有幾個不錯的擺動交易信號，超過的10%的K線都在突破。在另一些的區間交易日，只要你的止損夠寬，配合上加倉，最終也能盈利。

Wasting money

I remember years ago — I forget the name of the company; maybe it was Essex Trading — I paid them $3,000 for formulas.  I used to subscribe to all kinds of guru newsletters and hotlines, and a lot of it is just a total waste of money, right?

If you see some clown on television saying, 「Gold is going up,」 or 「Crude oil is going down,」 or 「The stock market is going up,」 you cannot make money off of that because you hear me say this pretty regularly:  About 10 percent of the time you can only make money buying or only make money selling.  90 percent of the time, you can buy or sell at any point and make money, if you manage your trade correctly.  So 10 percent of the bars on the chart, the market’s doing this, you can only make money if you sell. But 90 percent of the bars on the chart the market’s doing this and you can make money buying or selling at any time.

You know, today we had pretty good swings here and here, so maybe more than 10 percent is breakout.  On a typical day, it’s like this — you can buy at any point; you can sell at any point if you use a wide enough stop, and scale in and manage your trade correctly.

授人以漁

受人以魚，不如受人以漁，在交易中也是如此。在你完全能夠承擔交易中全部責任之前，謀生確實很困難。特別是如果你剛開始，賬戶不夠大，很容易說：「哦天哪，我真的很絕望，我必須通過這個賺錢。我花了很多時間存下這些錢。」這些擔憂會讓你難以兩頭兼顧。在我看來，非常想掙錢的這些情緒，會讓你的更加難在交易中成功。

Teach a man to fish (trade)

So, I would not worry too much about what I say or about what anybody else says.  You sometimes hear the adage, 「You teach a man to fish.  You don’t give him a fish,」 and that’s true with trading, right? Until you’re completely comfortable taking full responsibility, it’s really hard to make a living.  And everyone — especially if you’re starting out and your account is not big, it’s easier to say, 「Oh my gosh, I am really desperate.  I got to make money doing this.  It took me so much time to save up this money. I don’t want to lose my other job while I start this job」. There’s just a lot of personal issues involved, and I can tell you that I believe it’s extremely difficult to make money, if you have to make money.

急於掙錢

越急於掙錢，就越難越掙，因為你覺得再不掙到生活就要完了。你會犯錯，而且你只會擔心風險，但交易有三個變量——風險、回報和概率。一個急於賺錢的人只看到了一個變量：風險。「我承受不起損失」，對吧？一點點虧損，兩點點虧損，「我必須退出」，對吧？即使市場可能需要一個比當前止損點高五個點的止損點。你要在58收盤做空，然後說：「我只能承受一兩個點的風險」，然後價格開始上漲，你就平倉了，對吧？如果你58收盤做空，那麼你的止損點就在那裏，就是這樣，對吧？如果你買入了17收盤價，你的止損點可能在這裏，我認為更接近這裏。所以，如果你做這筆交易，你的止損點就在那裏。

Desperate to make money

If you’re really desperate to make money, it’s really hard to make money because you’re going to be miserable. You’re going to make mistakes, and you’re going be only worried about risk, and there are three variables — risk, reward, and probability.  A person who’s desperate to make money only sees one variable:  Risk.  「I can’t afford to lose,」 right?  One point, two points, 「I — I got to get out,」 right?  Even though the market might call for a stop that’s five points above. So you sell the 58 close and you say, 「I can only risk a point or two,」 and then it starts to go up here and you get out, right?  If you take – if you’re selling the 58 close, your stop is up there, period.  That’s it, right?  If you’re buying the 17 close, your stop may be down here.  I think more around here.  So that’s it; so if you take that trade, that’s where your stop is.

只思考窄止損

如果一個人只考慮風險，他們會說，「我知道Al說止損應該放在那裏，但是也許我會買17收盤買入，期望市場繼續上漲，然後我會放一個一點的止損。」 然後你在18止損了。你做了一個非常聰明的交易；你的方向買對了，但你管理不當，因為你只看到了風險，你不想虧超過一點。

Thinking risk only

And if a person’s only thinking about risk, they’re saying, 「Well, I know that’s where Al says that’s where the stop goes, but maybe I’ll buy the 17 close and take a chance that it will just go straight up and I’ll put a one-point stop in.」 Then you get stopped on 18, and you lost money buying.  You made a really smart trade; you know, you bought the market that’s probably going up, but you managed it wrong because all you saw was risk and you did not want to lose more than a point.

說太多也會影響我自己交易

回到你剛才的問題我認為，除非別人把它放所有的交易細節都告訴你，否則聽別人說的做是不可能賺錢的。為什麼我不能把細節都說出來呢，因為我一天要進行太多交易了，如果我要把思考如何設止損，縮窄止損，臨時決定刮頭皮等決策等，還要兼顧講話，這樣太難了，這對我來說要付出太多了。

比如，你看今天的14，17，可以在上方掛單，止損就放在14，17下方，賺取4個點。在27下方做空，止損在27上方，期待價格跌倒24或25低位附近離場。雖然我可以把這些細節全部說出來，但很多時候我。。。。？

Talking costs money

But going back to your question. I think it’s really impossible to make money listening to somebody else unless they’re saying every little thing that they’re doing. And I — I can’t do it because I take so many trades during the day, and if I’m talking as I’m trying to make a decision about 「Do I move the stop here?  Do I get out there?  Do I just get out with just two ticks?  Do I try to hold for two points?」 you know, I cannot do both.  It will cost me too much money.

Sometimes, you get bars like 14 or even 27 that, you can just say, you buy above 14, stop above low 14, and hold for 4 points. Or you sell below 27, stop above 27, and you get out at the 24 or 25 low. Those things you can say because you said the whole package; you said where the stop is, you said where the limit order is, you said where the entry is.  But most of the trades I take during the day, that’s not what I’m trying to do; I’m trying to get out with one point or two points.

小止損高回報

有時候我會做一些技巧性交易，在這些交易中，存在一些不尋常的情況，其中風險並不是很大，但回報很大。或者實際風險小，初始風險大的交易。我使用寬止損，但是我絕對不會讓我的寬止損觸發。就實際風險而言，實際風險很小，而回報很大。不知道我這樣是否回答了你的問題，但我真的認為依靠祈求上天來保證我們不虧錢是不現實的，我們需要依靠這些策略。你需要的是實踐，必須在你開始感到自信能夠做到之前積累很多經驗。依賴別人手把手帶着你做，這樣做是行不通的。

Small risk, big reward

Sometimes I’ll take finesse trades where there’s some unusual situation where the risk is really not all that big and the reward is big. Or the actual risk is not big, the initial risk is big. I’m using a wide stop, but I’m never going to let the stop be hit.  In terms of actual risk, the actual risk is small and the reward is big. So I don’t know.  I hope I’m answering your question, but I really think looking for a God or savior to protect you, so that you don’t lose money is not going do it. That’s not what you need.  What you need is practice and you got to get a lot of trades under your belt before you start feeling comfortable that you can do this. And depending on someone else to hold your hand as you do it, that’s just not going to work.

只依靠建倉形態是不夠的

我曾經請過一個交易教練。這個人，我偶爾還會在電視上看到他。我覺得他完全是個騙子，25年前我花了3000美元請他來一天。那天他就坐在我旁邊，我就這樣虧了3000美元。我給他付了3000美元，我輸了3000美元。我開始追問他：「你現在和我在一起，不在交易。你每天會去教學嗎？你會交易多少天？」最後他說他從來沒有交易過，所以他現在教別人如何交易，卻不是一個真正的交易者。這個人是騙子，因為他自己不交易。我當時非常絕望，願意付出任何代價請人教我如何做交易。但是即使那天他教我了1-2個技巧，那還是遠遠不夠的，因為這一點點技巧很可能第二天就不適用了。做一筆交易只看建倉形態是遠遠不夠的。

Not just about setups

I remember I once hired a tutor. The guy, I still see him out there, every now and then, at the shows.  I think he’s a total fraud, but he’s still out there and 25 years ago I paid him, like, $3,000 to come in for the day. And I lost $3,000 with him sitting by my side that day.  So I paid him $3,000, I lost $3,000.  And I started pressing him, 「You’re here with me.  You’re not trading.  How many days do you go out and teach?  How many days do you trade?」  Anyway, what it came down to was he says he never trades, and so here he is teaching people how to trade and he’s not a trader.  The guy, he was a fraud.  The guy’s a fraud.  He’s not in the game. I was desperate, willing to pay anything to get somebody to show me how to do it. But even if he showed me one or two things that day, that still would not have been enough because those two things would not be there tomorrow, or the next day, or the next day.  There’s a lot more to a trade than just setups.

使用正確的止損或止盈

大家經常聽我說 ，大多數情況下，如果你使用正確的止損和止盈目標，做空做多都可以賺錢。當市場處於這種狀態時，這是顯而易見的，對吧？（區間震盪）。你可以在任何K線下方做多，任何K線上方做空，直接刮頭皮下去。很多時候你懂得這樣做，這不需要聽別人說，阿布說在這裏多，這裏空。」止損點也總是很明顯，對吧？所以如果你在這裏的任何地方賣出，你的止損就在上面。突破之後，如果你在下面的任何地方賣出，你的止損就在上面。

Use correct stop and targets

In fact, you hear me regularly say — I’ve already said it a few minutes ago: most of the time, if you use a correct stop and a profit target, you can make money buying or selling.  It’s obvious when the market is like this, right?  You can buy or sell. You can buy below anything, sell above anything, and just keep scalping. But most of the time you can do that so you don’t need someone to say, 「Oh Al, buy this,」 or 「Al, Al, sell that.」  And the stops are always obvious as well, right?  So if you’re buying anywhere in here, your stop is down here.  If you’re selling anywhere in here, your stop is up there.  After this breakout, if you’re selling anywhere below here, your stop is up here.

開始

所以，任何開始的人，他們都知道止損點在大多數情況下，如果市場呈趨勢，他們看到它在上漲，他們知道止損點在哪裏，對嗎？所以當你買入時，你設置止損點，然後你等到它不再上漲。在這裏，你知道它正在下跌，所以你可以隨時以任何理由賣出。===您將止損設在此處，並在價格不再上漲時買回——可能高於 60，更有可能高於 71。

但這只是對交易的簡單看法，並不需要擔心有人會告訴你「Al，移動我的止損。Al，移動你的利潤目標。」 當你看圖表時，你會知道止損在哪裏，對吧？現在，如果市場正在上漲，你知道你應該買入。如果市場正在下跌，你知道你應該賣出，也知道止損位於哪裏。如果你要執行交易，那就該這樣做。當市場上漲時，你就買進，並設置止損，然後繼續持倉。

Starting out

So, any person starting out, they know where the stop is For the most part if the market’s trending, they see it’s going up and they know where the stop is, right?  So when you buy, you put your stop, and then you wait until it’s not going up anymore here.  Here, you know it’s going down, so you sell for any reason at any time. You put your stop up here, and buy back when it’s no longer going up — maybe above 60, maybe more likely above 71.

But that’s pretty much the simplistic view of the trade, right, and not worry that somebody’s going to show me, tell me, 「Al, move my stop.  Al, move your profit target.」  When you look at the chart, you know where the stop is, right?  Now, if the market’s going up, you know you have to buy.  If the market’s going down, you know you have to sell, and you know where the stop is.  And if you’re going to take the trade, that’s what you do. When the market’s going up, you just buy and you put your stop there and just hold on.

加倉

如果你能夠分批入場，那就更好了。所以你買進後會在更低的位置繼續買入，如果價格下跌，那就更好。我不會在這個位置買進。我認為這裏的風險太高了，可能是價格的頂部。在這裏，我們可能會下跌。我們止損於那個高點。理論上，如果你在這裏任何一個位置賣出，比如說你在12美元之上沒有出場，那麼你的止損就會在這裏，然後你會在看到賣盤之後立刻買入更多。

在這個位置向上交易，就是在買進。這是一個「收盤買入」的例子，但你可能會失望。你必須在這裏出場。但是如果你在下行途中賣出，賣在這裏，或者在那兒賣，對吧？止損點在這裏，你一直持有直到價格不再下跌。可能在62美元之上出場，甚至可能在60美元之上出場。

– excuse me, 63 – above 64, 66.

Scaling in

It’s much better if you can scale in, so you buy and you scale in lower, right, if it goes down, that’s good.  I would not buy up here.  I think there’s too much risk of that being the end.  Here, we’re probably going down.  We stop at that high.  Theoretically, if you sold anywhere down here — let’s say you did not get out above 12, which you should have, right, your stop is up here and you look to scale in as soon as you get a bear bar to sell more.

Trading up through here and you’re buying. This is an example of one of those Buy The Close bars, and you get disappointed You got to get out here.  But if you sell on the way down, sell here, sell there, right?  Stop goes up here, and you just hold on until it’s no longer going down.  Get out above 62, maybe get out above 60? – excuse me, 63 – above 64, 66.

交易真的很簡單！

交易並不像想像中那麼複雜。我的建議是，如果我告訴你止損點在某個位置，而你認為這個位置風險太大，那麼就不要做這筆交易。但如果你決定要做，那麼就設置好止損點。如果你能認真考慮交易並設定正確的止損點，你就有可能賺到錢。即使你冒一定的風險，但也不應該讓風險大於你的收益。如果你能交易足夠小的倉位，不害怕止損，然後再設置合理的止損，也會簡單許多。

Trading is easy, really!

Trading is really not that complicated and I think traders learn — if you just listen to me during the day, I’m telling you the stop goes here, and you say, 「Well, I don’t want to risk that much.」  Well, don’t take the trade, but if you’re going to take the trade, that’s where the stop goes.  And if at the end of the day you sit down and listen to what I’m saying, you’ll say, 「Hey, wait a minute, what Al said made sense.  You know, if I did buy there and if I did put that stop there or if I did sell there and I did put that stop there, I would have made money.」  I have to risk more than I wanted to risk, but I would have made money.  So if you can trade small enough, you can do it.  It’s much easier to make money if you can trade small, and use the correct stops, and not worry about losing.

復盤

我說太多了，嗓子都說啞了。好吧，我希望大家晚安。這次賣盤高潮我認為也是個衰竭信號，這是一個巨大的賣盤高潮。我認為，儘管從日線圖上看，今天是熊市的一個相當不錯的進場機會，但我仍認為這將是一個兩三天的回調，而在三月的第一二周，我們會站在這個價格以上。但是我認為在那裏會有賣盤。很多多頭都在關注這個市場，他們正在賣出，但是其中一些多頭正在使用高位止損，認為我們可能會上漲一點。我仍然認為我們的勝算是會超過周五的高點。但即使我們沒有超過上周五的高點，我也不會感到驚訝。我相信仍然有可能上漲一次。這次上漲也許會形成一個楔形或者看熊期，一次推動、兩次推動、回落，然後再三次推動。大概會持續到至兩、三周。

大概就這些，祝各位晚安。

End of day review

Anyway, I’m talking too much and I’m losing my voice.  Okay, I hope everybody has a good night.  This is I think an exhaustive sell climax.  This is huge. I think, even though on the daily chart today is a pretty good entry bar for the bears, I still think it’s going to be a two or three-day pullback, and that in March, in the first week or two, we’ll get above here. But I think there’ll be sellers up there.  A lot of bulls are looking at this and they’re selling, but some of those bulls are using stops way, way up here thinking that we may go up a little higher.  I still think the odds are we’re going to go above Friday’s high. But I would not be surprised if we did not, but I still think we’ll get one more push up. And that will probably be it, maybe a wedge, bear flag, one push, two pushes, pullback, and then three pushes. Two or three weeks from now, and that will probably be it.

Okay, hope everybody has a good night.

Al Brooks

阿布