今天最高概率的交易是什麼？
Question 1 of 3: What is the highest probability trade today?

Video duration: 6min 04sec

高概率不是一切 High probability – not the whole story

這是一個非常有趣的問題，因為它關乎了一個變量——概率，並忽略了另外兩個變量——風險和回報。對我來說，最高概率的交易是第62根K線。當這根K線出現時，我說：「交易員都在這裡買入，而我也在買，所以它會上漲」，對吧？因此62是最高概率的交易，但這並不意味着它是最容易的交易。它只是意味着我們從62那裡達到等距測量目標的概率很高，可能有70%的概率，但風險取決於你在哪裡買入。如果你在收盤價買入，你的風險可能是12個點數左右。它的回報至少和風險一樣大，但由於概率是60%或70%，這是一筆很好的交易，所以這就是最高概率的交易。

Now, that is a very interesting question, okay, because it addresses one variable — probability — and it ignores two others — risk and reward. To me, the highest probability trade was the one that I said. When bar 62 was happening, I said, 「Traders are buying,」 you know, 「I’m buying, it’s going up,」 right? So 62 is the highest probability trade, but that does not mean it’s the easiest trade. It just means the probability that we’re going to get some kind of a measured move out of 62 is very high, probably 70 percent. But the risk is big depending on where you bought. If you bought the close, you’re risking, whatever, 12 points or so. The reward is at least as big, but with the probability 60 or 70 percent, it’s a great trade. So that is the highest probability trade.

毫無情緒的交易員？Brain dead trader?

此外，我認為當你剛開始學習交易時，這是一筆很難執行的交易。當市場一路下跌，你心裡想着：「天哪，它要跌破一月份的低點了」，而它突然反轉上漲，這對初學者來說真的很困難——你其實只需變得機械化且不受情緒地行動，這就是我怎麼做到的。當市場上漲到62時，我不會想：「這不可能發生，這發生得太快了，風險太大，我最好等待回調。」不，我會說：「就按下按鈕，直接以市價單買入。」市場顯然是上漲的，而且上漲得非常快。這對所有的多頭和空頭都是個大驚喜，它正在上漲得更高，對吧？每個人都必須適應這個反轉。它將會持續上漲，而你按下按鈕的速度越慢，你的利潤就越少，風險就越大。Also, I think when you’re starting out it’s a difficult trade to take. When the market’s going down, down, down, and you’re thinking, 「Oh my gosh, it’s going to fall below the January low,」 and instead it reverses up suddenly like that, it’s just really hard starting out — just become brain dead and mechanical, but that’s what I do. It’s going up 62, I don’t think, 「This can’t be happening. This is happening too fast; the risk is too big; I better wait for a pullback.」 No. I say, 「Buy the market. Just hit the button. Buy the market.」 The market is clearly going up and it’s going up very fast. It’s a big surprise to everyone, bulls and bears, it’s going higher, right? Everyone is going to have to adjust to this reversal. It’s going to go higher, and the slower you are to hit that button, the less profit you’ll have and the greater your risk will be.

要隨時準備反轉Be prepared for reversal

但在第62根K線的開始兩分鐘，市場明顯發生了變化。而且，我之前說過這些跳空K線可能導致主要趨勢反轉，所以你必須為在當天的低點附近將發生某種反轉做好準備，並且我們在日線圖上處於非常關鍵的支撐位置，另外我們還處在60分鐘圖表中的通道底部。所以有很多事情同時在這裡發生，很有可能導致反轉。

But in those first two minutes, 62, it was clearly a change in the market. There was clearly a change in the market. And, you know, I said earlier these gap bars could lead to major trend reversals so you had to be prepared for some kind of a reversal around the low of the day, and we’re at such critical support on the daily chart. And we’re also at the bottom of a channel in the 60-minute chart. So there were a lot of things going on that had the potential to lead to a reversal.

在某根K線形成時進入，比起在收盤時做多或做空會更難嗎？我有一個習慣，就是總是選擇最糟糕的時機以市價單入場。 Question 2 of 3: Do you think it is more difficult to enter as a bar is forming than it is to buy or sell closes? I have a habit for picking the worst possible tick to enter when I buy and sell the market.

該在收盤時入場，還是在之前？Enter on the close, or before?

一般來說，等收盤再進入更容易，因為很多時候你會提前預料到。在K線形成的三四分鐘內，你可能會說：「看起來這將會是一個好的收盤價。我會在它收盤時入場。」這樣你就可以做好準備。而在K線形成過程中入場，很多時候會像62那根K線那樣出乎意料，執行上非常困難。50和12那兩根K線明顯是收盤價做空的機會。尤其是50那根是非常地迅速，所以當我有什麼顧慮的時候，我會選擇以市價入場。在大多數軟件上，你都會有一個按鈕，上面寫着「市價賣出」或「市價買入」，我在50、62和64這樣的K線上經常使用它們。當市場明顯快速上漲或下跌時，你知道它將會走得更高或更低（取決於是漲勢還是跌勢），我只需點擊「市價買入」或「市價賣出」。In general, it’s easier to enter on the close because a lot of times you anticipate it. Three or four minutes into the bar you’ll say, 「Yeah, this looks like a good close. I’m going to buy it when it closes,」 so you can be ready for it. And buying as the bar is forming, a lot of times — like 62 — it’s a surprise, and it’s hard to do. 50, 12 — those were clearly Sell The Close. And 50 especially happened very, very quickly so, when in doubt — when I’m in doubt — I just enter at the market. On most software, you have some kind of a button that says, you know, Sell the market or Buy the market, and I use that a lot in bars like 50 and like bars 62 and 64. When it’s clearly moving very quickly and you know it’s going to go higher or lower, depending on if it’s a bull or a bear, I just hit 「buy the market」 or 「sell the market.」

等待確認 Waiting for confirmation

[關於選擇在最糟糕的時機入場的習慣] 你所做的反而是在等待，直到你確定市場會上漲，所以你最終會在高位買入，而此時經驗豐富的交易員已經開始部分盈利了，然後市場回調。而我不會像你這麼做，我就直接以62的收盤價入場。這樣你才可以在低於差不多12個點數的低價入場。這其實沒什麼好顧慮的，因為你知道它會上漲；你知道至少會有達到等距測量的目標，所以只要你的手數足夠小，你就有60%或70%的機會獲得與風險相當的回報，這是一筆不錯的交易。

[Ref picking worst possible tick habit] What you’re doing is you’re waiting until you’re convinced that the market is going up. So you end up buying the high and at that point experienced traders are taking partial profits, and you get a pullback. I don’t have a problem with that. Buying the 62 close, who cares, right? So you’re buying whatever, 12 points off the low. That’s fine. You know it’s going higher; you know it’s going up for at least a measured move, so as long as you can trade small enough, you have a 60 or 70 percent chance of making a reward equal to your risk. That is a good trade.

你的交易是否合理？Does your trade make sense?

所以，我不會擔心以市價單入場；我只會擔心你選擇的行動是否合理。買入63的收盤價、62的收盤價，這都是合理的。如果你設置了正確的止損並獲得了足夠的利潤，那就是合理的。所以你進場的時間比其他交易員晚一些並不重要，重要的是你所做的是合理的。

So, I wouldn’t worry about buying or selling the market; all I would worry about is whether or not whatever you choose to do makes sense, right? So buying the 63 close, 62 close, it made sense. So if you used the right stop and taken an adequate profit, it made sense so it does not matter that you’re entering a little bit later than other traders. What you’re doing makes sense.

阿布，你能否談談你是如何交易從62到65這上漲趨勢嗎？你進行了多少筆的交易？什麼時候平倉？使用市價單、限價單，還是進行一、兩點數的刮頭皮交易？ Question 3 of 3: Al, can you talk about how you traded the bull spike 62 to 65? How many trades? When flat? Market orders, limit orders, one or two point scalps?

交易員都在買入，所以你該買入！Traders are buying – so buy!

我記得我的第一筆交易，我在62迅速上漲時買入了。我不記得我當時我在交易室說了什麼，但我肯定是說這會上漲，交易員都在買入，我甚至可能說了我自己也在買入。所以第一筆的交易，老實說，我不知道賺了多少。我知道至少有一筆交易賺了四到五個點數，然後我記得我後來還進行了兩個點數的刮頭皮交易，我不記得是否還買入了其他的。對於這第一筆交易，我只是點擊了「市價買入」，然後在價格上漲到相當高的位置時獲利了。然後我買入了63的收盤價。我記得我在63的收盤價上賺了四個點數。但我不記得我是否進行了第三筆交易，還有我還做了些什麼。在這個位置，我想我買入了69的低點，然後就沒有繼續交易了。我想我是獲得了兩個點數的利潤，然後就沒有繼續了。

I think the first trade, I bought 62 as it was quickly turning up. I don’t remember what I said, but I said something to the effect that this is going up; traders are buying. I may even has said I’m buying. So the first trade, to be honest, I don’t know how much I made. I know I made at least four or five points on one trade and then I think I switched to two-point scalps. And, I don’t remember, I may have bought. This first one, I just hit 「buy the market」 and then when it got up pretty high I just took a profit. And then I bought the 63 close. I think I went for four points on the 63 close. I don’t remember. And I don’t remember if I took a third trade up there or not. And what did I do? In here, I think I bought the 69 low and that was it. I think I took two points and that was it.

沒有優勢就不該交易No edge, no trade

在價格上漲到74時，我在討論了我們是否該在這裡買入，但我已經開始感到疲倦。如果我狀態不佳，那麼我與高盛集團競爭的優勢就不存在了。所以如果我狀態不佳，我就只會坐在那裡等待。你知道，我是個人，對吧？我不是機器，每個優秀的交易員只能占有一點點優勢，因為他要與其他非常聰明、經驗豐富的交易者競爭。如果你狀態不佳，你在最佳狀態下所占有的任何優勢都會消失。而如果你沒有優勢，那麼就不該進行任何的交易。

I debated about buying as 74 was going up, but I was tired and if I’m not at my best whatever little edge I have over Goldman Sachs is non-existent. So if I’m not at my best, I just sit and I wait. You know, I’m a body, right? I’m not a machine and, every good trader can only have a small edge because he’s competing against really smart, experienced people. So if you’re not at your best, whatever edge you have when you are at your best, is not there. So if you do not have an advantage, it does not make sense taking a trade.