阿布答疑：我可以跟單賺錢嗎？

許多年前，我花費3000美金從一個公司購買了一個交易策略，同時訂閱了各種專家的分析頻道以及諮詢熱線，可最後都無疾而終。你一定也在電視上聽到過某某"專家"說：「黃金價格要漲」、「原油價格要跌」，或者「股市要漲」等等。你以為你掌握了盈利門路？實際上，你無法從中獲利。我經常說：「市場大約有10%的時間處於強勁趨勢中，在那種情況下，你只能買進或只能賣出，而剩下90%的時間是盤整狀態，在盤整區間裏，保持單邊行情的看法只會讓你虧錢。但如果你正確地管理你的交易，你任何時間買進或賣出都可以獲利」。

I remember years ago — I forget the name of the company; maybe it was Essex Trading — I paid them $3,000 for formulas.  I used to subscribe to all kinds of guru newsletters and hotlines, and a lot of it is just a total waste of money, right? If you see some clown on television saying, 「Gold is going up,」 or 「Crude oil is going down,」 or 「The stock market is going up,」 you cannot make money off of that because you hear me say this pretty regularly:  About 10 percent of the time (in strong trends) you can only make money buying or only make money selling.  90 percent of the time (in trading ranges), you can buy or sell at any point and make money, if you manage your trade correctly. 

授人以漁

授人以魚，不如授人以漁，在交易中也是如此。在你能夠完全承擔交易中所有責任之前，以交易為生是不現實的。如果你還是一位交易新手，資金也不夠大，你很容易就會說：「天哪，我真的很絕望，我必須賺回來，我花了很多時間才存下這筆本金。」在我看來，這種情緒只會讓你失去冷靜思考的能力，導致惡性循環，讓你的交易越來越差。

Teach a man to fish (trade)

You sometimes hear the adage, 「You teach a man to fish.  You don't give him a fish,」 and that's true with trading, right? Until you're completely comfortable taking full responsibility, it's really hard to make a living.  And everyone — especially if you're starting out and your account is not big, it's easier to say, 「Oh my gosh, I am really desperate.  I got to make money doing this.  It took me so much time to save up this money. I don't want to lose my other job while I start this job」. There's just a lot of personal issues involved, and I can tell you that I believe it's extremely difficult to make money, if you have to make money.

急於掙錢

你越急於掙錢，錢就越難掙，因為你覺得再不掙到錢，你的生活就要完了。你會因此更容易犯錯，而且你只會擔心風險。好的交易需要理智思考三個變量——風險、回報和概率，然而，一個急於賺錢的人只看到了一個變量：風險。如果某筆交易，市場需要一個比當前止損點高五個點的止損點，不理性的交易者會給自己一個心理暗示：「我承受不起損失，出現一點虧損，我就必須退出。」我說的對嗎？

Desperate to make money

If you're really desperate to make money, it's really hard to make money because you're going to be miserable. You're going to make mistakes, and you're going be only worried about risk, and there are three variables — risk, reward, and probability.  A person who's desperate to make money only sees one variable:  Risk. 「I can't afford to lose,」 right?  One point, two points, 「I — I got to get out,」 right?  Even though the market might call for a stop that's five points above.

客觀止損

如果一個人只考慮風險，他就會自作聰明的認為：「我知道Al說的止損應該放在哪裏，但是我可以在這根K線收盤後買入，確認下一根K線大概率還是上漲的，那樣我只需要放置一個很小很小的止損。」 然後你在下一根K線就被止損了。不可否認，你的交易方向是對的，但是你管理不當，你又虧損了，你只能看着市場打掉你的止損後遠遠離你而去。

Thinking risk only

And if a person's only thinking about risk, they're saying, 「Well, I know that's where Al says that's where the stop goes, but maybe I'll buy the Bar 17 close and take a chance that it will just go straight up and I'll put a one-point stop in.」 Then you get stopped on Bar 18, and you lost money buying.  You made a really smart trade; you know, you bought the market that's probably going up, but you managed it wrong because all you saw was risk and you did not want to lose more than a point.

帶單會影響我自己交易

回到你剛才的問題，我認為，除非那個帶單的老師把他所有的交易細節都告訴你，否則聽別人說的做是不可能賺錢的。因為市場瞬息萬變，不受任何人的預測所影響，過去的預測往往要隨着市場改變而改變。而我做不到這樣，因為我每一天都要進行很多筆交易。如果我要在思考如何設止損、收緊止損、刮頭皮等決策的時候兼顧講話，這樣只會使我的交易分心，使我的交易變差。

Talking costs money

But going back to your question. I think it's really impossible to make money listening to somebody else unless they're saying every little thing that they're doing. And I — I can't do it because I take so many trades during the day, and if I'm talking as I'm trying to make a decision about 「Do I move the stop here?  Do I get out there?  Do I just get out with just two ticks?  Do I try to hold for two points?」 you know, I cannot do both.  It will cost me too much money.

交易並非一成不變

市場瞬息萬變，交易也並非一成不變。市場上有一些交易風險小，回報大，同樣的，有一些交易初始風險大，但是實際風險小。在第二種交易中，我會使用寬止損，但是我絕對不會讓止損觸發。這類交易的優點在於：就實際風險而言，其實際風險很小，而回報很大。不知道我這樣是否解除了你心中的疑惑，但是我真的認為：通過祈求上天來保證我們永不虧錢是不現實的。如果你已經學會了我教學的策略，你就要去實踐，你需要積累經驗，才能培養出屬於自己的信心，而這些東西，不通過自己努力，僅僅靠依賴別人，是永遠得不到的。

Small risk, big reward

Sometimes I'll take finesse trades where there's some unusual situation where the risk is really not all that big and the reward is big. Or the actual risk is not big, the initial risk is big. I'm using a wide stop, but I'm never going to let the stop be hit.  In terms of actual risk, the actual risk is small and the reward is big. So I don't know.  I hope I'm answering your question, but I really think looking for a God or savior to protect you, so that you don't lose money is not going do it. That's not what you need.  What you need is practice and you got to get a lot of trades under your belt before you start feeling comfortable that you can do this. And depending on someone else to hold your hand as you do it, that's just not going to work.

只依靠建倉形態是不夠的

我曾經請過一位交易員做我的老師，現在我偶爾還會在電視上看到他，他完全就是一個騙子。在25年前，我花了3000美元請他來教我一天，我還記得那天他就坐在我旁邊，而我卻虧了3000美元。我花3000美元請他做我的老師，卻讓我虧了3000美元。我質問他：「你現在和我在一起，看着我虧損，自己卻不交易，你每天都在外面教學嗎？你自己交易多久？」他回答我：他從來沒有交易過。他教別人如何交易，自己卻不做交易，真是個騙子。我記得我當時非常絕望，我願意付出任何代價請任何人教我如何做交易。那天他教了我幾個技巧，但是那遠遠不夠，因為這一點技巧很可能第二天就不適用了，只有不斷學習才能一直在市場上活下去。

Not just about setups

I remember I once hired a tutor. The guy, I still see him out there, every now and then, at the shows.  I think he's a total fraud, but he's still out there and 25 years ago I paid him, like, $3,000 to come in for the day. And I lost $3,000 with him sitting by my side that day.  So I paid him $3,000, I lost $3,000.  And I started pressing him, 「You're here with me.  You're not trading.  How many days do you go out and teach?  How many days do you trade?」  Anyway, what it came down to was he says he never trades, and so here he is teaching people how to trade and he's not a trader.  The guy, he was a fraud.  The guy's a fraud.  He's not in the game. I was desperate, willing to pay anything to get somebody to show me how to do it. But even if he showed me one or two things that day, that still would not have been enough because those two things would not be there tomorrow, or the next day, or the next day.  There's a lot more to a trade than just setups.

使用正確的止損或止盈

我經常說： 「大多數情況下，只要你使用正確的止損和止盈，無論做空還是做多你都可以賺錢。當市場處於盤整區間時，其更加顯而易見的。」你可以在任何K線下方做多，任何K線上方做空，永遠做刮頭皮。只要你懂得這樣做，就不需要聽別人告訴你在哪裏做多、在哪裏做空。

Use correct stop and targets

In fact, you hear me regularly say — most of the time, if you use a correct stop and a profit target, you can make money buying or selling.  It's obvious when the market is like this, right?  You can buy or sell. You can buy below anything, sell above anything, and just keep scalping. But most of the time you can do that so you don't need someone to say, 「Oh Al, buy this,」 or 「Al, Al, sell that.」 

交易真的很簡單！

交易並不像想像中那麼複雜。如果我告訴你止損點在某個位置，而你認為這個位置風險太大，你就不要做這筆交易，但如果你決定要做，就一定要設置好止損點。只要你能認真制定交易計劃、設定正確的止損點，你就有可能賺到錢。交易永遠需要你承擔一定的風險，但請不要讓風險大於你的收益。當你的交易有一天不再害怕止損後，交易對你來說會簡單許多。

Trading is easy, really!

Trading is really not that complicated and I think traders learn — if you just listen to me during the day, I'm telling you the stop goes here, and you say, 「Well, I don't want to risk that much.」  Well, don't take the trade, but if you're going to take the trade, that's where the stop goes.  And if at the end of the day you sit down and listen to what I'm saying, you'll say, 「Hey, wait a minute, what Al said made sense.  You know, if I did buy there and if I did put that stop there or if I did sell there and I did put that stop there, I would have made money.」  I have to risk more than I wanted to risk, but I would have made money.  So if you can trade small enough, you can do it.  It's much easier to make money if you can trade small, and use the correct stops, and not worry about losing.