阿布答疑：我可以跟單賺錢嗎？
我記得許多年前，我花了3000美金從一個公司購買交易信號。還訂閱了各種專家的分析，諮詢熱線。但最後發現錢都打水漂了。
如果你在電視上某個"專家"說：「黃金價格要漲」，或者「原油價格要跌」，或者「股市要漲」，你無法從中獲利，因為你經常聽到我說：約有10%（強勁趨勢）的時候你只能買進或只能賣出。而剩下90%的時間（盤整區間），如果你正確地管理你的交易，你可以在任何時候買進或賣出並獲利。
I remember years ago — I forget the name of the company; maybe it was Essex Trading — I paid them $3,000 for formulas. I used to subscribe to all kinds of guru newsletters and hotlines, and a lot of it is just a total waste of money, right?
If you see some clown on television saying, 「Gold is going up,」 or 「Crude oil is going down,」 or 「The stock market is going up,」 you cannot make money off of that because you hear me say this pretty regularly: About 10 percent of the time (in strong trends) you can only make money buying or only make money selling. 90 percent of the time (in trading ranges), you can buy or sell at any point and make money, if you manage your trade correctly.
授人以漁
受人以魚，不如受人以漁，在交易中也是如此。在你完全能夠承擔交易中所有責任之前，以交易謀生確實很困難。特別是如果你剛開始，賬戶不夠大，很容易說：「天哪，我真的很絕望，我必須通過交易賺錢。我花了很多時間存下這筆本金。」這些擔憂會讓你難以兩頭兼顧。在我看來，非常想掙錢的這些情緒，會讓你的更加難在交易中成功。
Teach a man to fish (trade)
You sometimes hear the adage, 「You teach a man to fish. You don't give him a fish,」 and that's true with trading, right? Until you're completely comfortable taking full responsibility, it's really hard to make a living. And everyone — especially if you're starting out and your account is not big, it's easier to say, 「Oh my gosh, I am really desperate. I got to make money doing this. It took me so much time to save up this money. I don't want to lose my other job while I start this job」. There's just a lot of personal issues involved, and I can tell you that I believe it's extremely difficult to make money, if you have to make money.
急於掙錢
越急於掙錢，就越難掙，因為你覺得再不掙到錢，你的生活就要完了。你會因此更容易犯錯，而且你只會擔心風險。交易有三個變量——風險、回報和概率。一個急於賺錢的人只看到了一個變量：風險。「我承受不起損失」，對吧？一點點虧損，兩點點虧損，「我必須退出」，對吧？即使市場可能需要一個比當前止損點高五個點的止損點。
Desperate to make money
If you're really desperate to make money, it's really hard to make money because you're going to be miserable. You're going to make mistakes, and you're going be only worried about risk, and there are three variables — risk, reward, and probability. A person who's desperate to make money only sees one variable: Risk. 「I can't afford to lose,」 right? One point, two points, 「I — I got to get out,」 right? Even though the market might call for a stop that's five points above.
只思考窄止損
如果一個人只考慮風險，他們會說，「我知道Al說止損應該放在那裡，但是也許我會在這根K線收盤買入，期望市場繼續上漲，然後我會放一個一點的止損。」 然後你在下一根K線就止損了。你做了一個非常聰明的交易；你的方向買對了，但你管理不當，因為你只看到了風險，你不想虧超過一點。
Thinking risk only
And if a person's only thinking about risk, they're saying, 「Well, I know that's where Al says that's where the stop goes, but maybe I'll buy the Bar 17 close and take a chance that it will just go straight up and I'll put a one-point stop in.」 Then you get stopped on Bar 18, and you lost money buying. You made a really smart trade; you know, you bought the market that's probably going up, but you managed it wrong because all you saw was risk and you did not want to lose more than a point.
說太多也會影響我自己交易
回到你剛才的問題。我認為，除非那個帶單的老師把它放所有的交易細節都告訴你，否則聽別人說的做是不可能賺錢的。為什麼我不能把細節都說出來呢？因為我一天要進行太多交易了。如果我要思考如何設止損、縮窄止損、臨時決定刮頭皮等決策等，還要兼顧講話，這樣太難了，這會導致我極大的虧損。
Talking costs money
But going back to your question. I think it's really impossible to make money listening to somebody else unless they're saying every little thing that they're doing. And I — I can't do it because I take so many trades during the day, and if I'm talking as I'm trying to make a decision about 「Do I move the stop here? Do I get out there? Do I just get out with just two ticks? Do I try to hold for two points?」 you know, I cannot do both. It will cost me too much money.
小止損高回報
有時候我會做一些技巧性交易，而在這些交易中，存在一些不尋常的情況，其中風險並不是很大，但回報很大。或者實際風險小，初始風險大的交易。我使用寬止損，但是我絕對不會讓我的寬止損觸發。就實際風險而言，實際風險很小，而回報很大。不知道我這樣是否回答了你的問題，但我真的認為依靠祈求上天來保證我們不虧錢是不現實的，我們需要依靠這些策略。你需要的是實踐，必須在你開始感到自信能夠做到之前積累很多經驗。依賴別人手把手帶着你做，這樣做是行不通的。
Small risk, big reward
Sometimes I'll take finesse trades where there's some unusual situation where the risk is really not all that big and the reward is big. Or the actual risk is not big, the initial risk is big. I'm using a wide stop, but I'm never going to let the stop be hit. In terms of actual risk, the actual risk is small and the reward is big. So I don't know. I hope I'm answering your question, but I really think looking for a God or savior to protect you, so that you don't lose money is not going do it. That's not what you need. What you need is practice and you got to get a lot of trades under your belt before you start feeling comfortable that you can do this. And depending on someone else to hold your hand as you do it, that's just not going to work.
只依靠建倉形態是不夠的
我曾經請過一個交易教練。這個人，我偶爾還會在電視上看到他。我覺得他完全是個騙子，25年前我花了3000美元請他來一天。那天他就坐在我旁邊，我就這樣虧了3000美元。我給他付了3000美元，我輸了3000美元。我開始追問他：「你現在和我在一起，不在交易。你每天會去教學嗎？你會交易多少天？」最後他說他從來沒有交易過，所以他現在教別人如何交易，卻不是一個真正的交易者。這個人是騙子，因為他自己不交易。我當時非常絕望，願意付出任何代價請人教我如何做交易。但是即使那天他教我了1-2個技巧，那還是遠遠不夠的，因為這一點點技巧很可能第二天就不適用了。做一筆交易只看建倉形態是遠遠不夠的。
Not just about setups
I remember I once hired a tutor. The guy, I still see him out there, every now and then, at the shows. I think he's a total fraud, but he's still out there and 25 years ago I paid him, like, $3,000 to come in for the day. And I lost $3,000 with him sitting by my side that day. So I paid him $3,000, I lost $3,000. And I started pressing him, 「You're here with me. You're not trading. How many days do you go out and teach? How many days do you trade?」 Anyway, what it came down to was he says he never trades, and so here he is teaching people how to trade and he's not a trader. The guy, he was a fraud. The guy's a fraud. He's not in the game. I was desperate, willing to pay anything to get somebody to show me how to do it. But even if he showed me one or two things that day, that still would not have been enough because those two things would not be there tomorrow, or the next day, or the next day. There's a lot more to a trade than just setups.
使用正確的止損或止盈
大家經常聽我說 ，大多數情況下，如果你使用正確的止損和止盈目標，做空做多都可以賺錢。當市場處於這種（區間震盪）狀態時，這是顯而易見的，對吧？。你可以在任何K線下方做多，任何K線上方做空，直接刮頭皮下去。很多時候你懂得這樣做，這不需要聽別人說，"在這裡多"或者「這裡做空。」
Use correct stop and targets
In fact, you hear me regularly say — most of the time, if you use a correct stop and a profit target, you can make money buying or selling. It's obvious when the market is like this, right? You can buy or sell. You can buy below anything, sell above anything, and just keep scalping. But most of the time you can do that so you don't need someone to say, 「Oh Al, buy this,」 or 「Al, Al, sell that.」
交易真的很簡單！
交易並不像想象中那麼複雜。我的建議是，如果我告訴你止損點在某個位置，而你認為這個位置風險太大，那麼就不要做這筆交易。但如果你決定要做，那麼就設置好止損點。如果你能認真考慮交易並設定正確的止損點，你就有可能賺到錢。即使你冒一定的風險，但也不應該讓風險大於你的收益。如果你能交易足夠小的倉位，不害怕止損，然後再設置合理的止損，交易對你來說也會簡單許多。
Trading is easy, really!
Trading is really not that complicated and I think traders learn — if you just listen to me during the day, I'm telling you the stop goes here, and you say, 「Well, I don't want to risk that much.」 Well, don't take the trade, but if you're going to take the trade, that's where the stop goes. And if at the end of the day you sit down and listen to what I'm saying, you'll say, 「Hey, wait a minute, what Al said made sense. You know, if I did buy there and if I did put that stop there or if I did sell there and I did put that stop there, I would have made money.」 I have to risk more than I wanted to risk, but I would have made money. So if you can trade small enough, you can do it. It's much easier to make money if you can trade small, and use the correct stops, and not worry about losing.