Guideline 15. 60 percent is 60 percent in only 90 percent of the cases and can be 90 percent sometimes and 10 percent at other times：修订间差异

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Much of life is not what it seems. In fact, the famous mathematician Charles Lutwidge Dodgson was not what he seemed to be and is better known as Lewis Carroll. We work in an Alice in Wonderland world where nothing is really as it seems. Up is not always up and down is not always down. Just look at most strong breakouts of trading ranges—they usually fail, and up is really the start of down and down is really just part of up. Also, 60 percent is 60 percent in only 90 percent of the cases and can be 90 percent sometimes and 10 percent at other times. If a good setup is 60 percent, how can you win 80 percent or more of the time? Well, in a pullback in a strong trend just above support, a setup might work 60 percent of the time, but if you can scale in as the market goes lower, especially if your subsequent entries are larger, you might find that you win in 80 percent or more of those 60 percent setups. Also, if you use a very wide stop and are willing to sit through a large drawdown for a couple of hours, that 60 percent chance of making two points before losing two points in the Emini might be a 90 percent chance of making four points before losing eight points. If you are flexible and comfortable with constantly changing probabilities and many probabilities coexisting, your chance of success is much greater.