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Opening Reversal. ''Opening reversal simply means the initial price move in one direction on the open '''stops or reversals''', usually within the first 90 minutes (bar 18).'' Opening reversal is an early reversal at support or resistance. | Opening Reversal. ''Opening reversal simply means the initial price move in one direction on the open '''stops or reversals''', usually within the first 90 minutes (bar 18).'' Opening reversal is an early reversal at support or resistance. | ||
== | == Probability == | ||
*'''80% of days''', market test support or resistance in '''1st 90 minutes (bar 18)''', and the '''reversal often creates high or low of day.''' | *'''80% of days''', market test support or resistance in '''1st 90 minutes (bar 18)''', and the '''reversal often creates high or low of day.''' | ||
*'''80% of days''' with strong rally on the open have minor reversal down lasting '''at least 5 bars (typically 5-10 bars, i.e. a TBTL correction)'''<ref>https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/trade-price-action/video-48a-trading-the-open/</ref>. | *'''80% of days''' with strong rally on the open have minor reversal down lasting '''at least 5 bars (typically 5-10 bars, i.e. a TBTL correction)'''<ref>https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/trade-price-action/video-48a-trading-the-open/</ref>. | ||
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=== Initial Selloff Matters === | === Initial Selloff Matters === | ||
*If the initial selloff is 25%-50% of average range, then often get big bull trend after the reversal; if it is 50%-100% of average range, then usually get TR day, even if big rally. '''This is true for all reversals, not just on the open.''' | *If the initial selloff is 25%-50% of average range, then often get big bull trend after the reversal; if it is 50%-100% of average range, then usually get TR day, even if big rally. '''This is true for all reversals, not just on the open.''' | ||
[[File:Screenshot 2023-01-16 at 10-52-08 Video 48A Trading the Open Brooks Trading Course.png|center|thumb|749x749px|Big failed bear BO: TR more likely than big bull trend ]] | [[File:Screenshot 2023-01-16 at 10-52-08 Video 48A Trading the Open Brooks Trading Course.png|center|thumb|749x749px|Big failed bear BO: TR more likely than big bull trend ]]<blockquote>''but I think a few things worth to point out about this slide: 1) there is a assumption that market had a reasonable strong enough reversal attempt, at least 3+ CCBLBs in the reversal attempt; 2) whether market reversed from an important/obvious SR, if so that should increase the PP of successful reversal; 3) relative strength of bulls, for e.g. if the initial sell off was very strong but the bulls reversal are equal strong or even looks stronger, that might also increase the chance of bigger reversal.''</blockquote><references /> | ||
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[[Category:Case Study]] | [[Category:Case Study]] | ||