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Opening Reversal. ''Opening reversal simply means the initial price move in one direction on the open '''stops or reversals''' | Opening Reversal. ''Opening reversal simply means the initial price move in one direction on the open '''stops or reversals''', usually within the first 90 minutes (bar 18).'' Opening reversal is an early reversal at support or resistance. | ||
* 80% of days, market test support or resistance in '''1st 90 minutes (bar 18)''', and the '''reversal often creates high or low of day.''' | * '''80% of days''', market test support or resistance in '''1st 90 minutes (bar 18)''', and the '''reversal often creates high or low of day.''' | ||
* 80% of days, the market opens have reversals (''Opening Reversal, indicating the end of the trend from the open''), which means '''Trend From The Open lasting all day only 20% of day ''(i.e. once every week on average)'''''<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/181030-futuresio-Patterns-on-the-Open-Al-Brooks.pdf'' </ref><ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/171017-Futures.io-Presentation-Opening-Reversals-Al-Brooks.pdf''</ref>. ''And only 10% of days are strong trend days''<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/trade-price-action/video-48a-trading-the-open/''</ref>. | * '''80% of days''' with strong rally on the open have minor reversal down lasting '''at least 5 bars (typically 5-10 bars, i.e. a TBTL correction)'''<ref>https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/trade-price-action/video-48a-trading-the-open/</ref>. | ||
* | * '''80% of days''', the market opens have ''(at least a '''minor)''''' '''reversals''' (''Opening Reversal, indicating the end of the trend from the open''), which also means '''Trend From The Open lasting all day only 20% of day ''(i.e. once every week on average)'''''<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/181030-futuresio-Patterns-on-the-Open-Al-Brooks.pdf'' </ref><ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/171017-Futures.io-Presentation-Opening-Reversals-Al-Brooks.pdf''</ref>. ''And only 10% of days are strong trend days''<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/trade-price-action/video-48a-trading-the-open/''</ref>. | ||
**''For it to become a successful reversal, '''the single most important thing to look for is''' '''whether the initial move is climatic'''.'' | *'''50% of days''', the market has a '''major reversal''' on the open, no matter how strong the initial BO looks like, '''however at the same time, notice that by the close of 2nd bar closing near its low, 60% chance of MM down from the open of 1st bar to the close of the final bar of the bear BO (in bear case)'''<ref>''[https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/bonus-videos/trading-patterns-on-the-open/ Bonus Video 02: Trading Patterns on the Open]''</ref>. | ||
**''If it is to become a successful reversal, it usually starts with a Double Bottom(or DT) or Wedge Bottom(or WT).'' | **''For it to become a successful reversal, '''the single most important thing to look for is''' '''whether the initial move is climatic''' (for e.g. parabolic wedge).'' | ||
**''If it is to become a successful reversal, take bear case as example, it usually starts with a Double Bottom(or DT) or Wedge Bottom(or WT). This also means that if the initial move is not clearly climatic, traders should look for strong patterns like DT or Wedge Top after a good gap up.'' | |||
**''When the context is right, the chance of a successful reversal can increase to '''60% or higher'''. For e.g. if the open has a very strong selloff for 18 bars, and market forms a possible consecutive parabolic wedge bottom, and there is a huge bear bar late in the bear trend, there is 60% chance of a successful bull reversal or one more leg down and then reversal. See example in [[Gap Up and Sell Climax, Then Reversal Up]].'' | **''When the context is right, the chance of a successful reversal can increase to '''60% or higher'''. For e.g. if the open has a very strong selloff for 18 bars, and market forms a possible consecutive parabolic wedge bottom, and there is a huge bear bar late in the bear trend, there is 60% chance of a successful bull reversal or one more leg down and then reversal. See example in [[Gap Up and Sell Climax, Then Reversal Up]].'' | ||
**''Factors that can '''increase''' the probability of a successful reversal: (which increases the probability that the selloff on the open is some kind of profit taking or vacuum effect v.s. beginning of a strong bear trend)'' | **''Factors that can '''increase''' the probability of a successful reversal: (which increases the probability that the selloff on the open is some kind of profit taking or vacuum effect v.s. beginning of a strong bear trend)'' | ||
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**#''other minor details such as gaps, tick gaps, etc.'' | **#''other minor details such as gaps, tick gaps, etc.'' | ||
**''Factors that can '''decrease''' the probability of a successful reversal:'' | **''Factors that can '''decrease''' the probability of a successful reversal:'' | ||
**# ''the sell climax itself is a [[SPBRT]], which might indicate less exhausted bears, hence decrease the strength of bull reversal (if there is a reversal attempt).'' | **#''the sell climax itself is a [[SPBRT]], which might indicate less exhausted bears, hence decrease the strength of bull reversal (if there is a reversal attempt).'' | ||
**# ''the first reversal fails immediately at EMA and PB to entry bar which then take out the entry bar (this time trader may consider reversing into short), the market usually has 1 more leg down. (after that, 20% bull reversal, 60% or more, you get a TR on the lower half day range)'' | **#''the first reversal fails immediately at EMA and PB to entry bar which then take out the entry bar (this time trader may consider reversing into short), the market usually has 1 more leg down. (after that, 20% bull reversal, 60% or more, you get a TR on the lower half day range)'' | ||
**# ''the entry bar doesn't have good closes or the FT bar looks weak, traders need to be aware of possible [[SPBRT]].'' | **#''the entry bar doesn't have good closes or the FT bar looks weak, traders need to be aware of possible [[SPBRT]].'' | ||
**# ''other minor details such as lacking of gaps, tick gaps, etc.'' | **#''other minor details such as lacking of gaps, tick gaps, etc.'' | ||