阿布答疑：什麼是「阿甘式交易」？

https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/ask-al/full-trading-room-qa-session/

I don’t have any specific rules, but in general, sometimes you’ll hear me say 「just trade stupid.」 You just turn your brain off, take the trade, use the appropriate stop even though it’s far away, and then just sit there, hoping that the market’s going to go your way.

有時候你會聽到我說「阿甘式交易」，但總的來說它並沒有很具體的定義，交易其實可以很簡單，你只需要在合適的時機入場，設置正確的止損點位，然後耐心等待，放空你的大腦，入場後不要隨便更改你的交易計劃，希望市場會朝着你的方向走。

Anywhere on the way down here, especially once we’ve broken above the bull Micro Channel – a 「trade stupid」 type of trade would be just buy the market, put a stop below the low of the day, go to Walmart. I have a limit order to get out at the open of the day so your reward is about the same as your risk, but the probability is 60% that you’ll make your money before you get your stop hit.

比如一旦我們發現市場的價格突破了bull micro channel，「阿甘式交易」就是在這下方買入，並將你的止損放在bull micro channel最低點下方，然後你可以去超市走一趟或者隨便做些什麼事情都可以。我會在低點的下方用一個賣出限價單來平倉，確保我的回報與風險大致相同，但是有60%的概率在市場價格觸發我的止損單之前市場價格先達到我的止盈。

And when I say trade stupid, I mean don’t overthink and don’t look at too many things. Don’t go flipping around different timeframes, different markets – NASDAQ, SPYDR, JP Morgan, Apple. Just look at the chart in front of you and don’t worry about all the things that you’re not seeing.

當我說「阿甘式交易」時，我的意思是：不要想得太多，不要看太多東西。不要在不同的時間框架、不同的市場——納斯達克、SPYDR、JP摩根、蘋果等來回翻轉。只看眼前的圖表，不要擔心你看不到的所有東西。

Even though I might see 50 reasonable scalps on a typical chart like this, if I really wanted to, I could flip around to different timeframes. I could have a giant monitor with a 1-minute chart, 2-minute chart, 3-minute, 4, 5-minute, 10, 15-minute chart. Then you could have tick charts. 1000 ticks, 2500 ticks, 5000 ticks. Volume charts. I could have range charts. I could have 15 different ways of looking at the Emini. Instead of having 50 setups a day, I could probably see 100, 200 setups a day, even though there are only 81 bars on the Emini.

即使我在典型的圖表上發現50個可以合理執行的交易計劃，但如果我真的想的話，我可以翻轉到不同的時間框架去找到更多的交易計劃。我可以有一個巨大的顯示器，上面有1分鐘圖表、2分鐘圖表、3分鐘、4分鐘、5分鐘、10分鐘、15分鐘圖表。然後你可以有點數圖表。1000個點、2500個點、5000個點。還有成交量圖表和範圍圖表。我可以用15種不同的方式來看待Emini。儘管 Emini 每天在常規交易時間的5min圖表上只有81根K線，但我每天可以看到大約100或者200個的交易機會。

To me, trading stupid is just looking at one chart and not worrying about anything else. Just try to look for the setups here and then try to figure out if I can structure a trade that makes sense mathematically. Will the trader’s equation be good? You’ve got to deal with risk, reward, and probability. Is the probability that you’re going to make money times your reward greater than the probability that you’re going to lose money times your risk?

對我來說，「阿甘式交易」就是只看一個圖表，不用擔心其他任何事情。只要嘗試在這個圖表裏尋找入場機會，然後嘗試確定是否可以構建一個在數學上合理的交易。你必須考慮你的交易的風險、回報和成功概率。你獲利的概率乘以你的回報是否大於你虧損的概率乘以你的風險？

I know I’m not really answering your question, but when I say trade stupid, I simply mean don’t overthink. You see where the buy is, you see where the stop is, you know where you’re thinking the target is. Just take the trade, and if you find yourself micromanaging it and exiting early, especially exiting early with a loss, take the trade, put in your stop, put in your profit-taking order, OCO (one cancels the other), and go out and do an errand and come back in 30 minutes or an hour or so.

我知道我或許並沒有真正回答你的問題，但是當我說「阿甘式交易」時，我只是指不要過度思考。你看到了一個合適的買入的點位，你知道你的止損位在哪裏，你也知道你的目標位在哪裏。如果你發現自己過度干預並提前退出你原定的交易計劃，特別是在有虧損的情況下提前退出。那麼我認為你是錯誤的，你需要適時入場，設置好止損、止盈訂單、OCO（一個取消另一個），然後出去做點事，過30分鐘或一個小時左右再回來看看。

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備註：

1. 源自於《阿甘正傳》（英語：Forrest Gump），一套1994年的美國電影。主角阿甘童年時被診斷出智商只有75，但在他的堅持下完成了許多人一輩子都做不到的事。Al Brooks 藉此來比喻：即使我們的交易只做最簡單的事情，只看一個時間級別，不做過度思考，堅持下去，我們也能成功。

譯自：Brooks Trading Course