阿布答疑：外汇交易
Al回答了一系列外汇交易问题，涵盖了外汇和Emini之间的区别以及更多内容。Al还讨论了创建独立的外汇交易课程的理由。 Al replies to a number of Forex trading questions, covering the differences between Forex and the Emini, and much more. Al also discusses the rationale for creating a separate Forex trading course.
外汇课程
正如你所知，我正在重新制作整个课程，而且有足够多的人要求一个外汇课程，所以我决定继续做下去。所以现在，我同时在做Emini课程，这也基本上和股票、原油和黄金的课程一样——它们都交易得非常相似——而且对于外汇市场来说也差不多一样，但是外汇市场有足够多的小细节让我决定——还有，很多交易者只想看外汇图表；他们不想看Emini图表或原油图表。所以我正在制作一个平行的课程：外汇交易。而且很多图表都是一样的；有很多图表我没有显示价格或时间轴；我只是试着显示柱形图案。所以有很多图表和Emini课程和外汇课程是一样的，但是有足够的差异让我觉得值得有一个外汇课程。
As you know, I’m redoing the entire course, and there have been enough requests for a Forex course that I decided that I would go ahead and do that. So right now, I’m working on both the Emini course, which is also basically the same course as for stocks and crude oil, and gold — they trade all very similarly — and it’s also pretty much the same for Forex markets as well, but there are enough little subtleties about the Forex markets that I decided — also, a lot of traders only want to see Forex charts; they don’t want to see Emini charts or crude oil charts. So I’m making a parallel course: Forex Trading. And a lot of the charts are the same; there’s a lot of the charts I don’t show price or time axes; I’m just trying to show bar patterns. So there are a lot of charts that are the same to the Emini course and the Forex course, but there are enough differences to make it, I think, worthwhile to have a Forex course.
Q: 外汇市场和Emini之间的价格行为有显著的差异吗？
没有，但是有一些差异，而且差异足够大，以至于如果你是一个外汇交易者，你可能更喜欢有一个完全关于外汇交易的课程，这就是为什么我在做它。
Q: 对于特殊技能，你需要什么特殊技能来交易外汇吗？
不需要。它基本上和交易原油、股票、Emini一样，但是有一些小差别。
问：我的课程计划是什么？
显然，我想帮助交易者赚钱，希望这门课程能帮助交易者赚钱。例如，在欧元兑美元的许多交易日中，交易区间很小，只有50个点或30个点，如果你要交易外汇市场，你必须进行短线交易才能赚钱。但是，外汇市场真的是非常适合限价单的市场。
很多外汇交易日看起来就像这个图表，非常好。你可以在低点买入，逐步加仓并进行短线交易。但有时候，你会看到大的突破，它们可能会在更高的时间框架上产生大的突破，比如12月3日，欧元兑美元出现了巨大的多头逆转，当时我说“60%的概率我们会得到第二个上涨”，但当天的情况非常激烈，可能要等一个月左右才会开始第二个上涨。但在那一天，买入非常容易。即使在今天的欧元兑美元，我们也有小幅回调的多头趋势。此外，欧元买家的背景非常好。这是五分钟图表。你可以看到你需要买入。如果你要交易，你必须买入。60分钟图表，出现了三次下跌——现在我们有三个阳线高收，可能会有人在下方买入并稍微上涨。240分钟图表，你可以看到楔形。迄今为止没有一个非常好的信号K线，但它看起来可能会反弹。相当紧密的通道TCH，因此——像这样，可能是一个MRV轻微的逆转。
每当我看到这样的逆转——我之前谈到过这个——看向左边。有一个缺口吗？这个条形图与那个条形图重叠了一个点，所以有一个缺口，我们可能必须到达这个MM等距目标，然后才能反弹。但我确实认为，无论是否先进一步下跌，我们都会回到那个缺口。
如果你看这个图表，对我来说它看起来与Emini图表完全相同，可以用相同的方式进行交易。相同的人在交易；高盛，所有大银行，所有大基金。他们都在交易外汇市场。外汇市场是巨大的。事实上，它比股票市场还大。高盛并不害怕交易外汇市场，因为他们在与专门从事外汇交易的公司交易。绝不是这样。高盛将毫不犹豫地交易外汇市场。
Q: Are there significant price action differences between the Forex market and the Emini?
No, but there are some differences and there are differences enough so that if you’re a Forex trader, you might prefer having a course that is entirely about Forex trading, and that’s why I’m doing it.
Q: For special skills, do you need any special skills to trade Forex?
No. It’s basically the same as trading crude oil, the same as trading stocks, the same as trading Emini, but there are a bunch of little differences.
Q: What was my plan with the course?
Obviously, I want to help traders make money, and I’m hoping that the course helps traders make money. A lot of days in the Euro versus the dollar, for example, in the days there’s sideways and small, 50 pip ranges, 30 pip ranges for most of the day, and you have to scalp to make money if you’re going to be trading the Forex markets. But — and the Forex markets are really good limit order markets.<.p>
A lot of Forex days look just like this, and they’re really good. You buy lows, you scale in higher, and you scalp. But other times, you get big breakouts and they can create big breakouts on higher time frame, 60-minute chart, like December 3rd we had that huge bull reversal in the Euro versus the dollar, and at the time I said “60 percent chance we would get a second leg up”. But, the day was so climactic that we may go sideways for a month before that second leg up began. But during that day, it was very easy to buy. Even today in the Euro, we had a small pullback bull trend. Plus, the context is really good for buyers of the Euro right now. This is the five-minute chart. You see that you got to buy. If you’re going to be trading it, you got to buy. And 60-minute chart, three pushes down — now we got three bull bars closing near their highs, probably buyers below and a little bit more up. 240-minute chart; you can see the wedge. Not a very good entry bar so far, but it looks like it could bounce. Pretty tight channel, so — like this, probably a minor reversal.
Any time I see a reversal up like this — I talked about this earlier — look to the left. Is there a gap? And this bar overlaps that bar by one pip, so there is a gap and we may have to get down to this measured move projection before we rally. But I do think we’re going to get back up to that gap, whether or not we go down further first.
If you look at this chart, to me it looks identical to an Emini chart where you trade it the same. The same people are trading; Goldman Sachs, all the big banks, all the big funds. They’re trading Forex markets. The Forex market is huge. It’s, in fact, bigger than the stock market. And it’s not as if Goldman Sachs is afraid to trade Forex because they’re trading against firms that are dedicated to Forex trading. Not at all. Goldman Sachs will not hesitate to trade Forex markets.
一个重要的区别
我认为外汇交易和Emini交易之间有一个重要的区别，那就是外汇市场有更多的白痴——更多的专家是白痴。还有一档节目——我忘记叫什么了，在CNBC上讲外汇交易的，现在已经停播了。它停播的原因是前提是错误的。每个交易者都会看图表，试图在支撑位或阻力位买入，如果他们在买入，他们会说：“哦，基本面非常看涨。”或者如果他们在卖出，他们会说：“哦，基本面非常看跌。”然后他们会谈论不同国家的央行以及各种基本面的胡言乱语——你知道的，中国经济疲软或澳大利亚有贵金属问题，或者谁知道，挪威——原油价格正在下跌。这纯属胡说八道。那些以这种方式交易的人我认为是傻瓜，我真的不相信他们在赚钱。我当然不相信他们用这种逻辑赚钱。
我认为，如果他们是基于支撑和阻力进行交易的，他们是在赚钱的，而他们确实都是这样做的。但是其他关于“哦，原油价格正在下跌，因此挪威克朗将贬值，澳大利亚元和加元都将受到打击”的胡言乱语。这完全是无稽之谈，对吧？机构已经知道所有这些了。
作为一个交易者，你只关心“有没有突破？突破是否强劲？突破是否会逆转？我们是否处于重要的支撑位？我们是否处于更高时间框架上的支撑或阻力位？市场在支撑和阻力位上的表现如何？”这和其他市场一样。市场基于逻辑运作。你可能不理解这个逻辑，但所有市场都基于逻辑运作。并不是外汇市场、黄金市场、股票市场都有不同的逻辑。不，它们都是理性人行为的代表，因此它们都会有相同数量的价格行为。
An important difference
There’s one, I think, important difference between Forex trading and Emini trading, and that’s that there are more idiots in the Forex market — more experts who are idiots. And there was a show — I forgot the name of it, “Money in Motion” or something on CNBC about Forex trading, and it went off the air. And the reason it went off the air is because the premise was flawed. Every trader looked at a chart and they were trying to buy at support or buy at resistance, and if they were buying they would say, “Oh, the fundamentals are really bullish.” Or if they’re selling, they’d say, “Oh, the fundamentals are really bearish.” And they’d be talking about central banks in different countries and all kinds of fundamental nonsense — you know, China is weak or Australia is having problems with precious metals, or who knows what, Norway — the crude oil price is going down. It’s just nonsense. It’s just total nonsense. And people who are trading thinking that way I think are fools, and I really do not believe they are making money. I certainly do not believe they are making money with the logic that they’re saying.
I do think they are making money if they’re trading based upon support and resistance, which they all are. But the other nonsense about, “Oh, crude oil’s going down, therefore the Norwegian Kroner is going to fall in value, the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar are all going to get hurt.” And it’s total nonsense, right? The institutions already know all that.
As a trader, all you care about is “Are there breakouts? Are the breakouts strong? Are the breakouts going to reverse? Are we at significant support? Are we at support or resistance on a higher time frame? What is the market doing at the support and resistance?” It’s the same as any other market. Markets function based upon logic. You may not understand the logic, but all markets function on logic. And it’s not as if the Forex market on gold market, stock market all have different logic. No, they’re all representations of rational human behavior, so they’re all going to have the same amount of price action.
其他外汇市场的差异
外汇市场的区别之一是它们不受监管。 另一个区别是，没有交易所。因此，图表上的最后价格--TradeStation上的欧元对美元的最后价格将与Interactive Brokers上的价格不同。 这可能是一两个点的差异。 它与其他经纪商的价格不同，因为这个经纪商使用TradeStation的数据，他们以一家银行为基础，而这家银行在5分钟内的最后一笔交易可能与其他经纪商使用的银行的最后一笔交易价格不一样，所以图表不是绝对相同的。 价格是有一定差异的。
另外，图表本身--它不是真实的交易。 在TradeStation，我相信他们使用的是买入价格，而不是最后的价格。 因此，例如，这个价格你认为，"哦，那是最后一次交易"。 不，它不是。 那是最后的买入价。 每个价格都有一个买入价和一个卖出价，由于图表是根据买入价和卖出价制作的，而不是最后的价格，有时我们得到一个填补，我们说，"等一下，它从未达到我的价格。 它怎么会被填补？" 这是因为它确实达到了你的价格。 图表不是基于实际的交易；它是基于出价和要价。 如果最后一笔交易没有达到出价，或者没有达到要价，图表就不能代表价格。 有时，你会在一个条形图的高点以下的价格被填满，或者在这里被填满，或者在这里被填满，你会说，"它从未到达那里。 它怎么会被填满？" 这是因为你有一个基于出价的图表，或者也许可以有基于要价的图表。 你可以用TradeStation和很多经纪商的方式来做。 因此，图表并不那么准确。
Other Forex market differences
One of the differences with Forex markets is that they’re not regulated. Another difference is that there are no exchanges. So the last price on a chart — this last price on the Euro versus the dollar on TradeStation is going to be different from the price on Interactive Brokers. It might be a pip or two difference. And it’s different on the price from any other broker because this broker uses TradeStation data, they’re basing it upon one bank, and the last trade during this five-minute interval for that bank may not be at an identical price as the last trade at a bank that another broker uses, so the charts are not absolutely identical. The prices are somewhat different.
Also, the chart itself — it’s not real trades. In TradeStation, I believe they use bid prices, not last prices. So for example, this price you think, “Oh, that’s the last trade.” No, it’s not. That’s the last bid price. Every price has a bid and an ask, and because charts are made on bid and asks and not last prices, sometimes we get a fill in and we say, “Wait a minute, it never reached my price. How did it get filled?” It’s because it did reach your price. The chart is not based upon actual trades; it’s based upon bids and asks. If the last trade did not reach the bid or it did not reach the ask, the chart is not going to be representative of the price. Sometimes, you’ll get filled on a price below the high of a bar, or up here, or it might get filled down here and you say, “It never got there. How did it get filled?” It’s because you have a chart that’s based upon the bid or maybe can have it based on ask. You can do it either way with TradeStation and with a lot of brokers. So charts are not as accurate.
那么为什么要交易Emini？
那么，为什么我要交易Emini而不是外汇市场呢？我一直在交易外汇市场，但为什么我更多地交易Emini呢？这是因为最小头寸。对我来说，在外汇市场上最小的头寸是10个pips，如果你交易少于10个pips，要想稳定地赚钱就很困难。图表并不完全准确。你有买入/卖出价差，你有佣金，所有这些都使得如果你交易少于10个pips，要想赚钱就很困难。那么，为什么这很重要呢？如果我的最小交易是在外汇市场上的10个pips，我一天可以做多少个10个pips的交易呢？总的来说，外汇市场的波动幅度小于Emini市场，所以仅仅因为这个原因，要想赚10个pips的机会就比在Emini市场上赚一个点的机会少。因此，Emini市场每天的波动范围足够大，让我可以看到大约40个一点的交易和大约20个两点的交易。在外汇市场上，一般来说，平均一天可能只有10个一点的交易，而不是40个。因此，在Emini市场上有更多的交易机会。
另一方面，外汇市场每天24小时交易。基本上有三个交易时段——亚洲、欧洲和美国——因此你可以在任何时候进行交易，无论是白天还是晚上。你也可以在任何时候交易Emini，但经常在纽约证券交易所关闭后市场就会变得很安静，但外汇市场不是这样的。因此，如果你住在亚洲，想交易Emini，如果你真的想得到良好的波动，你必须在晚上交易。如果你住在欧洲，你可以毫不费力地交易德国DAX指数期货，你可以交易欧洲债券，你可以交易任何欧洲股票指数期货，但你可能不会交易Emini。你可能不会交易恒生指数期货。但如果你交易外汇市场，无论你在地球上的哪个地方，你几乎可以24小时交易。会有一些交易时段之间的小间隙，两三个小时的交易范围很窄，但总的来说，我们有交易的优势，可以在一天的任何时间、世界的任何地方进行交易。
因此，当我去亚洲时，如果我在香港交易，我会在晚上10点左右交易，一直交易到早上4点左右，这很困难。保持清醒很困难；保持警觉很困难。但如果我在香港交易外汇市场，我可以在白天交易。这更符合我的生物节律。
So why trade the Emini?
Now, why do I trade the Emini compared to Forex markets? I trade the Forex markets all the time, but why do I trade the Emini so much more? Well, because of minimums. For me, the minimum scalp in the Forex market is 10 pips, and it’s hard to consistently make money if you’re trading less than 10 pips. The charts are not entirely accurate. You have bid/ask spreads; you have commissions, and all of that make it difficult to make money if you’re trading for less than 10 pips. Now, why is that important? Well, if my minimum trade is 10 pips on the Forex market, how many 10 pip trades can I get in a day? Forex markets, in general, move less than the Emini, so, on that basis alone there would be less opportunities to make 10 pips than there are if you make a one-point scalp in the Emini. So on the Emini every day, the range is big enough for me to see about 40 one-point scalp trades and about 20 two-point scalp trades. In the Forex market on an average day, instead of 40 one-point scalps there might be 10 one-point scalps. So there are far more trades available on the Emini.
On the other hand, the Forex market trades 24 hours a day. There’s basically a set of three sessions — Asia, and then Europe, and then the United States — so you can be trading any time, day or night. And you can trade the Emini any time, day or night, but so often it’s quiet after the New York Stock Exchange closes, but that’s not true of the Forex market. So if you live in Asia and you want to trade the Emini, you have to be trading at night if you really want to get good movement. If you live in Europe, you can trade the DAX no problem, you can trade European bonds, you can trade any European stock index future, but you probably will not trade the Emini. You probably will not trade the Hang Seng. But if you trade the Forex markets, pretty much no matter where you are in the planet, you can trade pretty much 24 hours a day. There are little gaps between the sessions, two or three hours of tight trading ranges, but for the most part we have the advantage of being able to trade any time of the day, any part of the world, and trade during the day.
So when I go to Asia, if I’m in Hong Kong and I’m trading, I’m trading at 10 o’clock at night until 4 o’clock in the morning or so, and that’s harder to do. It’s hard to stay awake; it’s hard to stay alert. But if I’m trading Forex markets in Hong Kong, I can trade during the day. It coincides more with my biorhythm.
外汇头寸调整
外汇市场的另一个优势——一个很大的优势是你可以调整你的头寸大小。在Emini中，有一个最小的头寸大小，基本上现在是10万美元。如果Emini在2000美元左右，每点50美元，基本上每个Emini合约控制着10万美元的股票。外汇市场的标准头寸大小是10万单位，一般来说，它和Emini差不多大，但是外汇市场你可以交易小一点。你可以交易5万单位；你可以交易1万单位；你可以交易5000单位。所以如果你刚开始，外汇市场提供了一个很大的优势。你在学习如何交易时可以少亏钱。你可以交易非常小。你可以交易1万单位。你可能会说，“阿尔，如果我用1万单位做所有这些小规模的交易，赚10美元”，没错。但是当你亏钱时，也只亏10美元，这给了你很多练习的机会。你可以练习一年或两年，也不会真正损失太多钱，所以这也是一个很大的优势。
另外，在外汇市场中，人们通常不会提到跳点（ticks），而是谈论点数（pips），这基本上是一回事。我的意思是它就是一回事。所以每次上下移动都是一个点数（pip）。而股票和Emini、原油、黄金——每次上下移动都是一个跳点（tick）。最后，在外汇市场中，我经常会在60分钟图或2小时图或4小时图上进行交易——有时候在日线图或周线图上进行交易。我在Emini中做得比较少，在外汇市场中我更愿意持有隔夜仓位，部分原因是我是个日内交易者。我一天要做20、30、有时40笔交易，在外汇市场中——我看到60分钟图和2小时、4小时图、日线图上有很多形态，并且我可以调整我的头寸大小，并且止损非常可靠，并且我觉得自己不会陷入麻烦。隔夜时我什么都不担心。我不担心出现大幅缺口开盘价。我感觉非常舒服。
Forex position sizing
Another advantage of the Forex markets — one of the big advantage is you can adjust your position size. In the Emini, there is a minimum position size and basically $100,000 right now. If the Emini’s around $2,000 and it’s $50 a point, basically each Emini contract is controlling $100,000 worth of stock. The standard position size in the Forex market’s 100,000 units, in general, it’s about the same size as the Emini, but with Forex markets you can trade small. You can trade 50,000 units; you can trade 10,000 units; you can trade 5,000 units. So if you’re starting out, Forex markets offer a really big advantage. You can lose a lot less while learning how to trade. You can trade really small. You can trade 10,000 units. You can say, “Well Al, if I take all these scalps of 10,000 units and make $10,” right, it’s true. But when you lose, you lose $10, and that gives you the ability to get a lot of practice. You can practice for a year or two and not really lose all that much money, so that’s another big advantage.
Also, Forex markets, instead of referring to ticks, people talk about pips, which is basically the same thing. I mean, it is the same thing. So each little move up or down is a pip. Whereas stocks and Emini, crude oil, gold — every little move up or down is a tick. And then finally with the Forex markets, a lot of times I’ll take trades on the 60-minute chart or the two-hour chart or the four-hour chart — sometimes the daily chart or the weekly chart. I do that much less in the Emini, and I’m much more willing to hold positions overnight in the Forex markets, in part because I’m a day trader. I take 20, 30, sometimes 40 trades in a day, and Forex markets — I see a lot of patterns on the 60-minute chart and the two-hour, four-hour chart, daily chart, and I can adjust my position size, and the stops are very reliable, and I’m comfortable not getting in trouble. Overnight, I don’t worry about anything. I don’t worry about big gap openings. I feel really comfortable.
持仓过夜
如果你交易的是一个更高的时间框架图表，并且持有一天、两天、三天或者过夜的仓位——这很好——如果我不是在五分钟图上进行日内交易，我也会对Emini持有过夜的仓位感到舒服。但是由于我一整天都在看着五分钟图，在五分钟图上进行全天的交易，我会覆盖我在60分钟图上做出的任何交易决定。所以如果我在60分钟图上做空，然后我在五分钟图上看到这样的情况，我就会买回我的空头。所以对我来说，很难——不可能——在同时积极地交易五分钟图的情况下，去交易60分钟图或者两小时图、四小时图，因为我会在五分钟图上看到与我的60分钟仓位相反的走势，而当我知道市场正在反向运行，并且我可以以更好的价格出场和再次进场时候，继续持有60分钟仓位对我来说没有意义。
外汇市场，如果我有一个60分钟的交易，并且要持有过夜，通常我会在晚上把订单放在市场上，很多时候我会在半夜获得利润。当早晨醒来时候，就会说：“哇哦！今天已经赚到了我的目标”，因为一笔过夜外汇交易。但是对于Emini来说，我不愿意这样做。
Holding positions overnight
If you’re trading a higher time frame chart and holding position a day, two, three days, overnight — which is nice — I would be comfortable doing that with the Emini as well if I were not day trading the five-minute chart. But since I’m here watching it all day long on the five-minute chart trading all day on the five-minute chart, I would override any decisions that I was making on a trade on the 60-minute chart. So if I short the 60-minute chart and I start seeing this on the five-minute chart, I’m going to buy back my short. So it’s really hard for me to — it’s impossible for me to trade the 60-minute chart or the two-hour chart, four-hour chart if I’m also actively trading the five-minute chart because I’ll see moves on the five-minute chart that are opposite to my position on the 60-minute chart, and that does not make sense to me to hold the 60-minute position when I know the market’s going against me and I could get out and get back in at a better price.
Forex markets, if I have a 60-minute trade on that I’m holding overnight, usually I get out — I have orders placed in the market at night, and a lot of times I’ll get my profit in the middle of the night. I’ll wake up and I’ll say, “Wow, I’ve already made my nut for the day,” because of an overnight Forex trade. But I’m not willing to do that with the Emini.
以外汇为生
无论如何，我在外汇课程中讲了所有这些东西，我确实认为交易者可以专门交易外汇市场来谋生。我也认为他们可以交易五分钟图，并且做得很好，尽管我认为由于买卖价差和图表不太可靠的问题，我认为大多数交易者最好还是看看60分钟图、一小时或两小时图、四小时图、日线图。然而，如果你一整天都在观察，五分钟图上也有很多好的交易机会。例如，我们开始看到这个并说“等一下，回调都很小。它们只有一根一根的。Al称之为小回调牛市。我们要涨了”，所以你就随便买任何理由的任何点位，把止损放在这里，然后看它能涨多远。每天，在外汇市场上都有这样的事情发生，所以我真的认为一个日内交易者可以做得很好。然而，正如我所说，在平均情况下，在外汇市场上有更少的日内交易——比Emini少得多。当然更少的短线。
好吧，我没力气了，但是我只是试着解释一下我继续进行外汇课程的理由，并且希望外汇交易者觉得它非常有用。我相当有信心他们会这样认为。好吧，希望大家晚安。
Trading Forex for a living
Anyway, I talk about all of this stuff in the Forex course, and I do think traders can trade the Forex markets exclusively for a living. I do think they can trade the five-minute chart and do it as well, although I think because of the issues with bid-ask spreads and the charts not being as reliable, I think most traders are better off looking to trade 60-minute charts, one or two-hour charts, four-hour charts, daily charts. However, if you’re watching all day long, there are a lot of good trading opportunities on the five-minute charts as well. For example, we start seeing this and say “Wait a minute, the pullbacks are all really small. They’re only one bar one. Al calls this a small pullback bull trend. We’re going higher,” so you just buy for any reason at any point, put a stop down here, and just see how far it goes. And every day, there are things like that in the Forex markets, so I really do think a day trader can do very well. However, as I said, there are fewer day trades, I think, in the Forex market on average — far fewer than there are in the Emini. Certainly far fewer scalps.
Okay, I’m out of energy, but I’m just trying to explain my rationale for going ahead with the Forex course, and I’m hoping that Forex traders find it really useful. I’m pretty confident that they will. All right, hope that everybody has a good night.