Category:70PCP

In Trend

In Trading Range

Others

Breakout

• If a bar is exceptionally bigger than other bars(i.e. surprise bar), 70% chance of MM, especially when it has ok FT (at least doji).
• After 2 or more consecutive big bull bars closing on their highs, and with little overlap, there is 70% chance of at least a MM up^[1].
• If bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of Triangle^[2].
• 75% chance the BO above a Bull Channel fails within the next 5 bars.

• Probability of success of 70% or better (reward has to be at least half as big as risk just to break even):
  • Scalps, but since most traders cannot consistently pick trades with a 70 percent chance of success, they should trade a scalp only if the reward is at least as large as the risk. For example, if you believe that a two-point stop is needed in the Emini, take the trade only if at least a two-point reward is reasonable^[3].

Day Structure

• 70% outside down days closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only 20% closes above middle point^[4].

Gap

In bull case:

• When big gap down, 75% chance trending trading range day.
• When big gap down, 70% chance of swing down after 10am.

Yesterday

• If yesterday was climactic, there is 75% chance of trading range for a few hours today.