交易手册：使用指标进行交易的必然愚蠢
Source：The surefire folly of trading with Technical Analysis Indicators
Whenever a trader begins his quest to learn how to make money, he naturally looks for information. Ads and websites are reasonable resources. He will invariably find many that are extremely professional and showcase lots of technical analysis indicators. He then concludes that complicated computer screens with lots of quote screens and charts filled with indicators are an inescapable necessity.
However, if he instead listens to professional traders on television, he never hears anything about indicators. Instead, he only hears about the market testing its old highs or a trend line. How could these traders ever be making money without all of those indicators? Because most profitable traders have a relatively simple approach. And, it is almost always based on reading price action. They look for support and resistance and watch how the market responds when it gets there.
每当一个交易者开始他学习如何赚钱的任务时，他自然会寻找信息。广告和网站是合理的资源。他总会找到许多非常专业的资源，并展示出大量的技术分析指标。然后他得出结论：复杂的电脑屏幕上充满了行情和图表指标，这是不可避免的必要条件。
然而，如果他反而听取电视上的专业交易员的建议，他从来不会听到任何有关指标的东西。相反，他只会听到市场测试其过去的高点或趋势线的说法。这些交易员怎么可能在没有那些指标的情况下获利呢？因为大多数盈利交易员有一个相对简单的方法。而且，几乎总是基于读取价格行动。他们寻找支撑位和阻力位，并观察市场在到达这些位置时的反应情况。
The importance of support and resistance
During a strong bull breakout, they simply buy at the market and hold until the market gets to resistance, where they take partial or full profits. During a strong bear breakout, they take profits at support.
Beginners are naturally afraid and are looking for protection. They look to gurus and indicators, hoping that these gods will protective them from trading death and lead them to nirvana. What they soon learn is that they still lose money, even when they do exactly what their false gods tell them to do.
How can that be? The experts on television look rich and must be great traders. The technical analysis indicators in the ads must surely be what the professionals use. What they do not realize is that trading is much simpler and the key to success comes from within. Traders simply have to spend a lot of time learning how to find support and resistance and how to structure and manage trades. Everything else is a lie.
支持和阻力的重要性
在强势牛市突破时，他们只是在市场上买入并持有，直到市场达到阻力位时，他们会部分或全部盈利了结。而在在强势熊市突破时，他们会在支撑位获利。
初学者自然会感到恐惧，并寻求保护。他们寄希望于行情大师和指标，希望这些"神明"能保护他们免受交易失败的困扰，并带领他们走向天堂。但他们很快会发现，即使照着这些"神明"说的做，他们仍然会亏钱。
这是怎么回事呢？电视上的专家看起来很富有，一定是很厉害的交易员。广告中的技术分析指标一定是专业交易员所用的。他们没有意识到，交易其实更简单，成功的关键来自内在。交易者只需要花大量的时间学习如何寻找支撑和阻力，以及如何构建和管理交易。其他一切都是谎言。
Do not get addicted to technical analysis indicators
I have never met any successful trader who makes his trading decisions based on lots of charts covered with technical analysis indicators. I believe that the exact opposite is true. Indicators are all derived from price. If you can read price action, why add all of those indicators that only obscure the charts and give you the false hope that they will somehow help you trade better? You are simply trying to find a crutch that you hope will support you until you finally become profitable.
Successful traders take responsibility for their decisions. They do not look for a powerful outside force like a mystical indicator or a trading guru to guide them to financial heaven.
不要沉迷于技术分析指标
我从未见过凭借大量覆盖着技术分析指标图表做交易决策的成功交易者。我相信恰恰相反。指标都是由价格派生出来的。如果你能读懂价格走势，为什么要添加那么多只会模糊图表并给你虚假希望的指标呢？你只是试图找到一个拐杖，希望它能在你最终变得盈利之前支撑着你。
成功的交易者对自己的决策负责。他们不会寻找一个强大的外部力量，比如神秘的指标或交易专家，来引导他们走向财富之路。
Indicators are a bad crutch
Look at the two charts below. The first one looks like it could be in an ad. Lots of colorful indicators, but they make it very difficult to see what you are actually trying to trade. That is the price!
The second one is the same chart, but without indicators except for a 20 bar exponential moving average. Even that is not necessary to trade profitably. I use it because it acts as support and resistance and therefore provides several trades that might not otherwise be evident. This simple chart is how I look at charts when I trade, and most successful traders use something similar.
指标是不可靠的
看下面的两张图表。第一张看起来像是广告。有很多彩色指标，但它们使得你真正想要交易的内容非常难以看清。那就是价格！
第二张图表是相同的，但除了一个20根指数移动平均线之外没有其他指标。即使没有这个指标，也可以盈利进行交易。我使用它是因为它作为支撑和阻力，并且提供了一些可能不明显的交易机会。这张简单的图表是我进行交易时所看的，大多数成功的交易者也会使用类似的方法。
The EURUSD 60 minute Forex chart is lost among the indicators.
Ads and websites want you to believe that you can get rich if you trade a chart that has lots of indicators. More information, more money
EURUSD 60分钟的外汇图表在指标之间迷失了。↵↵广告和网站希望让你相信，如果你交易一个有很多指标的图表，你可以变得富有。更多的信息，更多的钱。
This is the same chart with only a 20 bar exponential moving average. This is how price action traders trade. Don’t hide all of this great information behind lots of indicators! 这是同一个图表，只有20根指数移动平均线。这就是价格行为交易者的交易方式。不要将所有这些重要信息隐藏在大量的指标后面！
Experts focus on price action
Some traders might use tick or volume charts, or one or two indicators, but they all make most of their decisions based on price action. They want to buy at support and sell at resistance.
The best traders are extremely good at understanding the many forms that support and resistance take and how tests look when they are likely to be successful. The stronger the buying pressure (I will discuss this in a later article), the more likely the market will go up. This is true whether it has pulled back to support or rallied to resistance. The stronger the selling pressure, the more likely it will go down.
专业交易员专注于价格走势
一些交易员可能会使用刻度或成交量图表，或者一个或两个指标，但他们大多数的决策都是基于价格走势。他们想要在支撑位买入，在阻力位卖出。
最好的交易员非常擅长理解支撑位和阻力位的多种形式，以及当它们可能成功时的测试样貌。购买压力越强（我将在后续文章中讨论此），市场上涨的可能性越大。无论是回撤至支撑位还是上涨至阻力位，这都是真实的。卖出压力越大，下跌的可能性就越大。
Price is truth
Look at the two charts above and decide which one is more likely going to lead to a profitable trade. One has lots of technical analysis indicators that make the chart extremely difficult to read. Beginners gravitate to charts like that because they are afraid of price. Also, they get constant messages from websites and magazine ads that implicitly tell them that adding lots of indicators will give them the edge needed to beat the other guy.
They know that price is truth and that they cannot yet make money. Hiding the price action is a way of denying the truth, as you will discover as you learn how to trade.
Price action traders prefer the second chart. The signals are clear, but it takes a long time to develop the skill to read the chart as it unfolds and then manage the trade appropriately. There is nothing magical. Learning how to trade successfully is actually quite boring most of the time, but I personally find the waiting to be very peaceful.
价格就是真相
看一下上面的两个图表，然后决定哪一个更有可能导致盈利交易。一个有很多技术分析指标，使图表非常难读。初学者倾向于使用这样的图表，因为他们害怕价格。此外，他们会不断收到来自网站和杂志广告的信息，这些信息暗示他们添加很多指标将为他们提供击败其他人的优势。
他们知道价格就是真相，而他们还不能赚钱。隐藏价格行为是一种否认真相的方式，当您学习如何交易时，您将会发现这一点。
价格行动交易者更喜欢第二个图表。信号是清晰的，但要培养阅读图表并适当管理交易的技巧需要很长时间。没有什么神奇的。成功交易的学习实际上大部分时间都很无聊，但我个人觉得等待是非常平静的。