阿布答疑：我可以跟单赚钱吗？
我记得许多年前，我花费3000美金从一个公司购买了一个交易策略，同时订阅了各种专家的分析频道以及咨询热线，可最后都无疾而终。
你一定也在电视上听到过，某某"专家"说：“黄金价格要涨”、“原油价格要跌”，或者“股市要涨”等等。你以为你掌握了盈利门路，实际上是无法从中获利，因为你经常听到我说：约有10%（强劲趋势）的时候你只能买进或只能卖出。而剩下90%的时间（盘整区间），如果你正确地管理你的交易，你可以在任何时候买进或卖出并获利。
I remember years ago — I forget the name of the company; maybe it was Essex Trading — I paid them $3,000 for formulas. I used to subscribe to all kinds of guru newsletters and hotlines, and a lot of it is just a total waste of money, right?
If you see some clown on television saying, “Gold is going up,” or “Crude oil is going down,” or “The stock market is going up,” you cannot make money off of that because you hear me say this pretty regularly: About 10 percent of the time (in strong trends) you can only make money buying or only make money selling. 90 percent of the time (in trading ranges), you can buy or sell at any point and make money, if you manage your trade correctly.
授人以渔
受人以鱼，不如受人以渔，在交易中也是如此。在你完全能够承担交易中所有责任之前，以交易谋生确实很困难。特别是如果你刚开始，账户不够大，很容易说：“天哪，我真的很绝望，我必须通过交易赚钱。我花了很多时间存下这笔本金。”这些担忧会让你难以两头兼顾。在我看来，非常想挣钱的这些情绪，会让你的更加难在交易中成功。
Teach a man to fish (trade)
You sometimes hear the adage, “You teach a man to fish. You don't give him a fish,” and that's true with trading, right? Until you're completely comfortable taking full responsibility, it's really hard to make a living. And everyone — especially if you're starting out and your account is not big, it's easier to say, “Oh my gosh, I am really desperate. I got to make money doing this. It took me so much time to save up this money. I don't want to lose my other job while I start this job”. There's just a lot of personal issues involved, and I can tell you that I believe it's extremely difficult to make money, if you have to make money.
急于挣钱
越急于挣钱，就越难挣，因为你觉得再不挣到钱，你的生活就要完了。你会因此更容易犯错，而且你只会担心风险。交易有三个变量——风险、回报和概率。一个急于赚钱的人只看到了一个变量：风险。“我承受不起损失”，对吧？一点点亏损，两点点亏损，“我必须退出”，对吧？即使市场可能需要一个比当前止损点高五个点的止损点。
Desperate to make money
If you're really desperate to make money, it's really hard to make money because you're going to be miserable. You're going to make mistakes, and you're going be only worried about risk, and there are three variables — risk, reward, and probability. A person who's desperate to make money only sees one variable: Risk. “I can't afford to lose,” right? One point, two points, “I — I got to get out,” right? Even though the market might call for a stop that's five points above.
只思考窄止损
如果一个人只考虑风险，他们会说，“我知道Al说止损应该放在那里，但是也许我会在这根K线收盘买入，期望市场继续上涨，然后我会放一个一点的止损。” 然后你在下一根K线就止损了。你做了一个非常聪明的交易；你的方向买对了，但你管理不当，因为你只看到了风险，你不想亏超过一点。
Thinking risk only
And if a person's only thinking about risk, they're saying, “Well, I know that's where Al says that's where the stop goes, but maybe I'll buy the Bar 17 close and take a chance that it will just go straight up and I'll put a one-point stop in.” Then you get stopped on Bar 18, and you lost money buying. You made a really smart trade; you know, you bought the market that's probably going up, but you managed it wrong because all you saw was risk and you did not want to lose more than a point.
说太多也会影响我自己交易
回到你刚才的问题。我认为，除非那个带单的老师把它放所有的交易细节都告诉你，否则听别人说的做是不可能赚钱的。为什么我不能把细节都说出来呢？因为我一天要进行太多交易了。如果我要思考如何设止损、缩窄止损、临时决定刮头皮等决策等，还要兼顾讲话，这样太难了，这会导致我极大的亏损。
Talking costs money
But going back to your question. I think it's really impossible to make money listening to somebody else unless they're saying every little thing that they're doing. And I — I can't do it because I take so many trades during the day, and if I'm talking as I'm trying to make a decision about “Do I move the stop here? Do I get out there? Do I just get out with just two ticks? Do I try to hold for two points?” you know, I cannot do both. It will cost me too much money.
小止损高回报
有时候我会做一些技巧性交易，而在这些交易中，存在一些不寻常的情况，其中风险并不是很大，但回报很大。或者实际风险小，初始风险大的交易。我使用宽止损，但是我绝对不会让我的宽止损触发。就实际风险而言，实际风险很小，而回报很大。不知道我这样是否回答了你的问题，但我真的认为依靠祈求上天来保证我们不亏钱是不现实的，我们需要依靠这些策略。你需要的是实践，必须在你开始感到自信能够做到之前积累很多经验。依赖别人手把手带着你做，这样做是行不通的。
Small risk, big reward
Sometimes I'll take finesse trades where there's some unusual situation where the risk is really not all that big and the reward is big. Or the actual risk is not big, the initial risk is big. I'm using a wide stop, but I'm never going to let the stop be hit. In terms of actual risk, the actual risk is small and the reward is big. So I don't know. I hope I'm answering your question, but I really think looking for a God or savior to protect you, so that you don't lose money is not going do it. That's not what you need. What you need is practice and you got to get a lot of trades under your belt before you start feeling comfortable that you can do this. And depending on someone else to hold your hand as you do it, that's just not going to work.
只依靠建仓形态是不够的
我曾经请过一个交易教练。这个人，我偶尔还会在电视上看到他。我觉得他完全是个骗子，25年前我花了3000美元请他来一天。那天他就坐在我旁边，我就这样亏了3000美元。我给他付了3000美元，我输了3000美元。我开始追问他：“你现在和我在一起，不在交易。你每天会去教学吗？你会交易多少天？”最后他说他从来没有交易过，所以他现在教别人如何交易，却不是一个真正的交易者。这个人是骗子，因为他自己不交易。我当时非常绝望，愿意付出任何代价请人教我如何做交易。但是即使那天他教我了1-2个技巧，那还是远远不够的，因为这一点点技巧很可能第二天就不适用了。做一笔交易只看建仓形态是远远不够的。
Not just about setups
I remember I once hired a tutor. The guy, I still see him out there, every now and then, at the shows. I think he's a total fraud, but he's still out there and 25 years ago I paid him, like, $3,000 to come in for the day. And I lost $3,000 with him sitting by my side that day. So I paid him $3,000, I lost $3,000. And I started pressing him, “You're here with me. You're not trading. How many days do you go out and teach? How many days do you trade?” Anyway, what it came down to was he says he never trades, and so here he is teaching people how to trade and he's not a trader. The guy, he was a fraud. The guy's a fraud. He's not in the game. I was desperate, willing to pay anything to get somebody to show me how to do it. But even if he showed me one or two things that day, that still would not have been enough because those two things would not be there tomorrow, or the next day, or the next day. There's a lot more to a trade than just setups.
使用正确的止损或止盈
大家经常听我说 ，大多数情况下，如果你使用正确的止损和止盈目标，做空做多都可以赚钱。当市场处于这种（区间震荡）状态时，这是显而易见的，对吧？。你可以在任何K线下方做多，任何K线上方做空，直接刮头皮下去。很多时候你懂得这样做，这不需要听别人说，"在这里多"或者“这里做空。”
Use correct stop and targets
In fact, you hear me regularly say — most of the time, if you use a correct stop and a profit target, you can make money buying or selling. It's obvious when the market is like this, right? You can buy or sell. You can buy below anything, sell above anything, and just keep scalping. But most of the time you can do that so you don't need someone to say, “Oh Al, buy this,” or “Al, Al, sell that.”
交易真的很简单！
交易并不像想象中那么复杂。我的建议是，如果我告诉你止损点在某个位置，而你认为这个位置风险太大，那么就不要做这笔交易。但如果你决定要做，那么就设置好止损点。如果你能认真考虑交易并设定正确的止损点，你就有可能赚到钱。即使你冒一定的风险，但也不应该让风险大于你的收益。如果你能交易足够小的仓位，不害怕止损，然后再设置合理的止损，交易对你来说也会简单许多。
Trading is easy, really!
Trading is really not that complicated and I think traders learn — if you just listen to me during the day, I'm telling you the stop goes here, and you say, “Well, I don't want to risk that much.” Well, don't take the trade, but if you're going to take the trade, that's where the stop goes. And if at the end of the day you sit down and listen to what I'm saying, you'll say, “Hey, wait a minute, what Al said made sense. You know, if I did buy there and if I did put that stop there or if I did sell there and I did put that stop there, I would have made money.” I have to risk more than I wanted to risk, but I would have made money. So if you can trade small enough, you can do it. It's much easier to make money if you can trade small, and use the correct stops, and not worry about losing.