交易手册：价格行为与蜡烛图

https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/how-to-trade-manual/candlestick-charts/

价格行为与蜡烛图

Most successful traders use candlestick charts to make their money. In addition, they trade primarily or exclusively using price action. Although there is no universally accepted definition of price action, I use the broadest one. I say that it is simply any move up or down on any chart for any market.

The smallest move that any market makes is one tick (one pip for the Forex markets, although pips are now often subdivided into tenths, which most traders ignore). If a market moves up one tick, it is because there are not enough sellers at the current price to fill all of the buy orders. The market has to go higher to find more sellers. If it falls one tick, it means that it is in search of a price low enough so that there will be enough buyers to take the other side of the bears.

日本蜡烛图受非常多成功的交易者的青睐，他们使用其进行交易，并与价格行为相配合。由于"价格行为"没有一个受到大众一致认同的定义，在这里我们就使用被大家所最广泛接受的定义。简单地说，价格行为就是任何市场、任何图表上价格的上涨或下跌。

任何市场能够做出的最小波动是一个tick（对于外汇市场是一个pip，虽然pip现在通常被细分为十分之一，但大多数交易者忽略这些）。如果市场上涨了一个tick，那是因为当前价格的卖家不足以填补所有的买单。市场必须走得更高才能找到更多的卖家。反之，如果它下跌一个tick，那就意味着它正在寻找足够低的价格，以便有足够的买家来接受卖盘。

Keep focused on the goal of making money

As a day trader, I don’t think about anything other than whether the market will go up far enough for me to make a profit if I buy or fall far enough to make a profit if I short. I make several assumptions that allow me to not worry about anything other than price action . It is impossible for me to know if my assumptions are true, but they are consistent with the price action. If I later conclude that I am wrong, I will then change my assumptions.

I have watched and traded a 5 minute candlestick chart during 99% of every day for over 30 years. However, I also make some trades based on the 60 minute, daily, weekly, and monthly charts. I use options most of the time when I trade those higher time frames. But, I use the same price action techniques that I do when I trade 5 minute charts.

始终专注于一个目标——赚钱

我作为一名日内交易者，我只关心市场是否能够上涨到足以让我在买入时获利或者下跌到足以让我在卖出时获利。我做了一些假设，使我只需要关注价格行为而不担心其他事情。我无法确定这些假设是否正确，但它们与价格行为一致。如果我后来发现自己错了，我就会改变我的假设。

我观察和交易5分钟K线图已经超过30年了，几乎每天99%的时间都在观察和交易。然而，我也会根据60分钟、日线、周线和月线图表做一些交易，在交易这些较高的时间框架时，我大多数时候会使用期权，但是，我使用的价格行为技巧和我交易5分钟K线图时一样。

The lure of candlestick chart patterns

When you look at websites that offer advice on trading, they glorify candlestick patterns and all kinds of rules with Japanese names. However, when you watch professional traders on television, you will notice something entirely different. They virtually totally ignore candlestick patterns. In addition, they often buy at the bottom of a strong bear candle or candle pattern and sell at the top of a very bullish pattern.

Why is that? Because they want to make money. If candlestick patterns were anywhere near as good as many trading websites make them appear, they would quickly stop working. This is because no institution would take the other side of the trade.

If a pattern is good for you, then it is bad for the guy taking the other side, and institutions cannot stay in business if they consistently lose. The only logical conclusion is that most of what you read about candlestick patterns is nonsense. The institutions control the market. They ignore all of what is on those helpful “Trading Made Simple” candlestick websites.

诱惑人们的蜡烛图形态

当你浏览那些充满各种交易建议的网站时，会发现他们把蜡烛图形态和所有带有日语名字的规则捧得高高在上，但是，当你看电视上的专业交易员时，你会发现他们完全不同，他们几乎完全忽略蜡烛图形态，此外，他们经常在一根代表强劲卖压的K线或一个卖出蜡烛图形态底部买入，并在一根代表强劲买压的买入信号K线顶部卖出。

为什么会这样呢？因为他们想要赚钱。如果蜡烛图形态像许多交易网站所描述的那样好用，那么它们很快就会失效，这是因为没有机构愿意站在交易的另一边。

如果一个形态对你有利，那么对于另一方^{（交易对手方）}而言就是不利的，如果机构一直输钱，他们就无法维持自身业务。唯一的合理结论是，大部分关于蜡烛图形态的描述都是无意义的。机构控制市场。他们忽略了所有那些所谓的“交易简单化”蜡烛图形态网站上的内容。

Setups and Signals

Much of what you read about candle bar signals implies that knowing a collection of candlestick patterns is 90% of what is required to learn how to trade online. It is not. A setup is composed of two things, a signal and context. Without both, you should not take a trade.

By context, I mean all of the bars to the left have to be supportive of your trade. A perfect candlestick pattern in the middle of a tight trading range will consistently lose money. You need other reasons for taking the trade, like the market being at a confluence of support or resistance. I discuss this in detail in the course.

形态与信号

在很多有关蜡烛图的文章中，很多人会误以为了解一系列的蜡烛图形态就可以掌握网上交易的90%技能，但事实并非如此。一个完美的蜡烛图形态出现在一个狭窄的交易区间中时，却往往会导致交易亏损。因为一个完美的交易形态由两个要素组成，即入场信号以及当时的形势。两者缺一不可，缺少任何一方都不应该进行交易。

所谓“形势”，指的是你交易的图表左侧所有K线的运行趋势都支持你的交易方向。在窄幅交易区间中出现的完美蜡烛图形态，却依然会导致你亏损的。为什么呢？其原因很简单：你没有考虑到当时的形势是一个窄幅的区间。你还需要其他的理由来进行交易，比如市场正在处于支撑或阻力的交汇处，我在课程中详细讨论了这一点。