交易手册：基本面交易的愚昧

Source: The folly of trading fundamentals

So, who uses fundamental information when trading? It only can benefit investors, who hold positions for months at a time. Although you often hear traders on television mention fundamentals when they place trades lasting for a few days, they do not realize that they erroneously believe that the fundamentals improve their profitability. The fundamentals do not help traders make money, but traders often mention them because of tradition on Wall Street. They are afraid that their peers might respect them less for being purely technical traders.

谁在交易时使用基本面的信息？只有那些持仓数月的投资者才能从中受益。尽管你经常听到电视上的交易员对于持仓数日的交易时提到基本面，但他们没有意识到，他们错误地认为基本面可以提高他们的盈利能力。基本面不会帮助交易者赚钱，但交易者经常提到它们是因为在华尔街的传统，他们担心同行会因为他们纯粹是技术交易者而失去尊重。

Never be ashamed to be a day trader

To me, this is foolish, just as it is foolish to be ashamed to be a day trader. When people ask me what I do for a living, I look at them straight in the eye and tell them I am a day trader, and my confident stare dares them to say something disrespectful.

Technical trading was disparaged for generations and is slowly being accepted as a very profitable way to trade. Most High Frequency Trading (HFT) firms use technical information exclusively, and many are making fortunes. This has gone a long way in making the Street and the public accept the proposition that technical trading can be profitable long term. However, HFT trading is done by computers, and there is still resistance to the idea that many traders can trade profitably manually using technicals alone.

永远不要因为成为一名日内交易者而感到羞愧

对我来说，他们这样的想法愚蠢至极，就像为成为日间交易员而感到羞耻一样愚蠢。当人们问我做什么为生时，我会直视着他们，告诉他们我是日间交易员，我自信的凝视促使他们不敢表现出不敬。

上几代人都在贬低技术交易，现在慢慢被接受为一种非常有利润的交易方式。大多数高频交易公司仅使用技术信息，并且许多公司也因而赚了很多钱。这在使华尔街和公众接受技术交易可以长期获利方面已经取得了很大的进步。但是，高频交易还是被电脑所操控，而且圈内未能完全接受交易员仅使用技术手动交易的想法。

Most traders get out within a few days

The reality is that almost all profitable traders who hold their positions for only a few days or less are making their decisions entirely based on price action, even though most do not realize it. They want to be seen as mainstream members of the Street, where all of the firms are still dominated by a fundamental mindset, and feel compelled to find a fundamental reason to support their trade.

Over time, this tendency will disappear and traders will feel free to admit to themselves and to their friends that they are getting rich from price action trading alone, and that fundamentals do not improve their profitability at all.

I am a day trader and am out of most trades within 15 minutes to an hour, and this means that fundamentals are totally useless for me. Fundamentals ultimately control the direction of any market over the course of months to years, but their impact on markets is far less clear than what the public believes.

大多数交易员在几天内平仓

几乎所有仅持有几天或更短时间持仓的交易者都完全基于价格行为做出决策，虽然大多数人没有意识到这一点。他们想被视为华尔街主流的一份子，而在华尔街使用基本面交易的风气依然根深蒂固，所以这些公司因而感到有必要找到一个基本面的理由来支持他们的交易。

随着时间的推移，这种风气将会逐渐消失，交易者将可以大胆地承认他们从单纯的价格行为交易中获得了显著的财富，而且基本面并没有改善他们的盈利能力。

我是一名日内交易者，在15分钟至1小时内就退出了大部分交易，这意味着基本面对我来说完全没有用处。基本面最终控制任何市场在数月至数年的时间内的大方向，但它们对市场的影响远不如公众所认为的那样明显。

Fundamentals are useless to a trader

I strongly agree with Nobel Prize laureate, Bob Shiller, who says, “The whole idea that the stock market reflects fundamentals is, I think, wrong. It really reflects psychology. The aggregate stock market reflects psychology more than fundamentals.”

If JPM is a better bank than a competitor, it is worth relatively more. In simplest terms, its stock will usually have a higher price per dollar of earnings. However, if the overall economy is falling apart, its P/E ratio will fall, meaning that its price will fall, even if its earnings are good. So, what should its price be? No one ever knows, but investors will likely pay more per dollar of earnings than they would for a bank of lesser quality. That is pretty much the extent of the impact of fundamentals, other than an occasional news event.

The fundamentals have nothing to do with the actual price of anything, only with the relative price, and even then, their effect is too non-specific to be of any value to a trader, who will hold a position for minutes to a few days.

基本面对交易者毫无用处。

我完全同意诺贝尔奖得主鲍勃·席勒的观点：“‘股市反映基本面’这一整个想法是错误的。它反映的是市场的心理状态。总体上股市反映了心理状态还是胜过于基本面。”

如果摩根大通比竞争对手更好，那么摩根大通就有相对更高的价值。简单来说，它的股票通常会有更高的市盈率。然而，如果整个经济正在崩溃，它的市盈率将会下降，这意味着即使其收益良好，其价格也会下降。那么它的价格应该是多少呢？没有人知道，但比起质量较差的银行，投资者很可能还是会为摩根大通买单。这就是基本面的影响，除了偶尔发生的新闻事件之外。

基本面与任何实际价格无关，只与相对价格有关。即使如此，它也对于一个持仓数分钟到几天的交易者没有任何价值。

Price action is more reliable

I think that traders should never pay any attention to the fundamentals or the news because neither can fully be understood, whereas the price action is undeniable. That is, to traders who know how to read it. If more dollars want to buy, the price will increase and anyone can see it on the chart. It does not matter if the fundamentals, news, or experts on TV say it should go down. BUY!!!

This question comes up regularly, and my simplest answer is that I trade currency futures and Forex foreign exchange markets entirely on the basis of price action and have no interest in the fundamentals.

价格行为更可靠。

我认为交易者永远不应该关注基本面或新闻，因为二者都无法被完全理解，而价格行为是不可否认的，至少对于知道如何诠释价格行为的交易者来说确实是这样的。如果更多的人想要入场，价格将会上涨，任何人都可以在图表上看到它，即使基本面、新闻或电视上的专家说它应该下跌，你也不必在乎。你必须做的就是买入！！！

我常有人问我相似的问题，而我最简单的答案是，我完全基于价格行为交易货币期货和外汇市场，对基本面毫无兴趣。

Trader or investor?

This is a good place to discuss the difference between a trader and an investor. A trader is looking for fast money. If he is a day trader, he is looking to exit within minutes to a few hours. If he is trading daily charts, he is looking to get out in a day to a week or so. How to trade as an investor? An investor is much more inclined to pay attention to fundamentals and is planning on holding a position for many months or even years. For example, he might buy GOOG because he thinks it has great management and a strong balance sheet.

Fundamentals ultimately control the direction of any market, but their effect is over the course of months, not days. Although you will hear traders talk about fundamentals, once you learn how to trade, you might come to agree with me that they are not important to a trader.

交易员还是投资者？

这是讨论交易者和投资者之间差异的好机会。交易者寻求的是快钱。如果一个人是日间交易者，他在几分钟到几小时内就会退出。如果一个人在交易日线图，他会在一天到一周左右离场。作为投资者如何交易？投资者更加注重基本面，并计划持仓多个月甚至几年。例如，他可能购买GOOG是因为他认为它有很好的管理和强大的资产负债表。

最终还是基本面在控制任何市场的方向，但它们的影响是在几个月而不是几天内。虽然你会听到交易者讨论基本面，但一旦你学会了如何交易，你可能会认同我它们对交易者并不重要。

News can have a brief effect

There is an occasional news item that can move the market for a few days, but almost all moves less than a week in duration are based on price action. The market is constantly racing to support or resistance, where the market either breaks out or reverses. I believe that this is the concept that almost all profitable traders use to make their money, and you will probably agree as you learn more about how to trade online.

One more point about fundamentals. They are far less clear than what the pundits on television would like you to believe. The movement on the chart tells you how to trade. It tells you whether more money sees the news as bullish or bearish, and this is much more important than the analysis by either a bull or bear on TV. The market is usually extremely well-balanced between buyers and sellers, resulting in almost constant confusion, and therefore a very small edge for even the best traders.

新闻可能只会产生短暂的影响。

有时会有一些新闻报道推动市场数日，但几乎所有持续少于一周的波动都是基于价格行为的。市场不断地往支撑或阻力位冲刺，市场要么突破要么反转。我认为这是几乎所有盈利交易者用来赚钱的概念，随着你对如何进行交易的了解增加，你可能会开始同意这一点。

关于基本面的另一个要点是，它们并不像电视上的专家们所希望的那样清晰。图表上的波动告诉你如何交易，它告诉你更多的资金是认为某新闻会导致市场看涨还是看跌，这比电视上的多头或空头分析还更重要。市场通常在买家和卖家之间极度平衡，导致持续不断的混淆，因此即使是最好的交易者也只有非常小的优势。

Perfect trades cannot exist

Have you ever waited for that perfect trade? If you did, you are probably still waiting because what you soon discover is that no setup is quite good enough. There is an institutional buyer and an institutional seller at every tick on every chart. One side believes the market if going up and the other thinks it will go down.

Except during the 10% of the time when the market is breaking out strongly, the market is very balanced between the bulls and the bears. When CNBC puts on that bullish analyst, it is easy to conclude that the market has to go up. Well, a bear sold to that bull, and he is probably every bit as smart as the bull, yet you only get to hear one side. You have to remember that there is always an opposite side, and that is why there is a market. Both sides need each other to achieve their goals of either buying or selling.

完美的交易不存在

你曾经等待过完美的交易机会吗？如果是，那你可能仍在等待，因为你很快会发现没有任何一个形势足以满足所有条件。每张图上的每个点都有来自机构的多头与空头：其中一方认为市场会上涨，而另一方则认为它会下跌。

除了在10％的时候市场处于强劲突破，其余的时候市场在看跌和看涨之间都非常平衡。当CNBC播放那些看涨的分析时，很容易得出结论市场必须上涨。然而，有个卖方卖给了这个买家，他可能和买家一样聪明，但你只能听到一面。你需要记住这里总有相反的一方，这也就是为什么市场可以存在的原因。双方都需要彼此才能实现他们买或卖的目标。

Fundamentals are complex

Also, the fundamentals are far more complex than what television portrays, and most institutions know them before they make the news. They are already factored into the current price and you are deluded if you think that you or any pundit on TV can predict the movement over the next few days because of some profound insight into the fundamentals. If it is important, the institutions have already entered and you are entering late. They are already placing trades based on tomorrows news!

Also, if the Yen currency futures or Forex is falling, it is too simplistic to say that it is because of Japan printing money. That might be a big part of the reason, at least initially, but many institutional traders around the world are placing trades based on many other fundamental reasons that are impossible for you to ever know.

Saudi Arabia might own a lot of Yen, but now thinks that the US economy is becoming strong. They might sell their Yen to buy American stocks. A bank in Europe might sell much of the Yen it might be holding because it has to pay a huge fine to the government, and the fine has to be paid in Euros. Many of the new shorts are simply momentum traders who are selling because the trend is down, and they have no interest in the reason why the Yen is falling. I believe that worrying about fundamentals is not how to trade.

基本面是复杂的。

此外，基本面远比电视所描绘的要更复杂，大多数机构在新闻发布前就已经掌握了它们，它们已经与当前价格被纳入了考量之中。如果你认为你或电视上的任何专家可以通过对基本面的深刻洞察而预测未来几天的市场走势，那你就是被蒙蔽了。如果它很重要，机构早就已经进入市场了，而你则是进入得太晚。他们早已经根据明天的新闻来进行交易了！

此外，如果日元货币期货或外汇下跌，如果说这是因为日本印刷了货币，是个过于草率的解释。那可能是原因中的一大部分，至少最初是这样，但全球许多交易机构根据很多不可能为你所知的基本面原因进行交易。

沙特阿拉伯可能拥有大量日元，但现在大家都认为美国经济正在蓬勃发展，他们可能会出售日元购买美国股票。欧洲的一家银行可能会出售它持有的大部分日元，因为该行必须向政府支付巨额罚款，而该罚款必须用欧元支付。许多新的空头只是动量交易者根据市场趋势而做空，他们并不关心日元下跌的原因。我认为过分担心基本面并不是进行交易的正确方式。

Nobody believes that traders make money from fundamentals

In 2012, CNBC had a television show called Money in Motion and it dealt with Forex foreign exchange online trading. They discussed every trade in terms of both the fundamentals and technical analysis (the price action), but only placed trades in the direction of the trend and almost always at support or resistance. Most of the trades were pullback entries with a reward of about twice the risk.

In my Brooks Trading Course videos, I discuss the mathematics of why most traders should only take trades where the reward it at least twice the risk, so regardless of the fundamentals, they were recommending reasonable price action trades and mathematically sound trade management.

These television traders would make some professorial comment about their profound understanding of the fundamentals, but it was total nonsense. What they argued was similar to what traders say when they trade with lots of indicators.

For example, a trader might say, “There is a stochastics divergence and therefore I am buying.” Strong trends have an endless stream of divergences and profitable traders would never bet on a reversal based on an indicator alone. In fact, I believe that all profitable traders trade mostly, if not exclusively, based on price action, even though many argue that they are also basing their decisions additionally on fundamentals or indicators.

If you listen carefully to what they are saying, they invariably tell you that they will not take the trade unless the price action supports what they are doing, and every trade is in the direction of the trend, and based on support or resistance. They then force their discussion of the fundamentals to fit what they are going to do regardless of the fundamentals, and their trading is really based entirely on the price action. This means that the fundamentals are entirely irrelevant to what they are doing. The same is true of indicators. Successful traders will only trade if the price action makes sense, regardless of what indicators or fundamentals show.

Are the Forex markets special in some way, like so many ads for Forex brokerage accounts make it appear? Not at all. Simply look at the three charts in the previous section and ask yourself if can tell which is the EURUSD. I am certain that you cannot, and therefore you will see that the price action in all markets is the same.

I mention in the course that I believe that charts are genetically based since each is simply a representation of human behavior. If you become skilled at reading what the charts are telling you, you will have an edge, which you need to trade profitably. I do not believe that fundamentals give a trader any edge at all.

没有人相信交易员从基本面上赚钱。

2012年，CNBC有一档叫做Money in Motion的电视节目，主要涉及外汇交易。他们会讨论每一笔交易的基本面和技术面（价格行为），但只会在趋势上涨时进行交易，几乎总是在支撑位或阻力位进场，而大多数交易都是回撤进场，回报风险比约为2:1。在我的Brooks Trading Course 视频教程中，我讲解了大多数交易者为什么应该只进行回报至少两倍于风险的交易。因此，无论基本面如何，他们都是在推荐合理的价格行为交易和数学上合理的交易管理方法。这些电视交易员可能会发表一些关于他们对基本面的深刻理解的专业意见，但这完全是无稽之谈。他们的论点类似于交易者在使用许多指标进行交易时所说的话。

例如，一个交易者可能会说：“出现随机震荡背离（Stochastics Divergence），因此我要加仓。”强劲的趋势有无尽的背离，可以持续盈利的交易者永远不会仅仅根据指标来进行反转。事实上，我认为所有可以持续盈利的交易者，即使许多人认为他们也基于基本面或指标等进行决策，但他们大部分交易仍是基于价格行为。

如果你仔细听他们说的话，你会发现他们无一例外地在告诉你，除非价格行为支持他们正在做的事情，否则他们不会进场，而且每一笔交易都是在趋势方向上进行的，并基于支撑或阻力位。然后他们会硬拗他们的基本面理论，以迎合他们无论基本面如何都必需要做的事情，而他们的交易基本上还是完全基于价格行为。这意味着基本面与他们所做的事情完全无关，而指标也是一样。成功的交易者只会在价格行为合理的情况下进行交易，而不管指标或基本面显示什么。

外汇市场是否有某种特殊之处，就像许多外汇券商的广告所显示的那样？完全没有。只要看看前一节中的三张图表，问问自己能否告诉哪一个是欧元/美元，我相信你做不到这一点，因此你会理解所有市场的价格行为都是一样的。

我在课程中也提到，我认为图表上的价格行为是遗传基因决定的，因为每个图表都只是人类行为的一种表现形式。如果你在诠释图表这方面技能娴熟，你就会有优势，这是你持续盈利所需要的，我并不认为基本面会给交易者带来任何有利的优势。

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