Category:70PCP：修订间差异

2024年5月2日 (四) 11:03的版本

75% chance the BO above a Bull Channel fails within the next 5 bars.
If a bar is exceptionally bigger than other bars(i.e. surprise bar), 70% chance of MM, especially when it has ok FT (at least doji).
After 2 or more consecutive big bull bars closing on their highs, and with little overlap, there is 70% chance of at least a MM up^[1].
If bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of triangle^[2].

70% outside down days closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only 20% closes above middle point^[3].

In bull case:

If yesterday was climactic, there is 75% chance of trading range for a few hours today.

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 *After '''2 or more''' consecutive '''big bull bars''' closing on their highs, and with '''little overlap''', there is 70% chance of at least a MM up<ref>''Course 49A''</ref>.
 *If bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of triangle<ref>[[Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High|''Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High'']]</ref>.
-*Probability of success of 70% or better (reward has to be '''at least half as big as risk''' just to break even):
-**Scalps, but since most traders cannot consistently pick trades with a 70 percent chance of success, they should trade a scalp only if the reward is at least as large as the risk. '''For example, if you believe that a two-point stop is needed in the Emini, take the trade only if at least a two-point reward is reasonable'''<ref>TR book, chapter 25</ref>.
 === Day Structure ===