Category:BGD：修订间差异

Big Gap Down, should be looked as a big BRBCL, i.e. a strong bear BO. 80% chance of at least one reversal^[1] in the first hour. The bears want a double top or wedge top on a pullback to near the EMA. The bulls want a double bottom or wedge bottom for an early low of the day. When there is a BGD, odds favor bears:

• 80%: 85% chance of PB in first 2 hours. 80% chance of at least one reversal attempt in the first hour. (i.e. some kind of TR on the open).
• 70%: 75% chance trending TR day. 70% chance swing down after 1pm ET.
• 60%: 65% chance the gap will not close today. 60% chance of swing down in 1st hour.
• if instead it is going up, often pulls back 50% in wedge bull channel.

Worth to mention, if the gap down is overly big, i.e. a HGD, it increases chance of TRO that lasts a couple hours since it might take that long to get near EMA^[2]. Generally, a big gap is a gap that is around the half of the daily range, a huge gap is a gap that is bigger than the daily range.

80% of days: 4 common outcomes after BGD[编辑 | 编辑源代码]

20% of days: Trend from the open[编辑 | 编辑源代码]

• BRTFO
• BLTFO