Category:70PCP：修订间差异
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=== Breakout === | === Breakout === | ||
*If a bar is '''exceptionally''' '''bigger''' than other bars(i.e. surprise bar), 70% chance of MM, especially when it has ok FT (at least doji). | *75% chance the BO above a [[Bull Channel|Bull '''Channel''']] fails within the '''next 5 bars'''. | ||
*If a bar is '''exceptionally''' '''bigger''' than other bars(i.e. surprise bar), 70% chance of [[MM]], especially when it has ok FT (at least doji). | |||
*After '''2 or more''' consecutive '''big bull bars''' closing on their highs, and with '''little overlap''', there is 70% chance of at least a MM up<ref>''Course 49A''</ref>. | *After '''2 or more''' consecutive '''big bull bars''' closing on their highs, and with '''little overlap''', there is 70% chance of at least a MM up<ref>''Course 49A''</ref>. | ||
*If bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of | *If bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of triangle<ref>[[Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High|''Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High'']]</ref>. | ||
*Probability of success of 70% or better (reward has to be '''at least half as big as risk''' just to break even): | *Probability of success of 70% or better (reward has to be '''at least half as big as risk''' just to break even): | ||
2024年5月2日 (四) 11:03的版本
In Trend[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
In Trading Range[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
Others[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
Breakout[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
- 75% chance the BO above a Bull Channel fails within the next 5 bars.
- If a bar is exceptionally bigger than other bars(i.e. surprise bar), 70% chance of MM, especially when it has ok FT (at least doji).
- After 2 or more consecutive big bull bars closing on their highs, and with little overlap, there is 70% chance of at least a MM up[1].
- If bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of triangle[2].
- Probability of success of 70% or better (reward has to be at least half as big as risk just to break even):
- Scalps, but since most traders cannot consistently pick trades with a 70 percent chance of success, they should trade a scalp only if the reward is at least as large as the risk. For example, if you believe that a two-point stop is needed in the Emini, take the trade only if at least a two-point reward is reasonable[3].
Day Structure[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
- 70% outside down days closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only 20% closes above middle point[4].
Gap[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
In bull case:
- When big gap down, 75% chance trending trading range day.
- When big gap down, 70% chance of swing down after 10am.
Yesterday[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
- If yesterday was climactic, there is 75% chance of trading range for a few hours today.
- ↑ Course 49A
- ↑ Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High
- ↑ TR book, chapter 25
- ↑ https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/
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