Category:70PCP：修订间差异

2024年5月2日 (四) 11:08的最新版本

In Trend[编辑 | 编辑源代码]

In Trading Range[编辑 | 编辑源代码]

Others[编辑 | 编辑源代码]

Gap[编辑 | 编辑源代码]

When big gap down, 75% chance trending trading range day.
When big gap down, 70% chance of swing down after 10am.

Breakout[编辑 | 编辑源代码]

75% chance the BO above a Bull Channel fails within the next 5 bars.
If a bar is exceptionally bigger than other bars(i.e. surprise bar), 70% chance of MM, especially when it has ok FT (at least doji).
After 2 or more consecutive big bull bars closing on their highs, and with little overlap, there is 70% chance of at least a MM up^[1].
If bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of triangle^[2].

Day Structure[编辑 | 编辑源代码]

70% outside down days closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only 20% closes above middle point^[3].

If yesterday was climactic (YBX or YSX), there is 75% chance of trading range for a few hours today.

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[1] Course 49A

[2] Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High

[3] https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/

[1]

[2]

[3]

@@ 第4行： / 第4行： @@
 == Others ==
+=== Gap ===
+*When big gap down, 75% chance trending trading range day.
+*When big gap down, 70% chance of swing down after '''10am'''.
 === Breakout ===
-*If a bar is '''exceptionally''' '''bigger''' than other bars(i.e. surprise bar), 70% chance of MM, especially when it has ok FT (at least doji).
+*75% chance the BO above a [[Bull Channel|Bull '''Channel''']] fails within the '''next 5 bars'''.
+*If a bar is '''exceptionally''' '''bigger''' than other bars(i.e. surprise bar), 70% chance of [[MM]], especially when it has ok FT (at least doji).
 *After '''2 or more''' consecutive '''big bull bars''' closing on their highs, and with '''little overlap''', there is 70% chance of at least a MM up<ref>''Course 49A''</ref>.
-*If bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of Triangle<ref>[[Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High|''Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High'']]</ref>.
+*If bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of triangle<ref>[[Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High|''Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High'']]</ref>.
-*75% chance the BO above a [[Bull Channel|Bull '''Channel''']] fails within the '''next 5 bars'''.
-*Probability of success of 70% or better (reward has to be '''at least half as big as risk''' just to break even):
-**Scalps, but since most traders cannot consistently pick trades with a 70 percent chance of success, they should trade a scalp only if the reward is at least as large as the risk. '''For example, if you believe that a two-point stop is needed in the Emini, take the trade only if at least a two-point reward is reasonable'''<ref>TR book, chapter 25</ref>.
 === Day Structure ===
-*70% '''outside down days''' closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only '''20%''' closes above middle point<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/''</ref>.
+*70% '''outside down''' days closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only '''20%''' closes above middle point<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/''</ref>.
-=== Gap ===
-In bull case:
-*When big gap down, 75% chance trending trading range day.
-*When big gap down, 70% chance of swing down after '''10am'''.
-=== Yesterday ===
+*If '''yesterday was climactic''' ([[YBX]] or [[YSX]]), there is 75% chance of '''trading range for a few hours today'''.
-*If yesterday was climactic, there is 75% chance of trading range for a few hours today.
 <references />
-[[Category:PCP]]
+[[Category:PCP|%70]]