交易手册：新手应以停损单入场

ffSource: Beginners should enter with stop orders

Beginners should only enter with stop orders. He often waits for many bars before he finally finds a trade that he is confident will make him money. He very often then watches the market reverse quickly and stop him out, and it occurs to him that he would have made a profit had he done the exact opposite of his trade.

Over time, he comes to accept that it is important to respect the institution taking the other side of every trade because 40-60% of the time, that institution will win and he will lose. That is the nature of trading. During strong breakouts, the probability of continuation can be 70% or higher, but the stop is then far away.

Remember, there always has to be a reason for an institution to take the other side. If you have high probability, then it has a big reward relative to risk. Other than during strong breakouts, the probability that the market will move 10 ticks (or any number) up before going down 10 ticks is between 40 and 60% (“the 40 – 60 rule”). If he always goes for a reward that is at least twice as big as his risk, he will have a positive Trader’s Equation. This means that he will make money over time if he manages his trades correctly.

初学者只应使用止损单进入市场。他经常等待很多K线之后才找到一个他有信心能赚钱的交易机会。然后，他发现市场很经常迅速反转并止损出局，同时意识到如果他完全相反地进行交易，他本来可以获得利润。

随着失败的增加，初学者开始不得不尊重与对手盘（机构）的重要性，因为在40-60%的时间里，对手盘（机构）会赢而他会输。这就是交易的本质。在强烈突破时，延续的可能性可以达到70%或更高，但此时的止损位置需离得很远。

记住，机构为何选择与你对立的一方必须有合理的理由。如果有高概率，那么相对于风险来说，回报将很大。除了在强烈突破时，市场在下跌之前先上涨10个点（或任何数字）的概率在40%至60%之间（“40-60法则”）。如果你总是追求回报至少是风险的两倍，那你交易的数学优势就是正向的。这意味着，如果正确管理交易，他将长期获利。

注：2盈亏比的胜率通常是40%，剩下的60%亏损则是通过订单管理减小风险。

Either stop order market or limit order market

In general, traders should look at any market as either a stop entry type of market or a limit order type of market. Also, traders should assume that every limit order is the opposite side of a stop order. If you buy on a stop at one tick above the high of the prior bar, you should assume that the institution taking the other side entered with a limit order.

If you shorted with a limit order at the high of the prior bar, you should assume that the institution that bought the other side of your trade entered with a stop order. Obviously, you never know who took the other side of your trade or how or why they did, but it does not matter. As a trader, you should look at every breakout, even a breakout above or below the prior bar, as likely to succeed or fail.

止损单与限价单

一般来说，交易者应将市场视为止损单类型的市场或限价单类型的市场。此外，交易者应假设每个限价挂单都是一种止损委托的对手盘。如果你在前一根K线高1 tick的价格止损单买入，你应该假设与你的对手盘机构是通过限价单做空。

如果你以限价单在前一根K线的高点做空，你应该假设与你交易的机构是通过止损委托入场的。显然，你永远不会知道是谁接受了你交易的对方，或者他们是如何以及为什么这样做的，但这并不重要。作为交易者，你应该将每次突破，即使是突破前一根K线的高点或低点，视为有可能成功或失败的。

The entry bar is the bar when you enter a trade and the signal bar is the bar before, which gives you a reason to enter. An ioi pattern and an ii pattern are also signals. Depending on their location, they can sometimes be breakout mode setups, which means that traders will be willing to buy a breakout above or sell a breakout below the patterns.

入场K线是指进入交易时的K线，而信号K线是前一个K线，它给你进入的理由。一个ioi信号k和一个ii信号k。根据它们的位置，它们有时可以成为突破模式的设置，这意味着交易者将愿意在图案上方突破或下方突破时进行买入或卖出。

Beginners should stick to entering with stop orders because the market is then going their way for at least one tick. However, more experienced traders recognize that there are times (like the area in red where the market is in a tight trading range and weak bear channel) when limit orders are more profitable.

They will then switch and buy below bars in the bottom half of a range or channel and scale in lower for scalps, and they will also sell with limit orders above bars in the top half of the range or channel and scale in higher for scalps.

初学者应该坚持使用止损单进行进场，因为市场至少在一个点上是顺着他们的方向走的。然而，更有经验的交易员会意识到有时候（比如红色区域，市场处于紧窄的交易范围和弱势熊市通道），限价订单更具盈利性。

他们会切换策略，在范围或通道底半部分的柱形图下方买入，并在低位逐渐扩大仓位，以赚取小幅利润。同时，他们还会使用限价订单，在范围或通道上半部分的柱形图上方卖出，并在高位逐渐扩大仓位，以赚取小幅利润。

Need to structure sensible trade

Once you have an opinion, if you can structure a trade that makes sense, then you can take the trade. For example, if there is a small bull flag at the top of a trading range, you know that most breakouts fail, and therefore the probability is that the sellers will overpower the buyers at the high of the prior bar.

This means that you can consider shorting with a limit order at the high of the prior bar. A bull might be willing to buy with a stop order above that bar, taking the opposite side of your trade. However, he knows that the probability of his trade is small. He is willing to take it because he also knows that if the breakout succeeds, the rally might go for at least a measured move up, based on the height of the trading range.

The result is that he took a low probability trade (one where he knew that he would probably lose), but since the reward was so much greater than the risk, he knew that the math was still good for him.

需要构建合理的交易

一旦你有了观点，如果你可以构建一个有意义的交易，那么你可以进行这笔交易。例如，如果在交易区间的顶部出现一个小的牛旗形态，你知道大多数突破都会失败，因此很大概率空头会挂限价单在这根信号线上方。

这意味着你也可以考虑在 这跟信号K设立一个限价单进行空头交易。多头可能愿意用一个停损指令在该柱体上方买入，与你的交易形成对立。然而，他知道自己的交易概率很小。他愿意冒险是因为他也知道，如果突破成功，行情可能会至少上涨一个根据交易区间高度一倍。

结果是，他进行了一笔低概率的交易（他知道他很可能会亏损），但由于回报远远超过风险，他知道数学仍然对他有利。

Beginning traders should enter with stop orders, for example, buying one tick above the high of the signal bar on a stop.

初学者交易者应该使用止损单进行交易，例如，在一个止损单上，以信号k的高一个跳点的位置挂单。

High probability is easier to manage

Although the math is good for either side of the trade, high probability trades are easier to manage. This is because low probability trades often look bad for many bars after entry, and the trader is constantly tempted to exit. If he exits too many before they reach their targets, he will not get those infrequent big wins that are needed to offset his frequent small losses, and he will lose money.

The high probability side is easier to manage because, by definition, you will probably make money on every trade. This means that you can mess up occasional trades and still end up profitable over time. This obviously sounds great, but it is not easy.

Remember, there has to be something in it for the other side. If you get high probability, he gets big reward relative to risk. This means that you get small reward relative to your risk. In the EURUSD, if you are buying a strong breakout on the 5 minute chart and you enter on the fourth bar of the breakout, your stop is below the low of this four bar rally, which might be 50 pips (ticks) away.

Also, since you are entering late, the profit that remains in the trade is less, and your reward might be only as big as your risk, instead of two or more times greater than your risk. Some traders prefer high probability trades, and that is mostly due to their personalities. Since they are going for high probability, the reward is small, and they are therefore scalpers.

高概率更易管理

尽管数学上适用于交易的双方，但高概率交易更易管理。这是因为低概率交易在入场后的几根K线往往看起来不好，交易者总是忍不住想要退出。如果他在交易到达目标前太多次退出，他将无法获得那些小概率的大盈亏比交易，以抵消频繁的小亏损，结果会亏钱。

高概率这边更容易管理，因为根据定义，你在每笔交易上可能赚钱。这意味着你可以偶尔弄砸交易，但长期来说仍然能获利。这听起来很棒，但却也不容易。注：因为低盈亏比。

记住，多空双方一定是共赢的局面。如果你获得高概率，对方就会获得高盈亏比。这意味着你的盈亏比就会小。在EURUSD上，如果你在5分钟图上买入一个强势突破，并在突破的第四根K线入场，你的止损可能是低点下方的50个pips之外。

此外，由于你进入较晚，交易中剩下的利润较少，你的回报可能只是与你的风险相当，而不是两倍或更多。一些交易者更喜欢高概率交易，这在很大程度上与他们的个性有关。因为他们追求高概率，回报较小，所以是刮头皮交易。

Most traders swing trade and scalp

The best scalpers can win on 90% of their trades. However, most successful traders cannot trade this intensely long term and prefer to take trades where the reward is at least twice as big as the risk. This means that they win about 40% of the time. Their initial stops might get hit about 40% of the time, and the rest of the trades are small losers and winners that mostly offset each other. Since the reward is at least twice the risk, they have a solid mathematical approach to trading.

This is the type of approach that most traders should use. In general most of their entries should be with stops, buying at one tick above the high of the prior bar and putting a protective stop one tick below the bar, or shorting at one tick below the low of the prior bar and putting the protective stop one tick above that bar.

I always want to see how the market responds when it reaches support and resistance areas, and I devote a lot of time in the course explaining how to spot the areas that the institutional computers will calculate as potential support and resistance. In the example below, I highlighted several by drawing lines on the chart.. Traders will take partial or full profits around support and resistance orders and it is therefore important to know where they are.

大多数交易员进行摆动交易和刮头皮。

最佳的刮头皮交易员可以在90%的交易中获胜。然而，大多数成功的交易员无法以这种高度强度的方式进行长期交易因为盈亏比低于1。2盈亏比的摆动交易则更好。这意味着他们大约有40%的胜率。他们的初始止损也会有大约40%的时间会触发，其余的止损则是小亏损和小盈利，基本上会相互抵消。由于奖励至少是风险的两倍，他们在交易中采用了可靠的数学方法。

这是大多数交易者应该采用的方法。一般来说，他们大多数的进场应该设置止损，即在前一根K线的高点上方一个跳点的价格买入，并将保护性止损设置在该K线之下一个跳点的位置上，或者在前一根K线的低点下方一个跳点的价格做空，并将保护性止损设置在该K线之上一个跳点的位置上。

当市场达到支撑位和阻力位时，我总是想看看它是如何反应的，并且在课程中花了很多时间来解释如何观察支撑位和阻力位，这些都是机构预判的潜在阻力支撑位。在下面的示例中，我通过画图形来突出显示了几个。交易员会在支撑位和阻力位附近部分或全部获利，因此了解这些位置非常重要。

I think that one of the most important skills to develop is the ability to assess the strength of buying and selling pressure. The highest probability trades usually occur during breakouts, and if you can learn how to determine the strength of a breakout and the likelihood of the trend continuing, you are giving yourself a strong edge.

For example, below is the same chart, but with green circles highlighting reasonable long entries on the close of bars and red circles highlight closes that are reasonable shorts as soon as the bar closes.

我认为，交易员最重要的技能是能够评估买卖压力的强度。最有可能的交易通常发生在突破时，如果你能学会如何判断突破的强度以及趋势延续的可能性，那么你将给自己一个强大的优势。

例如，下方是同一张图表，但用绿色圆圈标出了合理的买入机会，即在价格线收盘时进行买入，并用红色圆圈标出了合理的卖出机会，即在价格线收盘后进行卖出。