阿布答疑：高概率交易

Source: Ask Al: High probability trades

今天最高概率的交易是什么？

Question 1 of 3: What is the highest probability trade today?

Video duration: 6min 04sec

高概率不是一切 High probability – not the whole story

这是一个非常有趣的问题，因为它关乎了一个变量——概率，并忽略了另外两个变量——风险和回报。对我来说，最高概率的交易是第62根K线。当这根K线出现时，我说：“交易员都在这里买入，而我也在买，所以它会上涨”，对吧？因此62是最高概率的交易，但这并不意味着它是最容易的交易。它只是意味着我们从62那里达到等距测量目标的概率很高，可能有70%的概率，但风险取决于你在哪里买入。如果你在收盘价买入，你的风险可能是12个点数左右。它的回报至少和风险一样大，但由于概率是60%或70%，这是一笔很好的交易，所以这就是最高概率的交易。

Now, that is a very interesting question, okay, because it addresses one variable — probability — and it ignores two others — risk and reward.  To me, the highest probability trade was the one that I said.  When bar 62 was happening, I said, “Traders are buying,” you know, “I’m buying, it’s going up,” right? So 62 is the highest probability trade, but that does not mean it’s the easiest trade.  It just means the probability that we’re going to get some kind of a measured move out of 62 is very high, probably 70 percent.  But the risk is big depending on where you bought.  If you bought the close, you’re risking, whatever, 12 points or so.  The reward is at least as big, but with the probability 60 or 70 percent, it’s a great trade.  So that is the highest probability trade.

毫无情绪的交易员？Brain dead trader?

此外，我认为当你刚开始学习交易时，这是一笔很难执行的交易。当市场一路下跌，你心里想着：“天哪，它要跌破一月份的低点了”，而它突然反转上涨，这对初学者来说真的很困难——你其实只需变得机械化且不受情绪地行动，这就是我怎么做到的。当市场上涨到62时，我不会想：“这不可能发生，这发生得太快了，风险太大，我最好等待回调。”不，我会说：“就按下按钮，直接以市价单买入。”市场显然是上涨的，而且上涨得非常快。这对所有的多头和空头都是个大惊喜，它正在上涨得更高，对吧？每个人都必须适应这个反转。它将会持续上涨，而你按下按钮的速度越慢，你的利润就越少，风险就越大。Also, I think when you’re starting out it’s a difficult trade to take.  When the market’s going down, down, down, and you’re thinking, “Oh my gosh, it’s going to fall below the January low,” and instead it reverses up suddenly like that, it’s just really hard starting out — just become brain dead and mechanical, but that’s what I do.  It’s going up 62, I don’t think, “This can’t be happening. This is happening too fast; the risk is too big; I better wait for a pullback.”  No.  I say, “Buy the market.  Just hit the button.  Buy the market.” The market is clearly going up and it’s going up very fast.  It’s a big surprise to everyone, bulls and bears, it’s going higher, right?  Everyone is going to have to adjust to this reversal.  It’s going to go higher, and the slower you are to hit that button, the less profit you’ll have and the greater your risk will be.

要随时准备反转Be prepared for reversal

但在第62根K线的开始两分钟，市场明显发生了变化。而且，我之前说过这些跳空K线可能导致主要趋势反转，所以你必须为在当天的低点附近将发生某种反转做好准备，并且我们在日线图上处于非常关键的支撑位置，另外我们还处在60分钟图表中的通道底部。所以有很多事情同时在这里发生，很有可能导致反转。

But in those first two minutes, 62, it was clearly a change in the market.  There was clearly a change in the market.  And, you know, I said earlier these gap bars could lead to major trend reversals so you had to be prepared for some kind of a reversal around the low of the day, and we’re at such critical support on the daily chart. And we’re also at the bottom of a channel in the 60-minute chart. So there were a lot of things going on that had the potential to lead to a reversal.

在某根K线形成时进入，比起在收盘时做多或做空会更难吗？我有一个习惯，就是总是选择最糟糕的时机以市价单入场。 Question 2 of 3:  Do you think it is more difficult to enter as a bar is forming than it is to buy or sell closes? I have a habit for picking the worst possible tick to enter when I buy and sell the market.

该在收盘时入场，还是在之前？Enter on the close, or before?

一般来说，等收盘再进入更容易，因为很多时候你会提前预料到。在K线形成的三四分钟内，你可能会说：“看起来这将会是一个好的收盘价。我会在它收盘时入场。”这样你就可以做好准备。而在K线形成过程中入场，很多时候会像62那根K线那样出乎意料，执行上非常困难。50和12那两根K线明显是收盘价做空的机会。尤其是50那根是非常地迅速，所以当我有什么顾虑的时候，我会选择以市价入场。在大多数软件上，你都会有一个按钮，上面写着“市价卖出”或“市价买入”，我在50、62和64这样的K线上经常使用它们。当市场明显快速上涨或下跌时，你知道它将会走得更高或更低（取决于是涨势还是跌势），我只需点击“市价买入”或“市价卖出”。In general, it’s easier to enter on the close because a lot of times you anticipate it.  Three or four minutes into the bar you’ll say, “Yeah, this looks like a good close.  I’m going to buy it when it closes,” so you can be ready for it. And buying as the bar is forming, a lot of times — like 62 — it’s a surprise, and it’s hard to do.  50, 12 — those were clearly Sell The Close. And 50 especially happened very, very quickly so, when in doubt — when I’m in doubt — I just enter at the market.  On most software, you have some kind of a button that says, you know, Sell the market or Buy the market, and I use that a lot in bars like 50 and like bars 62 and 64. When it’s clearly moving very quickly and you know it’s going to go higher or lower, depending on if it’s a bull or a bear, I just hit “buy the market” or “sell the market.”

等待确认 Waiting for confirmation

[关于选择在最糟糕的时机入场的习惯] 你所做的反而是在等待，直到你确定市场会上涨，所以你最终会在高位买入，而此时经验丰富的交易员已经开始部分盈利了，然后市场回调。而我不会像你这么做，我就直接以62的收盘价入场。这样你才可以在低于差不多12个点数的低价入场。这其实没什么好顾虑的，因为你知道它会上涨；你知道至少会有达到等距测量的目标，所以只要你的手数足够小，你就有60%或70%的机会获得与风险相当的回报，这是一笔不错的交易。

[Ref picking worst possible tick habit] What you’re doing is you’re waiting until you’re convinced that the market is going up. So you end up buying the high and at that point experienced traders are taking partial profits, and you get a pullback.  I don’t have a problem with that.  Buying the 62 close, who cares, right?  So you’re buying whatever, 12 points off the low.  That’s fine.  You know it’s going higher; you know it’s going up for at least a measured move, so as long as you can trade small enough, you have a 60 or 70 percent chance of making a reward equal to your risk.  That is a good trade.

你的交易是否合理？Does your trade make sense?

所以，我不会担心以市价单入场；我只会担心你选择的行动是否合理。买入63的收盘价、62的收盘价，这都是合理的。如果你设置了正确的止损并获得了足够的利润，那就是合理的。所以你进场的时间比其他交易员晚一些并不重要，重要的是你所做的是合理的。

So, I wouldn’t worry about buying or selling the market; all I would worry about is whether or not whatever you choose to do makes sense, right?  So buying the 63 close, 62 close, it made sense.  So if you used the right stop and taken an adequate profit, it made sense so it does not matter that you’re entering a little bit later than other traders.  What you’re doing makes sense.

阿布，你能否谈谈你是如何交易从62到65这上涨趋势吗？你进行了多少笔的交易？什么时候平仓？使用市价单、限价单，还是进行一、两点数的刮头皮交易？ Question 3 of 3: Al, can you talk about how you traded the bull spike 62 to 65?  How many trades? When flat? Market orders, limit orders, one or two point scalps?

交易员都在买入，所以你该买入！Traders are buying – so buy!

我记得我的第一笔交易，我在62迅速上涨时买入了。我不记得我当时我在交易室说了什么，但我肯定是说这会上涨，交易员都在买入，我甚至可能说了我自己也在买入。所以第一笔的交易，老实说，我不知道赚了多少。我知道至少有一笔交易赚了四到五个点数，然后我记得我后来还进行了两个点数的刮头皮交易，我不记得是否还买入了其他的。对于这第一笔交易，我只是点击了“市价买入”，然后在价格上涨到相当高的位置时获利了。然后我买入了63的收盘价。我记得我在63的收盘价上赚了四个点数。但我不记得我是否进行了第三笔交易，还有我还做了些什么。在这个位置，我想我买入了69的低点，然后就没有继续交易了。我想我是获得了两个点数的利润，然后就没有继续了。

I think the first trade, I bought 62 as it was quickly turning up.  I don’t remember what I said, but I said something to the effect that this is going up; traders are buying.  I may even has said I’m buying.  So the first trade, to be honest, I don’t know how much I made.  I know I made at least four or five points on one trade and then I think I switched to two-point scalps. And, I don’t remember, I may have bought. This first one, I just hit “buy the market” and then when it got up pretty high I just took a profit. And then I bought the 63 close.  I think I went for four points on the 63 close.  I don’t remember.  And I don’t remember if I took a third trade up there or not.  And what did I do?  In here, I think I bought the 69 low and that was it.  I think I took two points and that was it.

没有优势就该停止交易No edge, no trade

在价格上涨到74时，我在讨论了我们是否该在这里买入，但我已经开始感到疲倦。如果我状态不佳，那么我与高盛集团竞争的优势就不存在了。所以如果我状态不佳，我就只会坐在那里等待。你知道，我是个人，对吧？我不是机器，每个优秀的交易员只能占有一点点优势，因为他要与其他非常聪明、经验丰富的交易者竞争。如果你状态不佳，你在最佳状态下所占有的任何优势都会消失。而如果你没有优势，那么就不该进行任何的交易。

I debated about buying as 74 was going up, but I was tired and if I’m not at my best whatever little edge I have over Goldman Sachs is non-existent. So if I’m not at my best, I just sit and I wait.  You know, I’m a body, right? I’m not a machine and, every good trader can only have a small edge because he’s competing against really smart, experienced people. So if you’re not at your best, whatever edge you have when you are at your best, is not there.  So if you do not have an advantage, it does not make sense taking a trade.