The Rule of Ten by Nine Transitions：修订间差异
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== ''The rule of ten: A trading plan<ref>http://ninetrans.blogspot.com/2017/06/nine-transitions-book.html</ref>'' == | |||
''You are a rank beginner and you have no idea how to start trading. This is my advice on how to get started. The first step is to trade on SIM only until you unlock the following achievements.'' | |||
== The rule of ten | === '''''The rule of ten''''' === | ||
=== ''' | ==== '''''1. At least 10 points every week''''' ==== | ||
==== ''' | ==== '''''2. For 10 consecutive weeks''''' ==== | ||
==== ''' | ==== '''''3. With at least 10 days of no losing trades''''' ==== | ||
==== ''' | ==== '''''4. At least 10 consecutive winning days''''' ==== | ||
==== ''' | ==== '''''5. Biggest losing day at most half of average winning day (i.e. if your average winning day is +2, your max loss day should be -1)''''' ==== | ||
''All the above proves is that your technique is right. You should now start trading real money. You will probably start to lose money right away. That's ok, because you know that your technique is right and you only need to work on your emotions. If you are entering a lot more trades per day than you would mark on the chart at the end of day, then you have to work on your emotions. Eagerness and impatience are signs of a losing inexperienced trader. Caution and patience are signs of an experienced winning trader. When you feel any urgency to enter a trade mark that on your chart and see how it went at the end of the day.'' | |||
'''''My best trades are A2, W1P, DP and fBO.'''<ref>A2: A second attempt to reverse a pullback move near the ema. A second failed attempt to reverse the trend and therefore a continuation signal. If its too far from the ema it may not qualify to be an A2. [AA2: A second entry for an A2, taken perhaps because the first signal required a large stop or had a large overlap.] | |||
'''My best trades are A2, W1P, DP and fBO.'''<ref>A2: A second attempt to reverse a pullback move near the ema. A second failed attempt to reverse the trend and therefore a continuation signal. If its too far from the ema it may not qualify to be an A2. [AA2: A second entry for an A2, taken perhaps because the first signal required a large stop or had a large overlap.] | |||
W1P: The first pullback that allows an entry in the new direction after a W reversal [where W stands for wedge reversal: Three pushes up with the third push overshooting a trend channel line or at least touching it. A reversal signal makes it a W reversal.] | W1P: The first pullback that allows an entry in the new direction after a W reversal [where W stands for wedge reversal: Three pushes up with the third push overshooting a trend channel line or at least touching it. A reversal signal makes it a W reversal.] | ||
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BO: breakout | BO: breakout | ||
fBO: failed BO</ref> You should start with A2 and stick to A2 only. Why? Because trying to trade W1P may trick you into seeing reversals everywhere. Similarly DP and fBO may trick you into seeing breakouts and failed breakouts everywhere. With A2, there is a very good chance the trend is going to continue. | fBO: failed BO</ref> You should start with A2 and stick to A2 only. Why? Because trying to trade W1P may trick you into seeing reversals everywhere. Similarly DP and fBO may trick you into seeing breakouts and failed breakouts everywhere. With A2, there is a very good chance the trend is going to continue.'' | ||
Trading SIM is like juggling 4 flaming knives while riding a unicycle. Trading real money is the same, except a monkey sitting on your head and messing up your act. So the first thing you do is juggle only one flaming knife. A small one. That's A2. The next thing you do is get off the unicycle and stand on firm ground. That's basically watching only one chart, either the regular trading hours or 24 hour chart and nothing more. There really is not much you can do about the monkey, just hope he gets older and calmer with time. | ''Trading SIM is like juggling 4 flaming knives while riding a unicycle. Trading real money is the same, except a monkey sitting on your head and messing up your act. So the first thing you do is juggle only one flaming knife. A small one. That's A2. The next thing you do is get off the unicycle and stand on firm ground. That's basically watching only one chart, either the regular trading hours or 24 hour chart and nothing more. There really is not much you can do about the monkey, just hope he gets older and calmer with time.'' | ||
'''Once you consistently make money with A2 and satisfy the rule of 10 with real money, add W1P only to SIM until rule of 10 is unlocked for it. Then you can trade both with real money. Then you can add DP to rule of 10 and finally fBO.''' | '''''Once you consistently make money with A2 and satisfy the rule of 10 with real money, add W1P only to SIM until rule of 10 is unlocked for it. Then you can trade both with real money. Then you can add DP to rule of 10 and finally fBO.''''' | ||
At this point you should be catching most of the big moves of any day, dont worry about any small moves you have missed. You can't hope to catch every move with high probability. | ''At this point you should be catching most of the big moves of any day, dont worry about any small moves you have missed. You can't hope to catch every move with high probability.'' | ||
'''Finally you can choose to add the following: failed first channel breakout, G2,'''<ref>G: Gap bar. The first bar in a down move whose high is below ema or first bar in an up move whose low is above ema. If this bar is bullish in a bear move, its a buy signal and vice versa. | '''''Finally you can choose to add the following: failed first channel breakout, G2,'''<ref>G: Gap bar. The first bar in a down move whose high is below ema or first bar in an up move whose low is above ema. If this bar is bullish in a bear move, its a buy signal and vice versa. | ||
G2: If the G fill attempt fails, a second G bar is G2. This is a higher probability trade. </ref> '''1st pullback of the day, first reversal of the day, L1 and H1 on hard trends and expanding triangle.''' | G2: If the G fill attempt fails, a second G bar is G2. This is a higher probability trade. </ref> '''1st pullback of the day, first reversal of the day, L1 and H1'''<ref>L2: The first time a bar ticks below the low of a previous bar in an up move. First attempt to reverse an up move. | ||
H2: The first time a bar ticks above the high of a previous bar in a down move. First attempt to reverse a down move. </ref> '''on hard trends and expanding triangle.''''' | |||
''Note that having a lot of trades in your toolbox is not the important factor. What is much more important is how consistent you are with any given trade.'' | |||
[[分类:NINETRANS]] | [[分类:NINETRANS]] | ||
[[分类:Trading Plan]] | |||
<references /> | <references /> | ||
[[分类:Market Cycle]] | |||
[[分类: | [[分类:SETUP]] | ||
2023年4月5日 (三) 19:38的最新版本
The rule of ten: A trading plan[1][编辑 | 编辑源代码]
You are a rank beginner and you have no idea how to start trading. This is my advice on how to get started. The first step is to trade on SIM only until you unlock the following achievements.
The rule of ten[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
1. At least 10 points every week[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
2. For 10 consecutive weeks[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
3. With at least 10 days of no losing trades[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
4. At least 10 consecutive winning days[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
5. Biggest losing day at most half of average winning day (i.e. if your average winning day is +2, your max loss day should be -1)[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
All the above proves is that your technique is right. You should now start trading real money. You will probably start to lose money right away. That's ok, because you know that your technique is right and you only need to work on your emotions. If you are entering a lot more trades per day than you would mark on the chart at the end of day, then you have to work on your emotions. Eagerness and impatience are signs of a losing inexperienced trader. Caution and patience are signs of an experienced winning trader. When you feel any urgency to enter a trade mark that on your chart and see how it went at the end of the day.
My best trades are A2, W1P, DP and fBO.[2] You should start with A2 and stick to A2 only. Why? Because trying to trade W1P may trick you into seeing reversals everywhere. Similarly DP and fBO may trick you into seeing breakouts and failed breakouts everywhere. With A2, there is a very good chance the trend is going to continue.
Trading SIM is like juggling 4 flaming knives while riding a unicycle. Trading real money is the same, except a monkey sitting on your head and messing up your act. So the first thing you do is juggle only one flaming knife. A small one. That's A2. The next thing you do is get off the unicycle and stand on firm ground. That's basically watching only one chart, either the regular trading hours or 24 hour chart and nothing more. There really is not much you can do about the monkey, just hope he gets older and calmer with time.
Once you consistently make money with A2 and satisfy the rule of 10 with real money, add W1P only to SIM until rule of 10 is unlocked for it. Then you can trade both with real money. Then you can add DP to rule of 10 and finally fBO.
At this point you should be catching most of the big moves of any day, dont worry about any small moves you have missed. You can't hope to catch every move with high probability.
Finally you can choose to add the following: failed first channel breakout, G2,[3] 1st pullback of the day, first reversal of the day, L1 and H1[4] on hard trends and expanding triangle.
Note that having a lot of trades in your toolbox is not the important factor. What is much more important is how consistent you are with any given trade.
- ↑ http://ninetrans.blogspot.com/2017/06/nine-transitions-book.html
- ↑ A2: A second attempt to reverse a pullback move near the ema. A second failed attempt to reverse the trend and therefore a continuation signal. If its too far from the ema it may not qualify to be an A2. [AA2: A second entry for an A2, taken perhaps because the first signal required a large stop or had a large overlap.] W1P: The first pullback that allows an entry in the new direction after a W reversal [where W stands for wedge reversal: Three pushes up with the third push overshooting a trend channel line or at least touching it. A reversal signal makes it a W reversal.] TTR: tight trading range BO: breakout fBO: failed BO
- ↑ G: Gap bar. The first bar in a down move whose high is below ema or first bar in an up move whose low is above ema. If this bar is bullish in a bear move, its a buy signal and vice versa. G2: If the G fill attempt fails, a second G bar is G2. This is a higher probability trade.
- ↑ L2: The first time a bar ticks below the low of a previous bar in an up move. First attempt to reverse an up move. H2: The first time a bar ticks above the high of a previous bar in a down move. First attempt to reverse a down move.