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| Probability Table
| | == In Trend == |
| {| class="wikitable"
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| |+Probability Table
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| !Probability
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| !Items
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| |-
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| |90%
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| * 90% bars on the chart are within trading range<ref>BTC 02C.</ref>.
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| * In a strong bull trend day (more than 50 bars above MA), '''99.5% of the time there are at least 3 bars with L below EMA'''.
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| * No matter how strong the trend is, '''99.5% of the day it gets to EMA''' sometime during the day.
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| * No matter how strong the trend is, '''99.5% of the day there is at least one bar closes below the EMA'''. Example of the 0.5%: [[20221122]].
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| * 90% of the time the BO phase is followed by a PB, and then a channel(aka [[SC]]) or TR, only 10% of the chance the bull BO reverses, usually as a parabolic wedge top. <ref>49A</ref>
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| * There is 90% chance of at least one swing trade everyday that starts with '''a good signal bar''', typically goes 40% of recent average day's range<ref>[[20230329]]</ref>, has '''two or more legs''', has '''a reward at least twice the risk''', and '''lasts at least 1-2 hours'''.
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| |80%
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| * '''The 80/20 Rule:''' in a trend, 80% of reversal attempt fails; in a TR, 80% of BO attempt fails.<ref>https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/price-action-fundamentals/video-13a-always-in/</ref>
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| * when big gap down, 85% chance of PB in 1st two hours.
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| * 80% of the time when pullback to EMA comes after 40 or more bars below the EMA, there will be a selloff that will test the low, however only in 20% of the time the SPBRT sells off to far below the old low with the day closing on the low. Example [[20221206]].
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| |70%
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| *if a bar is exceptionally bigger than other bars(i.e. surprise bar), 70% chance of MM, especially when it has ok FT (at least doji).<ref>[[:Category:Exceptionally Big Bar|Category:Exceptionally Big Bar]]</ref><ref>[[Always in Short]]</ref>
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| **after 2 or more consecutive big bull bars closing on their highs, and with little overlap, there is 70% chance of at least a MM up<ref>49A</ref>.
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| *probability of success of 70 percent or better (reward has to be '''at least half as big as risk''' just to break even): | | * In a trend, '''only''' 20% of reversal succeed. (The 80/20 Rule) |
| **Scalps, but since most traders cannot consistently pick trades with a 70 percent chance of success, they should trade a scalp only if the reward is at least as large as the risk. '''For example, if you believe that a two-point stop is needed in the Emini, take the trade only if at least a two-point reward is reasonable'''<ref>TR book, chapter 25</ref>.
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| *if bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of Triangle<ref>[[Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High|''Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High'']]</ref>.
| | == In Trading Range == |
| *70% outside down days closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only 20% closes above middle point<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/''</ref>.
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| *when big gap down, 70% chance of swing down after 10am.
| | * In a TR, '''only''' 20% of BO succeed. (The 80/20 Rule) |
| *''if yesterday was climactic, there is 75% chance of trading range for a few hours today''<ref>discord from brad wolff on 7-20-2022</ref>''.''
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| * when big gap down, 75% chance trending trading range day.
| | == Others == |
| * 75% chance the BO above a [[Bull Channel]] fails within the next 5 bars. | | |
| |-
| | === Gap === |
| |60%
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| | * Only 20% of time the '''first bar''' leads to H or L of the day. |
| *Probability of success of 60 percent or better ('''reward has to be at least as big as risk to break even''')<ref>TR book, chapter 25</ref>:
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| **Buying a '''high 2 pullback to the moving average''' in a bull trend.
| | === Breakout === |
| **Selling a '''low 2 pullback to the moving average''' in a bear trend.
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| **Buying a '''wedge bull flag pullback''' in a bull trend.
| | * ? |
| **Selling a '''wedge bear flag pullback''' in a bear trend.
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| **Buying a '''breakout pullback''' '''from a breakout of a bull flag''' in a bull trend.
| | === Day Structure === |
| **Selling a '''breakout pullback''' '''from a breakout of a bear flag''' in a bear trend.
| | * 25% of the time '''after a buy climax day''', you get an hour or two rally the next day. |
| **Buying a '''high 1 pullback in a strong bull spike''' in a bull trend, but not after a buy climax.
| | * When there are 2 big bear bars late in the bear trend, only 20% chance of [[MG]] because of the extreme selling. See example in [[:Category:SX]]. |
| **Selling a '''low 1 pullback in a strong bear spike''' in a bear trend, but not after a sell climax.
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| **Shorting at the top of a trading range, especially if it is a second entry.
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| **Buying at the bottom of a trading range, especially if it is a second entry.
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| **Trend reversals:
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| ***After a strong break of the trend line, look for a reversal '''after a test of the trend's extreme''' where there is a good reversal signal bar. Traders are looking to buy a higher low or a lower low at a bottom, or to short a higher high or a lower high at a top.<ref>''note that the 60% probability here is based on 1:1 RR as mentioned at the beginning, if 2:1 RR i.e. a swing, the probability will be around only 40%: https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/price-action/10-best-price-action-trading-patterns/#1-major-trend-reversals''</ref> | |
| ***Strong final flag reversal.
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| ***Buying a third or fourth push down in a [[bear stairs pattern]] for a test of the low of the prior push down.
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| ***Selling a third or fourth push up in a [[bull stairs pattern]] for a test of the high of the prior push up.
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| **'''Entering using limit orders'''; this requires more experience reading charts, because the trader is entering in a market that is going in the opposite direction to the trade. However, experienced traders can reliably use limit or market orders with these setups:
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| ***'''Buying a bull spike''' in a strong bull breakout at the market or at the close of the bar, or on a limit order [[at or below the low of the prior bar]]<ref>''if the market falls to the low of the prior bar, is this still a reliable strong bull spike? 7-25-2022, paul''</ref> (entering in spikes requires a wider stop and the spike happens quickly, so this combination is difficult for many traders).
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| ***'''Selling a bear spike''' in a strong bear breakout at the market or at the close of the bar, or on a limit order at or above the high of the prior bar (entering in spikes requires a wider stop and the spike happens quickly, so this combination is difficult for many traders).
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| ***Buying a bear breakout at around a measured move, if the breakout is not too strong—for example, if the range is about four points tall in the Emini, buying on a limit order at four points below the range, risking four points, and expecting a test of the breakout point. Only very experienced traders should consider this.
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| ***Selling a bull breakout at around a measured move, if the breakout is not too strong—for example, if the range is about four points tall in the Emini, selling on a limit order at four points above the range, risking four points, and expecting a test of the breakout point. Only very experienced traders should consider this.
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| ***Buying at or below a low 1 or 2 weak signal bar on a limit order in a possible new bull trend after a strong reversal or at the bottom of a trading range. | |
| ***Shorting at or above a high 1 or 2 weak signal bar on a limit order in a possible new bear trend after a strong reversal or at the top of a trading range.
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| ***Buying at or below the prior bar on a limit order in a quiet bull flag at the moving average.
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| ***Shorting at or above the prior bar on a limit order in a quiet bear flag at the moving average.
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| ***Buying below a bull bar that breaks above a bull flag, anticipating a breakout pullback.
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| ***Selling above a bear bar that breaks below a bear flag, anticipating a breakout pullback.
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| *60% chance a climactic sell off for 15-20 bars on the open evolves into TR<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/''</ref>.
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| *60% of trending TRs reverse and test into early TR<ref>BTC 45A</ref>. This means traders sell the high of prior TR and scale in higher can make money.
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| *when big gap down, 60% chance of swing down in 1st hour.
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| |50%
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| * 50% of strong moves on the open reverse.<ref>[[Always in Short]]</ref>
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| * FOMC breakout has 50% chance of reversing, like a breakout on the open<ref>https://www.papals.live/index.php?title=20221102&venotify=created</ref>.
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| * when yesterday was a buy climax, there is a 50% chance of follow through buying in next day starting from 1st hour<ref>[[Encyclopedia:Yesterday Was Buy Climax]]</ref>. Vice versa.
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| * when there are 2 big bear bars late in the bear trend, 50% chance the selloff has ended(''which means the probability is not high enough for a scalp'') and 50% chance of one more small leg down. See example in [[:Category:SX|Category:SX]].
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| * when market is in BOM, there is 50% chance successful breakout up or down, and then about a measured move based on the height of trading range. Also there is 50% chance 1st breakout up or down will reverse.
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| |-
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| |40%
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| * An '''average''' MTR setup has about a 40% chance of leading to a profitable swing<ref>[[CHAPTER 3 Major Trend Reversal]]</ref>.
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| |-
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| |30%
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| * An '''average''' MTR setup has about a 30% chance of a small loss, and a 30% chance of a small profit<ref>[[CHAPTER 3 Major Trend Reversal]]</ref>.
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| * '''Major bull surprise''' usually only have 30% chance of a bear trend<ref>https://www.papals.live/index.php?title=20221102&venotify=created</ref>. Vice versa<ref>''See [[20221129]], major bear surprise so 30% chance of bull trend reversal.''</ref>.
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| * when big gap down, only '''35%''' chance gap will close today. | |
| |-
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| |20%
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| *''only 20% of time the first bar leads to H or L of the day''<ref>''Brad wolf, discord chat, 7-22-2022''</ref>
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| *'''The 80/20 Rule:''' in a trend, 20% of reversal succeed; in a TR, 20% of BO succeed.
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| * 25% of the time after a buy climax day, you get an hour or two rally the next day<ref>''PriceActionRoles mentioned this on 8-1-2022: This specific open is explained in BTC Brooks Course Chapter 48A-B-C-D-E-F (6 videos. video 5 and 6)''</ref>.
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| * when there are 2 big bear bars late in the bear trend, only 20% chance of MG because of the extreme selling. See example in [[:Category:SX|Category:SX]]. | |
| * 80% of the time when pullback to EMA comes after 40 or more bars below the EMA, there will be a selloff that will test the low, however only in '''20% of the time''' the SPBRT sells off to far below the old low with the day closing on the low. | | * 80% of the time when pullback to EMA comes after 40 or more bars below the EMA, there will be a selloff that will test the low, however only in '''20% of the time''' the SPBRT sells off to far below the old low with the day closing on the low. |
| |-
| | <references /> |
| |10%
| | [[Category:PCP|%20]] |
| |10% of time, market is in breakout, price moves fast to find new TR<ref>BTC 02C.</ref>.
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| |} | |
