Category:70PCP：修订间差异

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== Others ==
== Others ==
=== Gap ===
*When big gap down, 75% chance trending trading range day.
*When big gap down, 70% chance of swing down after '''10am'''.


=== Breakout ===
=== Breakout ===
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*After '''2 or more''' consecutive '''big bull bars''' closing on their highs, and with '''little overlap''', there is 70% chance of at least a MM up<ref>''Course 49A''</ref>.
*After '''2 or more''' consecutive '''big bull bars''' closing on their highs, and with '''little overlap''', there is 70% chance of at least a MM up<ref>''Course 49A''</ref>.
*If bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of triangle<ref>[[Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High|''Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High'']]</ref>.
*If bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of triangle<ref>[[Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High|''Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High'']]</ref>.
*Probability of success of 70% or better (reward has to be '''at least half as big as risk''' just to break even):
**Scalps, but since most traders cannot consistently pick trades with a 70 percent chance of success, they should trade a scalp only if the reward is at least as large as the risk. '''For example, if you believe that a two-point stop is needed in the Emini, take the trade only if at least a two-point reward is reasonable'''<ref>TR book, chapter 25</ref>.


=== Day Structure ===
=== Day Structure ===
*70% '''outside down days''' closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only '''20%''' closes above middle point<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/''</ref>.
*70% '''outside down''' days closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only '''20%''' closes above middle point<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/''</ref>.
 
=== Gap ===
In bull case:
*When big gap down, 75% chance trending trading range day.
*When big gap down, 70% chance of swing down after '''10am'''.


=== Yesterday ===
*If '''yesterday was climactic''' ([[YBX]] or [[YSX]]), there is 75% chance of '''trading range for a few hours today'''.
*If yesterday was climactic, there is 75% chance of trading range for a few hours today.
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[[Category:PCP]]
[[Category:PCP|%70]]

2024年5月2日 (四) 11:08的最新版本

In Trend[编辑 | 编辑源代码]

In Trading Range[编辑 | 编辑源代码]

Others[编辑 | 编辑源代码]

Gap[编辑 | 编辑源代码]

  • When big gap down, 75% chance trending trading range day.
  • When big gap down, 70% chance of swing down after 10am.

Breakout[编辑 | 编辑源代码]

  • 75% chance the BO above a Bull Channel fails within the next 5 bars.
  • If a bar is exceptionally bigger than other bars(i.e. surprise bar), 70% chance of MM, especially when it has ok FT (at least doji).
  • After 2 or more consecutive big bull bars closing on their highs, and with little overlap, there is 70% chance of at least a MM up[1].
  • If bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of triangle[2].

Day Structure[编辑 | 编辑源代码]

  • 70% outside down days closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only 20% closes above middle point[3].
  • If yesterday was climactic (YBX or YSX), there is 75% chance of trading range for a few hours today.
  1. ↑ Course 49A
  2. ↑ Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High
  3. ↑ https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/

Follow Through. ➟ More about FT

Measured Move. ➟ More about MM

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