Category:70PCP：修订间差异
无编辑摘要 |
无编辑摘要 |
||
| 第1行： | 第1行： | ||
== In Trend == | |||
* | == In Trading Range == | ||
== Others == | |||
=== Breakout === | |||
*If a bar is '''exceptionally''' '''bigger''' than other bars(i.e. surprise bar), 70% chance of MM, especially when it has ok FT (at least doji).<ref>[[:Category:Exceptionally Big Bar|Category:Exceptionally Big Bar]]</ref><ref>[[Always in Short]]</ref> | |||
*After '''2 or more''' consecutive '''big bull bars''' closing on their highs, and with '''little overlap''', there is 70% chance of at least a MM up<ref>49A</ref>. | |||
*If bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of Triangle<ref>[[Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High|''Encyclopedia:Major Trend Reversal Down from Higher High'']]</ref>. | |||
*75% chance the BO above a [[Bull Channel|Bull '''Channel''']] fails within the '''next 5 bars'''. | |||
*Probability of success of 70% or better (reward has to be '''at least half as big as risk''' just to break even): | |||
**Scalps, but since most traders cannot consistently pick trades with a 70 percent chance of success, they should trade a scalp only if the reward is at least as large as the risk. '''For example, if you believe that a two-point stop is needed in the Emini, take the trade only if at least a two-point reward is reasonable'''<ref>TR book, chapter 25</ref>. | **Scalps, but since most traders cannot consistently pick trades with a 70 percent chance of success, they should trade a scalp only if the reward is at least as large as the risk. '''For example, if you believe that a two-point stop is needed in the Emini, take the trade only if at least a two-point reward is reasonable'''<ref>TR book, chapter 25</ref>. | ||
* | |||
=== Day Structure === | |||
* | *70% '''outside down days''' closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only '''20%''' closes above middle point<ref>''https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-big-round-number-magnet/''</ref>. | ||
* | |||
=== Gap === | |||
In bull case: | |||
*When big gap down, 75% chance trending trading range day. | |||
*When big gap down, 70% chance of swing down after '''10am'''. | |||
=== Yesterday === | |||
*If yesterday was climactic, there is 75% chance of trading range for a few hours today. | |||
<references /> | |||
[[Category:PCP]] | |||
2024年5月2日 (四) 11:00的版本
In Trend[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
In Trading Range[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
Others[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
Breakout[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
- If a bar is exceptionally bigger than other bars(i.e. surprise bar), 70% chance of MM, especially when it has ok FT (at least doji).[1][2]
- After 2 or more consecutive big bull bars closing on their highs, and with little overlap, there is 70% chance of at least a MM up[3].
- If bull is trying to BO above of a triangle, 70% chance of PB to apex of Triangle[4].
- 75% chance the BO above a Bull Channel fails within the next 5 bars.
- Probability of success of 70% or better (reward has to be at least half as big as risk just to break even):
- Scalps, but since most traders cannot consistently pick trades with a 70 percent chance of success, they should trade a scalp only if the reward is at least as large as the risk. For example, if you believe that a two-point stop is needed in the Emini, take the trade only if at least a two-point reward is reasonable[5].
Day Structure[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
- 70% outside down days closes at lower 1/3 of the range, only 20% closes above middle point[6].
Gap[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
In bull case:
- When big gap down, 75% chance trending trading range day.
- When big gap down, 70% chance of swing down after 10am.
Yesterday[编辑 | 编辑源代码]
- If yesterday was climactic, there is 75% chance of trading range for a few hours today.
本分类目前不含有任何页面或媒体文件。